|
Howdy Reader,
Welcome in. Hope your weekend’s been full of good people, cold drinks, and maybe a few mock drafts you pretended not to care about at the BBQ.
While the rest of the world is gearing up for fireworks and hot takes, you’re here. Part of the Footballguys crew that knows fantasy championships are won with preparation, not procrastination.
And we’ve got your back.
Today, Gary Davenport continues his killer Draft Strategy Guide series. This time zeroing in on the quarterback position. Whether you wait, stack, or go early, Gary lays out a roadmap built from real experience.
We’ve also got plenty more: deep dives, value plays, and of course, Cecil Lammey has the News and Notes to keep your edge sharp and your league mates guessing.
Thanks for being here. Let’s build something great this season. Together.
J
|
|
|
What's New At Footballguys
-
2025 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide - Avoid traps and find league-winners like Caleb Williams and David Njoku with Gary Davenport’s 2025 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide, a four-part series designed to sharpen your plan for every roster slot.
-
Reading the New Defense: Chicago Bears – What does Dennis Allen's aggressive defense mean for T.J. Edwards and your IDP draft board? Tripp Brebner III breaks it down.
-
IDP Position Primer: Defensive Tackles and Cornerbacks – Wait long enough, and value finds you. Gary Davenport reveals why patience pays off at DT and CB.
|
2025 Fantasy Draft Strategy Guide: Quarterbacks
By Gary Davenport - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Gary Davenport's Strategy Guide by Position
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
An Overview of the Quarterback Position
In the NFL, there's no question that quarterback is the most important position. There are two types of NFL franchises: those that have a franchise quarterback and those that do not. The 16 highest-paid players in the league are all quarterbacks, headlined by Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys at $60 million per season.
Quarterbacks get the cash. The supermodel girlfriends. Most of the awards. They are the kings of the NFL. If your team doesn't have one, you're dead.
In fantasy football, however, it's a different story. Sure, having an elite quarterback on your fantasy squad like Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens might seem great. Jackson was the overall high scorer in fantasy football a season ago.
But depending on the format, a measure of patience is usually the wiser course of action under center, whether it's waiting for the last "elite" option, waiting a bit longer still for a mid-range option at the position or even engaging in a staredown with your leaguemates to see who will be the last team to draft a starter.
Let's take a look at the differing draft strategies at quarterback--and some values, busts, and sleepers at the position this year.
Quarterback Draft Strategies
Door No. 1: The Elite Guys
According to (admittedly) early ADP information, five quarterbacks are being drafted in the first four rounds of standard formats--Jackson, Allen, Washington's Jayden Daniels, Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts. The earliest (Allen) is coming off the board with the 19th overall pick.
Taking a quarterback that early is usually a mistake.
The reason is one of those fantasy buzzwords that fantasy analysts love so much.
Positional Scarcity.
PositionBest Starter FPPGWorst Starter FPPGDifferenceQuarterback28.721.96.8Running Back22.012.59.5Wide Receiver23.712.411.3Tight End15.810.25.6
Now, this is a ridiculously oversimplified take on positional scarcity--astrophysics in crayon. But that doesn't mean it's not accurate. Simply put, if you're playing in a league that starts just one quarterback, then 12 quarterbacks (and tight ends, usually) are in starting lineups each week, as opposed to 24 running backs and 36 wide receivers (not including "flex" spots).
The drop-off from QB1 to QB12 (in terms of fantasy points per game in 2024) wasn't as steep as from RB1 to RB24 or from WR1 to WR36. It was wider than at tight end, but that's because tight end is a post-apocalyptic hellscape in fantasy football right now.
We'll get to that eventually.
Generally speaking, the "edge" you gain by drafting an elite quarterback at ADP isn't as big as the hole you're digging at running back or wide receiver. Sure, if you hit on values in the backfield and at wideout, you can overcome that, and the longer your leaguemates wait to break the seal on the position, the easier it is to justify pulling the trigger. But as a rule, you don't want to be first under center.
Never mind that the first QB drafted and the highest-scoring fantasy quarterback at season's end are almost never the same guy. Allen was the first signal-caller off the board last year, too. He was fourth in fantasy points per game--three whole points per game ahead of Denver's Bo Nix (QB12 in FPPG).
That's not value. Or even especially close.
CONTINUED...
|
Denver Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins' workload remains to be seen, according to head coach Sean Payton. 'Don't try to figure out the club right now,' Payton said. 'It's way too early.'
Our view: This is a situation to monitor during training camp and the preseason. Dobbins will split time with rookie second-round pick RJ Harvey in the Broncos backfield. Who is the lead back? That's uncertain right now, but we could see Dobbins getting a majority of the work early in the season. As Harvey proves himself in pass protection, the electric rookie back could shoulder more of the load. This is a two-headed RBBC where value could vary as the season goes on, plus Dobbins has missed more games than he's played in his pro career. At this time, both backs are flex plays with upside in a Sean Payton offense as he looks for his new Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara combination.
Back to Top
|
Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is 'definitely more comfortable' this season, according to QB Kyler Murray. 'I can see it out there on the field, and I think that'll only allow him to play faster, be the guy that we all know he can be,' Murray said.
Our view: That's great news for Harrison, Cardinals fans, Murray himself, and - oh yeah - Fantasy GMs out there. Harrison has dynamic talent, and he could end up becoming one of the best wide receivers in the entire league. Currently, Harrison's ADP is WR18 (consensus) but the ability and opportunity will be there for him to outperform that position. If/when he hits, Harrison has WR1 set-it-and-forget-it potential every week....it's just a matter of when it all clicks for him.
Back to Top
|
3. CLE: CLE not expected to trade either rookie QB
Source: NFL Network - Cameron Wolfe
The Cleveland Browns are unlikely to trade QB Dillon Gabriel or QB Shedeur Sanders before the beginning of the regular season, even though neither of them is expected to win the starting job, according to NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe.
Our view: The team believes in Gabriel despite the limitations to his game, and Sanders has a great pure-passer skill set. It was an interesting approach to take both in the same draft, and that's a strategy that has worked before in various ways (Robert Griffin, Kirk Cousins anyone?). We think Joe Flacco begins the season as the starter, but there's a good chance that both Gabriel and Sanders see the field in 2025. This quarterback situation is a bit of a mess, so keep that in mind when considering all Browns skill position players for your fantasy team.
Back to Top
|
4. CHI: Luther Burden to have a role?
Source: Marquee Sports Network - Scott Bair
Chicago Bears WR Luther Burden III could make an 'instant impact' for the offense, according to Scott Bair of Marquee Sports Network.
Our view: Anything is possible, and Burden is a talented player with the ball in his hands. He's a run-after-the-catch specialist who is tough to bring down in the open field. It will be interesting to see how the Bears use him in the new-look offense. Burden was sidelined through mandatory minicamp, but he'll be good to go for training camp and the preseason. Whether it's outside or from the slot, Burden gives HC Ben Johnson a versatile chess piece to attack defenses with. Burden is a depth piece right now with flex appeal in his rookie season.
Back to Top
|
5. PHI: Will Shipley expected to be pass catcher
Source: PhiladelphiaEagles.com - Glenn Erby
Philadelphia Eagles RB Will Shipley is expected to be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield for the Eagles this upcoming season.
Our view: Shipley will take the role Kenneth Gainwell had last year if he can beat out AJ Dillon for the no.2 spot on the depth chart. The Eagles let Gainwell (Steelers) walk in free agency, and now Shipley will be the primary back who gives Saquon Barkley a breather. In that role, we could see Shipley getting around 100 carries and 15-20 catches on the season. If Barkley were to miss time, Shipley would step into a larger and much more fantasy-relevant role.
Back to Top
|
6. NYJ: Breece Hall unlikely to be dealt
Source: ESPN.com - Rich Cimini
New York Jets RB Breece Hall was reassured earlier this offseason by head coach Aaron Glenn that the team is not looking to trade him, even though he is entering the final season of his rookie contract.
Our view: Hall is a talented runner, and he's set to be the lead back for the Jets this year. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are there to complement him in the backfield, and the Jets will use them behind Hall. In addition to what he can do on the ground, Hall is a good receiving option out of the backfield. His workload and three-down skill set makes him an RB2 with upside.
Back to Top
|
7. DEN: Bo Nix better in second half of 2024
Source: ESPN.com
Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix threw 21 touchdowns during the second half of the 2024 season compared to only eight touchdowns during the first eight games of the season.
Our view: Four games into his rookie season, Nix had four interceptions and one touchdown (which he threw in Week 4). Then, Nix started to take hold of the Sean Payton offense. The two are a great fit for each other, and that's the secret in the NFL. Payton made sure to get more weapons around Nix in year two like TE Evan Engram, RB JK Dobbins, and rookies RB RJ Harvey and WR Pat Bryant. Nix had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history after the slow start, and his future looks even brighter in 2025. He's a low-end QB1 with upside.
Back to Top
|
8. SF: Ricky Pearsall builds chemistry with QB
Source: The Athletic - Matt Barrows
San Francisco 49ers WR Ricky Pearsall worked out with QB Brock Purdy multiple times this offseason, both in their native Arizona and also in Jacksonville, where Purdy works on his throwing fundamentals each year.
Our view: Pearsall missed minicamp due to a hamstring injury, but he's working out with his quarterback. He needs to stay healthy, because his rookie season was held back due to injury problems. He compiled 31 catches, 400 yards, and three touchdowns in 11 games last year. This season, Pearsall looks like a WR5/deep flex option for Fantasy GMs.
Back to Top
|
9. MIA: Jonnu Smith excelled in second half of 2024
Source: ESPN.com
Miami Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith posted 582 yards during the second half of the 2024 NFL season and caught seven of his eight touchdowns during those games.
Our view: Smith's second-half surge helped him snare 88 passes for 884 yards and eight touchdowns (all career highs). The Dolphins plan on getting the ball out quickly again with QB Tua Tagovailoa, and Smith is clearly a favorite target. However, the situation between the Dolphins and Smith remains fluid according to his agent Drew Rosenhaus. Smith missed minicamp as he seeks a long-term extension from the team. Deals get done at deadlines, and the start of training camp seems like a time something could happen (new contract? trade?). Stay tuned.
Back to Top
|
10. WAS: Terry McLaurin still waiting for deal
Source: SI.com - Albert Breer
Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin missed some of the offseason practices because of his contract situation, and the two sides are still believed to have a lot of work to do before they can reach an agreement on an extension, according to SI.com's Albert Breer.
Our view: The two sides can get closer to a deal when training camp begins. Deals get done at deadlines as they say, and McLaurin has made his intentions known by leaving OTAs and missing minicamp. National reporters suggest McLaurin is likely seeking a contract extension averaging at least $30 million per year.
Back to Top
|
11. ARI: Marvin Harrison productive on first down
Source: ESPN.com
Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. caught six of his eight touchdowns on first down plays last season.
Our view: Harrison should be a force on first downs - and every down - once again this year. He's put on muscle this offseason to help at the catch point and with his run-after-the-catch ability. Harrison is getting praise from Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon for his offseason dedication, and that would should pay dividends in 2025.
Back to Top
|
12. TB: Baker Mayfield terrific in fourth quarter
Source: ESPN.com
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw for 1,123 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions during the fourth quarter of games last season.
Our view: Reports earlier this year indicated new Bucs OC Josh Grizzard "won't try to reinvent the wheel." Mayfield was fantastic last year with now Jagaurs HC Liam Coen running the offense. It should be a rinse-and-repeat program this year for Mayfield, and that's got the attention of Fantasy GMs. His 41 touchdowns and 4,500 passing yards helped make him the no.3 fantasy quarterback in 2024 (standard leagues). Mayfield is a low-end QB1 in 2025 with the ability to crack the top-5 again.
Back to Top
|
13. LAR: Matthew Stafford struggled around goal line
Source: RamsWire - Cameron DaSilva
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford completed only 41 percent of his passes inside the 10-yard line during the 2024 season.
Our view: The Rams got Stafford signed to a two-year extension earlier this offseason, and now they need to get the most from the veteran quarterback. He's not the elite-level passer he used to be, but Stafford is perfect for the Sean McVay offense full of Shanahan concepts (play-action, zone-blocking). Projecting him for around 4,000 yards passing with 24 touchdowns (and around 10 interceptions) seems right, and that makes him a QB2 for Fantasy GMs.
Back to Top
|
14. BUF: Keon Coleman not a big factor in second half
Source: ESPN.com
Buffalo Bills WR Keon Coleman caught only eight passes for 160 yards and one touchdown during the second half of the 2024 season.
Our view: Coleman's rookie season was cut short by injury. Reports indicate the big-bodied receiver chipped a bone in his wrist in Week 9, and Coleman missed Week 10-14 because of the injury. He certainly flashed as a rookie early on, but Coleman must stay healthy and continue to develop in year two. We like him as a WR5 with deep flex appeal in 2025.
Back to Top
|
15. NYJ: Allen Lazard mentioned in trade rumors
Source: ESPN.com - Rich Cimini
New York Jets WR Allen Lazard's name has continued to be mentioned in trade rumors but the team is unlikely to deal him before the end of the preseason, as long as they are comfortable with their depth at wide receiver, in the opinion of ESPN.com's Rich Cimini.
Our view: Of course, Lazard's name is in trade rumors because Aaron Rodgers is with the Steelers. Could we see something happen before the start of the regular season? Well, anything is possible and everyone knows if Rodgers can get more of 'his guys' around him - he will. Let's see what the Jets think of their WRs behind Lazard on the depth chart, and that means this might string along through the preseason as evaluations continue.
Back to Top
|
That’s it for today, Friends.
Thanks for making us part of your fantasy football rhythm. Whether you’ve been riding with us since the days of dial-up or just found your way here this season, we’re grateful to be in your corner.
This game’s more fun when you’re all in. And it’s even better when you’re not doing it alone.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
|
|
|
|
Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
Advertise with us and get your brand in front of 700,000+ football fans
You’re subscribed as Reader - Manage Preferences - Unsubscribe here
Copyright @ 2026 Sportsguys, LLC. 118 N Peters Road, Suite 208. Knoxville, TN 37922
|
|
|
|
|