Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SUNDAY 9/23 @ 7:00 AM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | San Francisco | -6.5 | 30.75 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | Detroit | -7 | 30.75 | 54.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Minnesota | Buffalo | -16.5 | 28.75 | 41 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | -2 | 27.75 | 53.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Tampa Bay | -1 | 27.75 | 54.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| LA Rams | LA Chargers | -7 | 27.75 | 48.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh | 1 | 26.75 | 54.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Indianapolis | -7 | 26.5 | 46 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Baltimore | Denver | -5.5 | 26 | 46.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | 2 | 25.75 | 53.5 | + | + | |
| Houston | NY Giants | -6 | 24.75 | 43.5 | + | + | + |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | -9.5 | 24.75 | 40 | + | ++ | +++ |
| San Francisco | Kansas City | 6.5 | 24.25 | 55 | ++ | + | |
| Green Bay | Washington | -2.5 | 23.75 | 45 | |||
| Miami | Oakland | -3 | 23.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Detroit | New England | 7 | 23.75 | 54.5 | |||
| Carolina | Cincinnati | -3 | 23.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Chicago | Arizona | -6 | 22.25 | 38.5 | ++ | ||
| Cleveland | NY Jets | -3 | 22 | 41 | + | ||
| Washington | Green Bay | 2.5 | 21.25 | 45 | |||
| Seattle | Dallas | -1.5 | 21 | 40.5 | + | ||
| Oakland | Miami | 3 | 20.75 | 44.5 | |||
| LA Chargers | LA Rams | 7 | 20.75 | 48.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Carolina | 3 | 20.75 | 44.5 | |||
| Denver | Baltimore | 5.5 | 20.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Philadelphia | 7 | 19.5 | 46 | |||
| Dallas | Seattle | 1.5 | 19.5 | 40.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Cleveland | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
| NY Giants | Houston | 6 | 18.75 | 43.5 | |||
| Arizona | Chicago | 6 | 16.25 | 38.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | 9.5 | 15.25 | 40 | |||
| Buffalo | Minnesota | 16.5 | 12.25 | 41 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II II (Chiefs), Tom Brady (Patriots), Kirk Cousins (Vikings),
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray (Vikings), Corey Clement/Wendell Smallwood (Eagles)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Chris Hogan/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings),
- Defense: Vikings, Jaguars
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Jared Goff (Rams), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buccaneers), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
- Running Back: Tevin Coleman (Falcons), James Conner (Steelers), Todd Gurley (Rams), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Alex Collins (Ravens), Leonard Fournette (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Brandin Cooks/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Chris Godwin/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Nelson Agholor/Kamar Aiken/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead IV (Ravens), Marquise Goodwin/Pierre Garcon/Trent Taylor/George Kittle (49ers)
- Defense: Bears
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), Lamar Miller (Texans), Matt Breida/Alfred Morris (49ers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Ben Watson (Saints), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller V/Ryan Griffin (Texans), Keelan Cole/Donte Moncrief/Dede Westbrook/Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Jaguars)
- Defense: Texans, Browns, Seahawks, Eagles