Tracking ADP Risers and Fallers is one way we can try to stay ahead of the field in Best Ball this offseason as we will have a better handle on ADP and where to find values as the news comes in. I will continue this process throughout the NFL offseason to help us in our Best Ball drafting leading up to the start of the season. In this report we can compare players ADP from May 2nd to May 14th.
The process in coming up with ADP Risers and Fallers is rather simple as in this example below I took ADP numbers from DRAFT on 5/2 and 5/14 and found the difference either +/-. The players who scored a lower ADP on 5/14 would be in the Risers category and the players who scored a higher ADP on 5/14 compared to 5/2 would be in the Fallers category.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. Happy Drafting!
Top 10 ADP Risers
1. Darrell Henderson LA RB38 +37.1 ADP -- In a two week span following the NFL Draft, Henderson's ADP rose up 3+ rounds as he has got the Alvin Kamara comparison from the coaching staff and the Todd Gurley knee issues continue to hit the news cycle. Henderson is now a mid 8th round pick which feels steep with Todd Gurley still going in the late 1st round.
2. Mecole Hardman KC WR45 +33.6 ADP -- Rookie fever is in full affect here with Hardman up nearly 3 rounds in ADP as a suspension to Tyreek Hill is on the horizon. If you want to draft the rookie Hardman you now have to fork out a 9th round pick.
3. Parris Campbell IND WR52 +27.0 ADP -- Campbell is the third straight rookie on the riser list as he continues to gain praise in the fantasy community and having Andrew Luck as his quarterback feels like it is instantly helping to rise his ADP. The cost on Campbell is now an 11th round selection which feels high with Hilton, Funchess, Ebron, and Doyle all likely ahead of him on the pecking order.
4. Peyton Barber TB RB50 +19.8 ADP -- Now that Tampa Bay has made no additions to their running back depth chart Peyton Barber is starting to gain some new found love as he is nearly up 2 rounds in ADP over the past two weeks.
5. N'Keal Harry NE WR36 +19.0 ADP -- The cost is high on Harry right now as he is instantly slotted in to be the second best target behind Edelman in the receiving game. Harry is valued at an 8th round pick right now in the middle of Marvin Jones Jr, Sterling Shepard, Christian Kirk, and Golden Tate.
6. Justice Hill BAL RB58 +18.7 ADP -- The fact that Hill's ADP is rising into the 15th round is surprising as the Ravens have three other backs likely ahead of him in Mark Ingram II, Gus Edwards, and Kenneth Dixon.
7. Robert Foster BUF WR69 +17.7 ADP -- Foster has been on the Fallers list the past couple of months so now seeing a 1.5 round jump in the other direction is interesting. He is now a 15/16 round pick and offers some great upside and value as a WR6/WR7 type on any best ball roster.
8. David Montgomery CHI RB27 +15.4 ADP -- Montgomery is one of seven rookie's out of the top ten risers. With the Bears having a RBBC approach with Cohen, Davis and Montgomery his 5th round price tag shows you the price you have to pay for running backs this season.
9. Devin Singletary BUF RB56 +14.6 ADP -- The Bills have an interesting backfield currently with plenty of LeSean McCoy rumors of being cut out there. If that was to be the case it would be a RBBC with Singletary, Gore, and Yeldon.
10. DaeSean Hamilton DEN WR65 +13.4 ADP -- Hamilton is up a full round in ADP in the 14/15 round range. The negative Sanders injury news has been a bump up for both Hamilton and Sutton in the Broncos passing game.
|RISERS TOP 25||5/2||5/7||5/14||5/2-5/14|
|24||Irv Smith Jr||MIN||TE27||201.0||196.4||194.5||6.5|
Now let's dive into some of the ADP Fallers over the past 2 weeks.
Top 10 ADP FALLERS
1. Doug Baldwin SEA WR78 -57.8 ADP -- This is an obvious one with Baldwin released by the Seahawks and soon after retiring. ADP adjusted fast on this one as he is now in the 17th round and will be completely undrafted in a few days.
2. Mike Davis CHI RB48 -32.5 ADP -- With all the David Montgomery love out there right now, there needed to be someone that took the opposite side of it and that is Mike Davis as he is down nearly 3 rounds. The Bears gave Davis some decent money in the offseason so I don't think we can fade him entirely.
3. Rex Burkhead NE RB59 -25.2 ADP -- Lots of rumors of the Patriots running back depth chart being too crowded and that Burkhead may now be on his way out of town with the Patriots drafting Damien Harris.
4. A.J. Brown TEN WR67 -23.3 ADP -- Everyone was excited about Brown pre-draft as he was a top prospect at the position. Fast forward to after the draft and landing with the Titans his value took a hit with his ADP down a couple of rounds.
5. Tyreek Hill KC WR38 -18.7 ADP -- Hill is on the verge of being suspended and likely out for the 2019 season. He will continue to fall over the upcoming weeks.
6. Isaiah Crowell OAK RB88 -15.8 ADP -- Crowell has been injured and placed on IR and will miss the 2019 season.
7. Hakeem Butler ARI WR74 -14.8 ADP -- Butler fell in the NFL Draft and because of that his ADP has also been dipping.
8. Donte Moncrief PIT WR61 -11.4 ADP -- The Steelers are thin behind Juju Smith-Schuster but now Moncrief is competing with James Washington and newly drafted Dointae Johnson and his ADP is down a round because of it.
9. Albert Wilson MIA WR70 -8.7 ADP -- Albert Wilson is a solid pick in the 15/16 round range and he is falling because of his slow recovery. You maybe able to get a slight discount on him until he reports to Training Camp.
|FALLERS TOP 25||5/2||5/7||5/14||5/2-5/14|
|24||Patrick Mahomes II||KC||QB1||32.1||34.4||36.7||-4.6|