Photo: Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

In the midst of writing this week's edition of Tips and Picks, we learned that Cam Newton will miss Sunday's game against the Chiefs due to a positive COVID test. Because this article requires a full day to compile/write, there are sections written before and after Saturday morning's announcement. As such, you will note some recommendations, including Cam himself, that are in strikethrough font while others are in the typical black font because that section was written after the announcement. I will do my best to update the article (with an indication of *when* the article was last updated) as we learn more. There is a strong chance, however, that this game is postponed, which would mean that anything written hereafter becomes irrelevant for tomorrow's DFS slate.

Update #1 (Saturday, 1 PM EST): The NE-KC game has officially been postponed and should not be considered for DFS purposes. Given the fantasy relevance of this game, there will be trickle-down effects across other players and player popularity in tournaments. Please check back this evening and tomorrow morning for my evolving thoughts on potential shifts in strategy, potential fades/sleepers, etc. Everything that is added will appear in this same red font and timestamped.

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks: Last Sunday, Cam Newton disappointed with a ~ 12-point performance against the Raiders when the Pats' ground game was the focus of the offense during a blowout win. It's probably safe to assume that the Patriots will be able to take their foot off the figurative gas pedal on Sunday against the league's most dynamic offense, the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for Newton to bounce back against the Chiefs, whose defense trails only San Francisco in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks (42.7 yards per game). Given the plus implied gamescript, a hefty Vegas game total of 53, and Newton's lowest price since opening weekend, he is a shoo-in for cash and tournament consideration. To save some salary on a week where value is not readily available, Ryan Fitzpatrick is an acceptable alternative for cash game. "Fitzmagic" has a plush matchup against the Seahawks, the league's second-friendliest defense to opposing quarterbacks. With All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams (groin) on the shelf and Russell Wilson still "cooking" the Seahawks offense, look for Fitzpatrick to deliver value in all DFS formats.

Running Backs: This week's TnP coverboy, Alvin Kamara is an excellent option for cash and GPP contests against a Lions defense that allowed Aaron Jones to score nearly 50 DK points in Week #2. Now that Michael Thomas (ankle) is confirmed 'out,' look for Kamara to again be heavily involved in all facets of the Saints offense; averaging nearly 5x his salary, Kamara is simply priced too low for his implied usage. In Kansas City, Clyde Edwards-Helaire gets the nod for both cash and tournament contests as a sizeable home-favorite with a commanding share of the backfield duties on a Patrick Mahomes II-led offense. Elsewhere, the Panthers are doing their best to impose the Christian McCaffrey role to Mike Davis, who has collected 16 targets in 5 quarters since CMC's late-game injury in Week #2. Davis is modestly priced ($5.7K) against the Cardinals and should see plenty of looks given Arizona's fast-paced spread attack and how it results in extra plays for opposing offenses. Lastly, do not sleep on Ronald Jones II taking on the Chargers. "RoJo" should have the Bucs backfield to himself with Leonard Fournette (ankle) sidelined; Jones will be spelled by LeSean McCoy on passing downs, but should accrue ~ 20 touches at $4.7K against a Chargers' front seven missing several key run-stoppers, including Melvin Ingram III (knee).

Wide Receivers: Featured in this same spot last week, Tyler Lockett likely led you to cash game wins if you slotted him into your lineups; Lockett trampled the Cowboys out of the slot, scoring thrice and collecting 40 DK points in the process. Lockett's salary jumped $600 this week, but he's still firmly in play in all formats due to his usage and personnel matchup where he will line up across from Jamal Perry, who has allowed 100% of passes thrown into his coverage to be caught this season. Playing similar target-heavy roles from the slot, Keenan Allen and Julian Edelman are worthy of cash game consideration on teams likely to be trailing. Allen is coming off a 19-target game from Justin Herbert and gets a pass-funnel Bucs defense while Edelman should bounce back against the Chiefs after a disappointing performance against the Raiders last week when passing was unnecessary in the second half. Elsewhere, D.J. Moore could go off as the most popular wide receiver on the board in Week #4 against the Cardinals due to a combination of price, hype, usage, and matchup; he is an excellent cash game option, but limit your GPP exposure to less than 20% of your overall portfolio. Lastly, as a cheap salary-saver, NKeal Harry is a reasonable selection against the Chiefs given the expected need to pass throughout this matchup (and, yes, you can have both recommended Patriots receivers in your cash game lineups, if your builds necessitate such a decision).

Tight Ends: For the second consecutive week, you are advised to spend up at the tight end position for cash games. Darren Waller is the glaringly obvious option in Las Vegas with Henry Ruggs (hamstring) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) both missing due to injuries. What remains are names like Hunter Renfrow and Nelson Agholor, both of whom are comparably priced, but not nearly as talented as Waller. Look for Waller to get peppered with targets across the middle while Buffalo's excellent perimeter cornerbacks lock down everything else in the passing game. In Tampa Bay, Hunter Henry should be the number-two receiver for Justin Herbert against a defense that funnels action to the pass due to their impenetrable defensive front. Henry has 10 or more DK points in every game this year and is destined for positive touchdown regression after averaging a score every 11 receptions through his first three years in the league while still scoreless after 23 catches this season.

Team Defenses: Posting double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, the Tampa Bay Bucs are this week's safest option for cash games and they come at a $300 discount from last Sunday. The Bucs are averaging four sacks per game and face a rookie quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has thrown a pick in each of his first two NFL starts. Alternatively, you can save some salary by rolling with the home team in Houston against the Vikings. The Texans defense has not bolstered confidence in fantasy production to date, but they have faced three of the league's best teams in the form of the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers; look for them to enjoy the reprieve at home against a much lesser Vikings offense this weekend.

TOURNAMENTS

Quarterbacks: While this author is not ready to proclaim Josh Allen as an elite NFL quarterback just yet, the Bills have done a fantastic job building around his skillset and minimizing his deficiencies. Allen trails only Russell Wilson in fantasy points per game this season and his stats since this time last year are downright ridiculous. Look for Allen's price point to scare DFS players away, particularly when they can have the name-brand Patrick Mahomes II for $100 more, but Allen is equipped with weaponry and an offensive scheme that make him a weekly consideration for tournaments. With their best two defensive backs, Janoris Jenkins (shoulder) and Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), slated to be watching from the sidelines, the Saints could have their hands full with Matthew Stafford and company in Detroit. Stafford should be able to slice through the Saints' tertiary defensive backs and post sizeable numbers, particularly if Drew Brees can get his offense going, which Vegas expects to happen. Stafford will be an excellent contrarian option on less than 5% of rosters and Brees at only a tick above that threshold. In Cincinnati, Joe Burrow should be in serious consideration for tournaments after watching the Jags get throttled by the likes of Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick through their first three games. Jacksonville is allowing an embarrassing 80% conversion rate and they have yet to face an elite NFL quarterback; while Burrow may not yet fit into that category himself, he certainly has demonstrated an ability to post GPP-like numbers (300+ yards in his first 2 NFL games) while benefitting from the ineptitude of his own defense that has allowed opposing offenses to keep him active for 60 full minutes.

• Sleeper: We know that the Vikings are a run-first offense with Dalvin Cook, but this recommendation is based on the possibility that the Texans jump to an early lead and force Mike Zimmer's hand to throw the ball in a game that Vegas projects as high-scoring (54 point total). At present, Kirk Cousins is likely to be found on a fraction of tournament lineups despite hitting 4x value on this week's salary in two of his first three games. Stacking Cousins with either Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson, fresh off a 175-yard breakout performance, is attractive because they represent nearly 80% of the marketshare of targets amongst Vikings receivers. Lastly, if Dalvin Cook exposures trend upwards through Sunday morning (a real possibility), Cousins represents an excellent leverage play against the ~ 15-20% of rosters that will contain Cook's name.
• Fade: It's always tough to recommend fading a player who is the best at his position, but that is where we are landing this week with Patrick Mahomes II. The Pats' best chance of winning this game is to keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possible--look for a heavy dose of stick-moving possession plays from Cam Newton and company, which should slow the pace of the game and lower the ceiling for Mahomes. Bill Belichick has always done a great job scheming to thwart Travis Kelce (see writeup below), which leaves Tyreek Hill as Mahomes' best play-maker. This is not to say Mahomes has no ability to look elsewhere, but the lean here is more towards Clyde Edwards-Helaire trending towards some positive touchdown regression that comes at the expense of Mahomes in a game where Belichick, the master strategist, will do his best to scheme against the Chiefs from creating a shootout where the Pats cannot keep pace.

Running Backs: The strength of Tampa Bay's defense is defending the run, which will drive down the relative popularity of Austin Ekeler this Sunday, but we would be remiss to discount the fact that Ekeler is coming off a game that saw him collect 11 targets from Justin Herbert. The implied gamescript favors similar usage for Ekeler and DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format keeps him squarely in consideration, particularly when he is projected to appear on less than 5% of tournament lineups. In Las Vegas, look for Jon Gruden to pound the ball with Josh Jacobs for as long as a potential win is in sight. The Raiders are short underdogs (+3.5 points) in a projected high-scoring affair (52.5 Vegas total) and Jacobs will be the absolute focal point of this offense; it is tough to understand why he is projected to be on so few tournament lineups, but take advantage. Another potential spot to take advantage is in Los Angeles, where the Rams will host the New York Giants as huge 13-point favorites. The Giants have been horrid defending the run, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs on teams (Steelers, Bears, 49ers) with rushing attacks less impressive than the Rams. Coming off an impressive 20/114/1 performance last week, Darrell Henderson ($5.8K) has to be in consideration for tournaments against the Giants' porous front seven. Rounding things out, David Johnson is a borderline cash-game play based on projections alone, but appears here because of the impending return of Duke Johnson Jr, who might soak up some of the action "David" has been enjoying in Duke's absence for the past two weeks. David still carries multi-touchdown upside against the Vikings, who have allowed 100+ yard games to running backs in back-to-back weeks leading up to this contest.

• Sleeper: Quietly fielding the league's 29th-ranked DVOA defense, the Saints could have their hands full with the ageless Adrian Peterson on Sunday. Peterson looks much the best in the Lions backfield and Matt Patricia is showing confidence in feeding him when the game is close, as evidenced by Peterson's 23 touches in last week's win against the Cardinals. While the masses will be on Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson (both currently on ~ 10+% of GPP rosters), the leverage move is to take the discount with Peterson and count on him experiencing some positive scoring regression after three consecutive scoreless games with ample opportunity.
• Fade: Last week, Devin Singletary collected 17 touches with stablemate, Zack Moss, missing the game due to a toe injury. Moss is listed as questionable on this week's injury report, but it is likely that he suits up on Sunday steals opportunities out of the Buffalo backfield against the Raiders. The matchup appears to be excellent, as Las Vegas is dead-last in points allowed to opposing running backs, but closer inspection of that metric shows that the Raiders have faced both Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey to this point in the season; it might be reasonable to expect that Las Vegas performs better against non-elite running backs. We currently project Singletary to land on ~ 6% of tournament lineups, but that number could approach double-digits by Sunday morning, which would be too high given Singletary's diminished role against a better-than-advertised rush defense.

Wide Receivers: In the mid-$6K range, a series of WR1 options are attractive for tournament purposes at reasonable percent-rostered numbers this week. Both Amari Cooper and Mike Evans will garner decent cornerback coverage in the form of Denzel Ward and Casey Hayward, respectively. However, Cooper's price point is extremely fair for a player who is averaging double-digit targets on a team with an implied Vegas total surpassing 30 points; Ward is a solid defensive back, but he has allowed a pair of touchdowns in coverage through only three games. Likewise, Evans benefits from Chris Godwin's absence (hamstring), which should result in all the action he can handle. In the past, Evans has sometimes struggled against superior protection (i.e., Marshon Lattimore), but we should expect an upgrade in the caliber of quarterback this season to help mitigate some of that concern. The likelihood that he exceeds 4x value on his $6.4K salary is greater than the percentage of rosters he is expected to appear in, which is all the reason we need to roster him for tournaments. Elsewhere, Odell Beckham presents matchup problems for the Cowboys' battered defense that cannot be addressed by their backups; this is a potential breakout spot for Beckham, if Mayfield has the moxie to actively seek him out for four quarters. One additional option is rolling with Golden Tate against the Rams. Tate got his first full bevy of snaps last week and compiled seven targets from Daniel Jones; look for him to get double-digit targets this weekend due to Jalen Ramsey locking down Darius Slayton on the perimeter and a gamescript that necessitates passing by the Giants.

• Sleeper: The Jaguars are projected to score 23 points this weekend, a number that would have just missed the cutoff for a starred rating on the Vegas Value Chart for the past several years. As you think about who is going to score those 23 points, James Robinson jumps to mind first, followed immediately thereafter by D.J. Chark. After Robinson and Chark, the Jags' offensive players are a hodge-podge of mediocrity and role players, none of whom merit consideration for DFS purposes with Chark returning to play after missing last week with a chest injury. Last season, Chark delivered multi-score games on two different occasions and was the clear-cut WR1 on this offense. Look for him to recapture command of this receiving corps moving forward and take advantage of his current salary and percent-rostered numbers before they trend upward in the pending weeks.
• Fade: Nick Foles caught lightning in a bottle last Sunday, as he has shown an ability to do, and earned the starting quarterback role for the Bears. Lest we forget that Foles put up those numbers against the league's 28th-ranked DVOA defense that has allowed 300-yards passing in every game this season. Suffice it to say that we should not expect the Bears to turn into the Chiefs now that Nick Foles in under center. This week's matchup against the Colts' 6th-ranked DVOA defense is much more daunting and merits fading the entire Bears offense, including Allen Robinson. Robinson is coming off a darling 10/123/1 performance against the Falcons, but he will have an uphill struggle to repeat versus a Colt secondary that has contained every opposing wide receiver they have faced this season. At his price point and likely field exposure, this is an opportunity to go underweight on Robinson in a run-heavy, tough matchup.

Tight Ends: With the announcement that the NE-KC will be postponed, there will be a redistribution of 'percent-rostered' from Travis Kelce to other players, which could affect how much exposure we subject ourselves to, say, T.J. Hockenson, who is already projected to be a crowd favorite. Check our DFS percent-rostered projections for updates, but limit yourself to no more than 15-18% exposure to Hockenson despite the plus matchup against the Saints' worst-ranked defense against tight ends. And in line with what I discussed on Thursday night's edition of the PowerGrid, Hockenson becomes a fade candidate if his percent-rostered numbers approach 20%. Elsewhere, Mike Gesicki is intriguing as Ryan Fitzpatrick's favorite target (team-high 19 targets) in a game where Fitzpatrick might need to throw the ball 40+ times to keep pace with the Seahawks. At the level end of the price spectrum, we saw Rob Gronkowski get some additional looks from Tom Brady last week, which might indicate that Gronk is getting back to game speed after missing all of 2019. With excellent perimeter coverage, the Chargers tend to force passes underneath, which plays to Gronk's advantage. Lastly, Logan Thomas is in play for tournaments against the Ravens who have allowed 50+ receiving yards and/or a score to every tight end they have faced this season; as heavy underdogs with few receiving options, "LT3" could see significant action at a reasonable price.

• Sleeper: The Saints are taking a cautious approach with Michael Thomas (ankle), who will miss yet another week. Meanwhile, Jared Cook (ankle) has already been announced as 'out,' which leaves room for third-round pick, Adam Trautman, to jump in as the starting tight end for New Orleans. Trautman has demonstrated an early rapport with Brees in limited snaps, which confers reason to be optimistic about his relative return-on-investment on a paltry $2.5K salary this Sunday. Through their first three games, the Lions have allowed a tight end to reach paydirt in two of them, which also bodes well for Trautman's fantasy prospects.
• Fade: Last week in this very same spot, you were advised to fade Darren Waller in what-looked-like a smash spot against the Patriots. Waller had virtually no competition for targets and a plus implied gamescript, yet we knew that Bill Belichick would build a defensive scheme around him--Waller finished with a 2/9/0 stat line on 4 targets. With history as our guide, we might expect a similar approach from Belichick this week with Travis Kelce, who has struggled to deliver against the Patriots in recent years. Since his rookie year when he finished with an 8/93/1 stat line, Kelce has not surpassed 13.6 DK points against the Patriots on 5 different opportunities. At a highly volatile position, it's easy to back away from Kelce's popularity and hefty salary to spend elsewhere.

Team Defenses: One of the few times where you will see a recommendation to play a team defense with double-digit crowd exposure, but Dwayne Haskins offers too much upside to opposing defenses, particularly those with strong secondaries. Baltimore certainly fits the bill, boasting the league's second-ranked DVOA pass defense and defensive touchdowns in back-to-back games prior to this week's matchup against the error-prone Haskins. An underrated defense, the Colts are also intriguing versus Nick Foles and the Bears. The Colts' zone cover scheme has allowed opponents to score only 18 points over their previous 2 games and now they get a Bears offense that lost Tarik Cohen to an ACL tear last weekend; Cohen isn't the focal piece of Chicago's offense, but his presence makes them less one-dimensional--look for Chicago to struggle moving the ball. Elsewhere, grab a few shares of Seattle against Ryan Fitzpatrick just in case we see a return of "FitzTragic," which has happened across his journeyman career. Limit your exposure to no more than 5% of all rosters, but we can all envision a scenario where the Seahawks just up by several touchdowns and Fitzpatrick melts down while trying to keep pace.

• Sleeper: The Cowboys defense is admittedly decimated with injuries at key spots and their box scores reflect that reality. But we would be remiss without addressing the fact that they allowed only 20-points to the Rams, who are a late field goal against the undefeated Bills from being undefeated themselves. In Week #2, the Cowboys defense allowed 39 points to the Falcons, but over half of those points came at the expense of short field positions due to fumbles early in the game. Last week, Dallas crumbled against the league's second-best offense (points per game) and Russell Wilson. This week, they'll return home to face Baker Mayfield, who has 27 passing touchdowns against 23 interceptions since the beginning of last season. Dallas will be unpopular due to recency bias, but Mayfield's reckless care of the football make them relevant as a sleeper candidate for large-field GPPs.
• Fade: As has been the case in previous weeks, you will typically be advise to fade the most popular defense on a given week (with a few exceptions). This Sunday, that distinction falls to the Rams at home against Daniel Jones and the Saquon Barkley-less Giants. The football Giants offense has no teeth without Barkley, but it is tough to justify the Rams in nearly 20% of tournament lineups at a price point approaching $4K. Settle in around 10% and diversify to get exposure to that defense that picks up a random defensive touchdown to catapult to the top of scoring at the position.

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