If you were paying attention to the right details last season, you waited to draft a tight end and reached into the late-single-digit rounds to scoop George Kittle. The results couldn’t have been more perfect. Kittle broke the NFL record for tight end receiving yards in a season, on his way to a top-3 finish, despite an affordable 12th-round ADP. The term “league-winner” gets thrown around a lot in fantasy football these days, but Kittle was the true definition.
Unfortunately, Kittle now carries a third-round price tag, which is reasonable but high enough to price him out of consideration for tight end value-seekers. Instead of paying top-dollar for actual-Kittle in 2019, our focus should shift to identifying the next Kittle -- a player who can realistically provide top-5 tight end production from the double-digit rounds.
Striking gold on a late-round tight end enables you to invest more of your premium picks at running back and wide receiver (fantasy football's most important positions), which builds roster depth needed to withstand injuries and allows for the inevitability one (or more) of your early-round picks will bust.
It’s unlikely another tight end will emerge from the late rounds to rewrite the record books this season. But it’s worth looking back on the thought process that led us to Kittle in 2018 to see if there are tight ends in this year’s player pool who check the same boxes:
- Bargain ADP
- Young and athletic
- Quietly impressive rookie-year production
- A quarterback capable of elevating his pass-catchers (Kittle managed to succeed in spite of this one after Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL)
- Guaranteed snaps and targets
- A tight end-friendly scheme
- Red-zone potential
Dallas Goedert - 6/7 Boxes
Bargain ADP: Check
Goedert is currently the TE17 on DRAFT, usually making him available in Round 12 (we’ll use Best Ball ADP for this exercise since those are currently the only redraft leagues where entrants have some skin in the game).
Young and athletic: Check
We don’t have a 40-time on Goedert because he tore his hamstring right before the 2018 Senior Bowl and didn’t work out at the scouting combine. At his pro day, Goedert elected not to run the 40 but finished close enough to Kittle in the explosion and agility drills. Goedert isn’t nearly as fast as Kittle on tape, but his game isn’t built on speed and separation. He’s using his massive 6’5’’, 265 lbs. frame and high-point ability to win balls in the air.
Quietly impressive rookie-year production: Check
Goedert’s 33-334-4 receiving line didn’t set the world on fire last year, but it was impressive for a rookie stuck behind an elite tight end of the depth chart. He played on at least 55% of Philadelphia’s snaps in just eight games last season. But if we extrapolate his numbers in those games over a full season, he would have finished as the TE8 last year.
A quarterback capable of elevating his pass-catchers: Check
Carson Wentz has supported consecutive top-three finishes at tight end from Zach Ertz while also keeping Alshon Jeffery (and Nelson Agholor at times) in the weekly WR2 discussion. Wentz’s willingness to throw the ball up for grabs dovetails nicely with Goedert’s ability to pluck jump balls out of the air.
Guaranteed snaps and targets: Nope
The problem with Goedert emerging as a top-five tight end is Ertz -- the player with more receptions than anyone at the position over the last two seasons. While snaps and targets are a concern for Goedert, it’s worth noting five of the aforementioned eight games in which he recorded a minimum 55% snap-share came in the last six games of the season.
As things started to click for Goedert as a rookie, the Eagles were more inclined to run 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) to keep defenses guessing whether a pass or run was coming when both Ertz and Goedert were on the field together. With early buzz Goedert’s off-season development has been phenomenal, we have every reason to believe the late-season trend will continue.
A tight end-friendly scheme: Check
Either Ertz or Travis Kelce have been at Doug Pederson’s disposal in five out of his six seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach. It’s therefore unfair to say the Eagles have a tight end-friendly scheme, but we can check this box on the assumption Pederson knows how to leverage tight end talent when he has it on his roster.
Red-zone potential: Check
Not surprisingly for a player with his size and skill-set, Goedert was quick to make a red zone impact as a rookie. Three out of his four touchdowns came from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in 2018. If we assume Goedert’s playing time will pick up where it left off last season, he’s going to eat into Ertz’s red zone looks and is a darkhorse candidate for double-digit touchdowns, even in a timeshare.
Ian Thomas - 6/7 Boxes
Bargain ADP: Check
Thomas is currently a fringe top-200 player who frequently makes it to the last round of early Best Ball drafts.
Athletic talent: Check
Thomas is the slowest option on this list, checking in with a 4.74 40-yard dash, but like Goedert, he excelled in the explosion and agility drills with high marks in the vertical jump (36"), broad jump (10'3") and 20-yard shuttle (4.2 seconds).
Quietly impressive rookie-year production: Check
Thomas became Carolina’s starter last year after Greg Olsen was lost for the season in Week 13. He finished as the TE6 over the final five weeks despite playing with non-NFL caliber quarterbacks while Cam Newton sat out the Panthers final two games.
A quarterback capable of elevating his pass-catchers: Check
Newton is not exactly a prolific passer but he has consistently supported Olsen as a weekly top-five tight end option while leaving enough meat on the bone for receivers like Steve Smith (early in Newton’s career) and Kelvin Benjamin (more recently) to post WR1/2 numbers in the same games.
Guaranteed snaps and targets: Nope
From 2014-16, Olsen made the Pro Bowl every year and became the first tight end in NFL history to record three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He’s been a participant at OTAs and claims to be healthy after the same foot injury caused him to miss 16 of the last 32 games. If Olsen is 100%, he will be Carolina’s starter heading into the season. But at 34 years old and with a seemingly chronic foot issue, Olsen’s backup has a better chance than most of seeing significant playing time.
A tight end-friendly scheme: Check
Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a well-documented history of emphasizing tight ends in his offenses. Coaching Antonio Gates for six seasons in San Diego certainly helped, but we’re only a few years removed from Kyle Rudolph leading Turner’s 2016 Vikings offense in targets ahead of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
Red-zone potential: Check
Thomas has the size and hands to make contested catches in traffic look easy. Both of his touchdowns last season came from inside the opponent’s red zone.
Mark Andrews - 5/7 Boxes
Bargain ADP: Check
Andrews’ ADP has risen a bit in recent weeks but he can still usually be picked outside the top-20 tight ends.
Young and athletic: Check
At 6’5’’, 256 lbs., Andrews’ 4.67 40-yard dash time -- while not as fast as Kittle’s 4.52 -- qualifies him as a size/speed mismatch.
Quietly impressive rookie-year production: Check
This is where Andrews jumps off the page as a second-year breakout candidate. In 2017, Kittle became one of 10 tight ends to exceed 500 receiving yards as a rookie since 2000. Andrews’ 552 receiving yards last season placed him on the same list, which also includes former and present fantasy studs Jeremy Shockey, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and Evan Engram.
A quarterback capable of elevating his pass-catchers: Nope
Lamar Jackson completed 58% of his passes as a rookie and averaged 159.1 passing yards per game over seven starts. We have a long way to go before checking this box, but it’s unfair to say Jackson is a hindrance to Andrews’ production. Andrews accounted for a team-leading 26% of Baltimore’s receiving yards under Jackson. More impressively, his yards per target increased from 8.4 with Joe Flacco at quarterback to 12.1 under Jackson. For context, Rob Gronkowski averaged 9.3 yards per target as a rookie and Travis Kelce averaged 10.4 in his first season.
Guaranteed snaps and targets: Nope
Just like Goedert and Thomas, this is where suggesting Andrews is the best candidate to be this year’s Kittle starts to come apart. Andrews never exceeded 44% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps in a game last year, and that was with the team’s first-round pick, Hayden Hurst, missing the first four weeks. Hurst will presumably start this season healthy and the team also re-signed Nick Boyle, an excellent run-blocker, to a surprisingly rich free-agent contract. Without an injury to Hurst or Boyle, Andrews will probably find himself in an opportunity squeeze.
A tight end-friendly scheme: Check
No worries here. Since Jon Harbaugh took over as Baltimore head coach in 2008, the Ravens have consistently made tight end a priority in their offense. Todd Heap, Ed Dickson, Owen Daniels, Dennis Pitta, and Ben Watson have ranged from priority streamers to every-week fantasy starters on Harbaugh’s watch.
Red-zone potential: Check
Two of Andrews’ three touchdowns came within the 10-yard line last season and he was a red-zone beast at Oklahoma, coming down with at least seven scores in each of his three collegiate seasons.
Mike Gesicki - 5/7 Boxes
Bargain ADP: Check
Gesicki is typically going in the 16th round of drafts. You can currently snag him with one of your last picks.
Young and athletic: Check
All of the tight ends on this list are tremendous athletes, but Gesicki has them all beat. He laid waste to the competition at last year’s combine, measuring in the 95th percentile or above in every drill. Although a bit lankier than Kittle, Gesicki’s size (6’6’’, 247 lbs.) and speed (4.54 40-yard dash) place him in the same athletic category.
Quietly impressive rookie-year production: Nope
Gesicki is the only next-Kittle candidate who doesn’t check this box. His 32-22-202-0 receiving line as a rookie wasn’t all his fault given the context of Miami’s offense, but there is no doubt Gesicki struggled to adjust to the pro game. In addition to predictable growing pains as a run-blocker, he failed to answer questions about his ability to shake physical coverage from NFL defenders.
A quarterback capable of elevating his pass-catchers: Nope
Ryan Fitzpatrick is reportedly out to an early lead in his camp battle with Josh Rosen, but the Dolphins have practically announced they’re tanking and have to see what they’ve got in Rosen at some point this season. Last year, Rosen targeted Ricky Seals-Jones on 15% of his snaps, which was a top-five rate for a tight end. Despite being heavily involved when he was on the field, Seals-Jones finished as the TE27.
Guaranteed snaps and targets: Check
Dwayne Allen was signed to handle run-blocking duties, which should free up Gesicki to do what he does best -- get downfield quickly and jump over safeties to make catches. The Dolphins have talent at wide receiver, but no one who profiles as a target-hog.
A tight end-friendly scheme: Check
New Miami offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea is a first-time player-caller who spent nearly half his coaching career in New England. It would, therefore, be fair to expect plenty of matchup-based, week-to-week schemes. But with Allen, a true Y tight end, to fight in the trenches, Gesicki figures to play the Rob Gronkowski role for the Dolphins (in theory anyway).
Red-zone potential: Check
Gesicki has the height, jumping ability, and catch radius to be a weapon in the red zone but it’s disappointing he wasn’t able to do more there as a rookie. He commanded six targets from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line last season, which trailed only Kenyan Drake for the team lead, yet didn’t come down with a single score. Improvement can hardly be taken for granted considering Fitzpatrick/Rosen isn’t much of an upgrade from Tannehill/Osweiler, but with a reported 13 pounds of muscle added to his frame from last year, the raw materials are there for Gesicki to become a touchdown-maker, insofar as Miami’s offense can produce one.
Closing Thoughts
The odds of no tight end currently being drafted in the double-digit rounds approximating what Kittle did last year are greater than the likelihood Goedert, Thomas, Andrews, or Gesicki finish inside the position's Top 5. But it won't be due to a lack of viable candidates. Opportunity wins the day in fantasy football, and while right now it's difficult to project Goedert, Thomas, or Andrews as focal points of their respective offenses, each of these guys would be every-week TE1s if they were to capture a starting role at any point during the season. And Gesicki, despite questions about his offense and readiness, appears to already have a starting job locked down. Carrying two tight ends in a typical redraft league is usually unnecessary, but these next-Kittle candidates make it a strategy to employ when you wait until the mid-to-late rounds to draft a tight end.
