The Best of Footballguys Week 15

Matt Waldman's The Best of Footballguys Week 15 Matt Waldman Published 12/13/2019

You guys have a ton of articles.

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.

1. Ryan Hester's trendspotting

In the Now #Trending section of Ryan's popular feature, he compares "how teams have performed on a raw 'fantasy points against' basis over the past five weeks vs. how they performed prior to that [five-week period].

Ryan does this for each position looking ahead to Week 15's contest. I share my thoughts about his analysis at the end of this section.

Now #Trending

In this section, we're comparing how teams have performed on a 'raw fantasy points against' basis over the past five weeks vs. how they performed prior to that.

vs. Quarterbacks
Team Last 5 Prior Delta Opponent
San Francisco 49ers 31 2 -29 Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos 28 3 -25 Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys 27 5 -22 Los Angeles Rams
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 15 -15 Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis Colts 23 10 -13 New Orleans Saints 
"Last 5" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position in the last 5 weeks
"Prior" = Fantasy Points per Game ranking to the position prior to that
"Delta" = Prior-Last 5 (negative numbers imply a defense getting worse; positive imply a defense improving)

Commentary and Action Items

Don't be scared of Patrick Mahomes II just because of the Denver matchup. The Broncos have yielded 265 or more passing yards in four of their last five games after doing so zero times prior. And Denver has allowed 39.0 rushing yards per game to the last four mobile quarterbacks they have faced (not counting games against Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins).

vs. Running Backs
Team Last 5 Prior Delta Opponent
New Orleans Saints 25 4 -21 Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars 32 16 -16 Oakland Raiders
Houston Texans 31 15 -16 Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings 20 5 -15 Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks 21 12 -9 Carolina Panthers

Commentary and Action Items

If the Oakland running back situation provides clarity prior to Sunday, either Josh Jacobs or DeAndre Washington are solid plays. If Jacobs starts or if Washington starts with Jacobs inactive, either would be an RB2 play in season-long leagues. Washington would garner cash game consideration in DFS if Jacobs sits.

Houston's recent troubles align with Derrick Henry's surge.

Henry is on fire and can't be ignored as the main touchdown scorer in what has been an elite offense over the past seven weeks. Henry is a no-doubt RB1 in season-long leagues but more of a GPP play in DFS due to his big-ticket price and some similarly-projected players (such as Carson, for example) at lower prices.

Both Chargers' backs are in play vs. Minnesota. The Vikings slide includes last week's game against a lowly Detroit team, meaning their "Last 5" number could be worse had they played an average opponent last week.

vs. Wide Receivers
Team Last 5 Prior Delta Opponent
Denver Broncos 23 3 -20 Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts 30 10 -20 New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys 19 2 -17 Los Angeles Rams
Chicago Bears 20 6 -14 Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins 27 15 -12 New York Giants

Commentary and Action Items

Davante Adams could be an intriguing play this week. He's coming off a stinker where he was "cash game safe," and he's facing a Chicago team that appears difficult but is trending down lately.

The Rams receivers look attractive against Dallas. Note that Cooper Kupp only played 20 snaps (29%) last week, while Woods played 69 of 70.

The Giants have a promising matchup as they host Miami this week. The return of Sterling Shepard was supposed to relegate Darius Slayton to afterthought status, but the Giants have been employing many three-receiver sets in the past three weeks.

In addition to the solid usage shown below, Slayton has outproduced his veteran teammates. Here are the trio's stats in the last three games, shown on a per-game basis to account for Tate's missed Week 13.

  • Shepard - 4.0 receptions, 27.7 yards, 0.3 touchdowns
  • Tate - 2.0 receptions, 22.0 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
  • Slayton - 5.0 receptions, 83.3 yards, 0.7 touchdowns
Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Total
Player Snap % Tgt % AirYd% Snap % Tgt % AirYd% Snap % Tgt % AirYd% Snap % Tgt % Yds %
Sterling Shepard 95.0% 26.5% 22.2% 85.1% 18.9% 23.8% 92.3% 24.1% 21.2% 90.5% 23.0% 22.4%
Golden Tate 83.3% 20.6% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.5% 17.2% 30.3% 53.6% 12.0% 19.9%
Darius Slayton 85.0% 20.6% 23.0% 94.0% 24.3% 28.2% 80.8% 27.6% 48.1% 87.2% 24.0% 33.5% 
"Snap %" = percentage of team snaps played
"Tgt %" = percentage of team targets thrown to that player
"AirYd%" = percentage of team air yards thrown to that player
vs. Tight Ends
Team Last 5 Prior Delta Opponent
New England Patriots 28 2 -26 Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans 31 9 Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
strategy Davante Adams Keenan Allen Kyle Allen Tavon Austin Christian Blake Tyler Boyd Matt Breida A.J. Brown Keelan Cole Sr. Brandin Cooks Pharoh Cooper Kirk Cousins Quandre Diggs Austin Ekeler Isaiah Ford Russell Gage Mike Gesicki Chris Godwin Josh Gordon Melvin Gordon III Chris Harris Jr Derrick Henry Austin Hooper Jordan Howard Adam Humphries Andy Isabella Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Diontae Johnson KeeSean Johnson Chris Jones Cooper Kupp Jarvis Landry Allen Lazard Drew Lock Marlon Mack Patrick Mahomes II Christian McCaffrey Von Miller DJ Moore Raheem Mostert Kyler Murray Rashaad Penny Byron Pringle Josh Reynolds Calvin Ridley John Ross Emmanuel Sanders Boston Scott Sterling Shepard Darius Slayton JuJu Smith-Schuster Kenny Stills Courtland Sutton Darwin Thompson Mitch Trubisky Sammy Watkins Mike Williams Juwann Winfree Deon Yelder Olamide Zaccheaus
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