For contending dynasty teams, it is time to start looking at playoff matchups. While Week 16 is the title week for fantasy football, I like to look at Week 15 more as a high-level team. Most prize structures are built where even getting to the championship game is worth 2-3x the entry fee, where teams losing in Week 15 are relegated to playing for third place where many get their entry fee back and maybe a little more. The loser of the third-place game may get nothing at all. In short, Week 15 is the high-leverage week of the season. Also, strong teams are angling for the bye week, which excludes Week 14 from their slate of matchups. For other playoff teams, Week 14 is the most important week and a central point of analysis.
QUARTERBACKS
The Footballguys Adjusted Strength of Schedule tool (SOS) is a must-use feature on the site. I deplore raw SOS tools merely stating the points allowed by defenses to each position. More context is needed, and Footballguys looks at the adjusted points allowed based on how the positions scored in other games compared to the defense in question. For quarterbacks, here are the matchups and players to note for the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16):
- Jets
- Chargers
- Ravens
- Buccanneers
- Bears
RUNNING BACKS
- Titans
- Packers
- Bears
WIDE RECEIVERS
First off, Seattle is the best aSOS matchup differentiator of all the skill positions this season. They are an otherworldly +22.4 PPR points above their oppositions average in other games. Essentially adding an elite WR1 performance in total to the opposing wide receiver corps' result that week. The three teams to benefit from a Seattle matchup in the playoffs are:
- Jets (Week 14): Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims
- Washington (Week 15): Terry McLaurin
- Rams (Week 16): Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
- Jets
- Rams
- Bears
- Washington
- Colts
- Ravens
- Bengals
TIGHT ENDS
The Falcons through nine weeks are the best matchup for opposing tight ends, a robust +5.8 PPR points above opponent's averages. Here are the Atlanta matchups in the playoffs:
- Chargers (Week 14)
- Buccaneers (Week 15)
- Chiefs (Week 16)
All three are consistently started tight ends (Hunter Henry, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce) and their teams have average-ish aSOS playoff slates otherwise.
No tight end has a consistently strong playoff stretch throughout the three-week gauntlet but Eric Ebron and the Steelers have two strong matchups in Weeks 14-15 (BUF, CIN) and the Broncos (BUF, LAC) are similar in Weeks 15-16.
Streaming, or typically spot starters, who have quality matchups mixed into the playoffs include:
- Dalton Schultz with strong matchups in Week 14, 16
- Ross Dwelley, Week 14
- Jacob Hollister (or applicable Seattle option), Week 15
- Jordan Akins (or applicable Houston option), Week 16
- Robert Tonyan Jr, Week 16
Dynasty Moves of the Week
Mike Davis is getting another spot start this week with Christian McCaffrey on the mend. Davis could even be the starter in Week 11 depending on McCaffrey's recovery. Plus, Davis the primary backup for the rest of the season even when McCaffrey returns. Davis' market return is likely a 2nd plus potentially a player. If you have Davis as a non-contender, you have another exit window for a quality return with McCaffrey out this week. Davis is a free agent in the offseason and there is no guaranteed Davis returns to Carolina or is a stable injury-away option in 2021. Getting a 2nd (and possibly a little more) is a good insulation exit after exhausting a handful of quality spot starts this season. If a contender, starting Davis this week - and possibly more - could be preferred to selling for a 2nd to a contending peer. Historically, gaining the 2nd is a quality move here but would take a strong running back depth chart to lose the aWORP upside.
Also for contenders, I would mention scrubbing all the non-contender rosters in your league for contending type pieces. Stereotypically this is older producers in general to find matching and easier trade negotiations to fit team directions, but sneaky ones are the higher-level injury-away running backs. I was able to get Latavius Murray, who was the No.1 running back over a two-week stretch in 2019 filling in for an injury Alvin Kamara, from a non-contender for a 4th round pick. Murray is under contract for 2021 as well with the Saints, so this could be a 2020, but also 2021 high-level injury-away addition. Be open to selling your Round 3-4-5 picks especially for these types of bets on quality players who are an injury away as they could emerge as auto-starts down the stretch with one thing (an injury) occurring on their depth chart.
