#Trendspotting: Week 13

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

As we approach the midway point of the 2020 season, let's dig into a variety of trends across the league. With this broader and more in-depth iteration of #Trendspotting, we will primarily focus on season-long formats as we decipher which trends that developed throughout the first seven weeks are here to stay in the long-term.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Russ is No Longer Cooking
• Under-the-Radar Defenses to Target
• Tweets of the Week

Note: Be sure to follow me on Twitter @StillZam to keep up-to-date with any and all tweets regarding updates to this article, or any other piece I write.

RUSS IS NO LONGER COOKING

Seattle offense since Week 10

• Neutral script passing rate: 47% (25th in the NFL)
• 225.0 passing yards/game
• 3 passing touchdowns
• 22.33 points/game

Commentary and Action Items

• Early in the season, Seattle's offense was one of the pass-happiest units in the NFL. Pass-catchers throughout the offense were reaping the rewards of the dramatic overhaul of play-calling tendencies. Unfortunately, in recent weeks, Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll have returned to their old run-heavy ways. Carroll has repeatedly stated that the Seahawks were awaiting the return of Chris Carson at running back to help reinforce the attack. Carson's return coincides with an uptick in rushing volume for the Seahawks' offense, making the entirety of Seattle's passing attack less enticing for fantasy purposes. This week, Carroll recycled an old and outdated theory when talking to the media, stating that the "magic number" to win a football game is to tally 50+ combined rushing attempts and completions. In recent years, Brian Schottenheimer made a similar assertion, although he believed the magic number to be 53. However, both statements are wildly off-base and signal an impending increase in rushing volume, which they believe will help win them games. Moving forward, DK Metcalf is clearly one of the NFL's most-talented receivers, and he should remain an elite fantasy option, considering he is a matchup problem regardless of who lines up across from him. However, Russell Wilson's and Tyler Lockett's weekly production will be much more volatile down the stretch. Unless the Seahawks fall behind early in games, they are unlikely to air the ball out in volume the way they did early in the season. Subsequently, this offense is unlikely to sustain three elite fantasy producers in the passing game.

UNDER-THE-RADAR DEFENSES TO TARGET

Here, utilizing Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS), we will identify what teams are outperforming their surface-level metrics. NSoS takes into account the average fantasy production of every player a defense matches up against and factors that into the equation when calculating how strong or weak a defense is defending a specific position.

TARGET WITH PASSING ATTACKS

The metrics listed below measure each defense's metrics against opposing quarterbacks. Utilizing these metrics, we can identify potential stack options for DFS and defenses to target in season-long formats with quarterbacks and pass-catchers.

• Kansas City Chiefs | NSoS: 32nd, DvP: 15th
• Chicago Bears | NSoS: 21st, DvP: 5th
• Cincinnati Bengals | NSoS: 29th, DvP: 17th

Commentary and Action Items

• The Kansas City Chiefs' surface-level metrics against quarterbacks make them look like a competent pass defense. However, there is more to this defense than what meets the eyes. Peeling back the layers of the Chiefs' 15th-ranked DvP numbers against opposing quarterbacks is a misleading number artificially bolstered by a soft schedule. In three out of the team's last five games, the Chiefs have gone up against Drew Lock in the snow, Sam Darnold and the Jets' anemic offense, and Teddy Bridgewater's conservative passing attack. Over the last five weeks, the Chiefs have been the worst defense in the NFL against quarterbacks, relative to each player's respective fantasy baseline production. Expect the Chiefs to find themselves in numerous shootouts down the stretch this season thanks to the team's combination of an incredible offense to go along with their porous secondary. Target the Chiefs' defense with weapons from opposing passing attacks frequently in season-long and DFS formats during the final weeks of the 2020 season.
• Moving further up the ranks, the Chicago Bears appear to have an elite pass defense this defense. As a top-five unit, according to DvP metrics, they appear to be a defense to avoid starting players against in fantasy football. However, much like the Chiefs, this ranking is buoyed by weak early-season competition and a slew of unsustainably poor game-scripts. After accounting for the strength of schedule the Bears have matched up against in recent weeks, the team falls being a top-five defense in the NFL down to the fringe of the bottom-third of the league. In their final five games of the season, the Bears match up against two sub-par passing attacks, the Lions and the Jaguars, that should serve to bolster their pass-defense metrics and further mislead most fantasy managers in the process. Across the other trio of games, against the Texans, Vikings, and Packers, pick on the Bears secondary while others fear this supposedly-stout group. Specifically in GPPs across all DFS sites, stacking passing attacks against Chicago at low percent-rostered marks is an extremely enticing opportunity to gain leverage against the field, providing the chance to rise up the leaderboards with a contrarian high-upside lineup.
• Towards the bottom of the ranks, the Cincinnati Bengals field the 17th-best defense against opposing quarterbacks in the NFL. But, after adjusting for the poor quality of opposing quarterback play they have faced, the Bengals reveal their stripes as the 4th-worst unit in the league against the pass. Recent matchups against Colt McCoy for half of a game and Alex Smith have helped to inflate Cincinnati's metrics against the pass. In their last two outings, the Bengals allowed just over 200 passing yards per game, a mark that would rank amongst the league's best defenses. However, this is a defense that lacks difference-makers at all three levels. The team recently parted ways with edge-rusher Carlos Dunlap, who is now making an impact rushing the passer for the Seattle Seahawks. Elsewhere, the Bengals' defense is a patchwork group, reminiscent of the island of misfit toys. Aside from Jessie Bates at safety, it is difficult to identify a single above-average producer within the starting ranks of this defense. As a result, Cincinnati's defense, which ranks 29th in the league in NSoS across their last five outings, is one to target week-in and week-out through the air. This weekend, consider stacking Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki together in lineups to take advantage of the Bengals' horrific secondary in DFS contests, and all three are viable starters in season-long formats.

TARGET WITH RUNNING BACKS

The metrics listed below are each defense's numbers against opposing running backs. Utilizing these metrics, we can identify rushing-attacks with the potential to erupt, aiding in the decision-making process when setting lineups in both DFS and season-long fantasy contests.

• Denver Broncos | NSoS: 30th, DvP: 16th
• San Francisco 49ers | NSoS: 17th, DvP: 5th

Commentary and Action Items

• Under the guidance of head coach Vic Fangio, the strength of the Denver Broncos should be the team's defense. While their offense is exceptionally poor, making the defense look comparatively strong, the defense still grades as a middle-of-the-road unit on the surface. In recent weeks, however, this team has shown its true colors defensively, collapsing under pressure against capable rushing attacks on multiple occasions. Last weekend, against the New Orleans Saints, Denver allowed Latavius Murray to run for over 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Week 10, the Broncos allowed Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker to combine for 193 yards and 4 scores on the ground. Moving forward, the Broncos are a defense to target relentlessly by utilizing opposing running backs in fantasy matchups. The team's struggles to compete, combined with their ineptitude stifling opposing rushing attacks, should lead to plenty of fantasy production to be had by their opposition. Despite Kansas City's pass-happy offensive approach with Patrick Mahomes II under-center, consider utilizing Clyde Edwards-Helaire or LeVeon Bell in DFS lineups on the primetime slate of games, while Edwards-Helaire is a startable option in season-long formats.
• Last season, during San Francisco's run as the NFC's representative in the Super Bowl, the 49ers' stout defense was the team's calling card. This season, their defense has regressed-- while they still remain an above-average unit, for the most part, they have proven to be susceptible against the run in recent weeks. Two weeks ago, when Drew Brees went down with the rib injury that will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Saints put up over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground against the 49ers. Then, last weekend, San Francisco allowed a career-high rushing performance to Cam Akers, who ran for 84 yards and a score on just 9 carries. Despite their reputation, the 49ers' run defense is not one to fear at this point in the season. This weekend, consider utilizing Buffalo's running backs as a way to differentiate lineups on the primetime slate of games. Additionally, quarterback Josh Allen's rushing floor should benefit from this newly-discovered weak point in San Francisco's defense.

TWEETS OF THE WEEK

Antonio Gibson is up to 8 3rd down touches now. He has passed up Aaron Jones (6).

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 30, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• While this note may seem inconsequential at first, Antonio Gibson making his way onto the field on third down is a massive revelation within Washington's offense. Coming out of college, where he primarily played wide receiver, Gibson's pass-catching ability was never in doubt. The questions surrounding Gibson were focused on his ability to run the ball between the tackles in an NFL offense. Gibson answered those questions early, proving capable of doing so and garnering the majority of Washington's first and second-down snaps. Puzzlingly, however, Gibson rarely played on third downs, when his pass-catching talents would be maximized. The Washington Football Team favored JD McKissic in this role and this limited Gibson's fantasy ceiling. Recently, Gibson has made his way onto the field for all three downs, and his fantasy results are booming because of it. The former-Memphis Tiger has found the endzone in five straight games, and he tied a season-high in both snap-share and total snaps played on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys. Playing all three downs, assuming a near-bell-cow role in Washington's backfield, it is all-systems-go for the Antonio Gibson rocket to end his rookie season. Expect Gibson to rank amongst the league's top producers at running back down the stretch this year, and he is a viable option in DFS and season-long every week, regardless of the matchup.

Bell cow usage from Austin Ekeler in his first game back:

* 73% snap rate
* 14 carries / 16 targets (31% share)
* Handled 4 of 6 red-zone opportunities
* Led all RBs in routes run this week (37)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 30, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Out west, in Los Angeles, another bell-cow re-emerged last weekend. Austin Ekeler returned in Week 12 from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for nearly two months. Surprisingly, Ekeler immediately assumed a near-bell-cow role in the Chargers' backfield. Most expected Ekeler to be eased back into the team's running back rotation, especially considering he was sharing time with the likes of Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson before he got injured. However, Anthony Lynn immediately turned to Ekeler as the team's clear-cut number-one running back. This incredible usage right out of the gate is a great sign for things to come here. Ekeler's involvement in Los Angeles' passing attack bolsters his floor and ceiling of weekly production. As one of the league's best pass-catching running backs, it is unsurprising to see the team's rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert, rely upon him heavily. Additionally, on the ground, Ekeler is one of the league's most efficient running backs. Ekeler consistency exceeds rushing yardage expectations (according to NFL Next Gen Stats,) and he is far more talented than any of the Chargers' alternate options. Expect Ekeler to contend for the overall number-one running back ranking from here on out this season. He is an elite selection in DFS and season-long matchups regardless of the matchup, thanks to his high rate of involvement within the team's offense, much like Antonio Gibson.