Links to similar discussions of other divisions:
Not that much is going to happen around NFL circles for the next month, save for a few trades and some third-wave free agent signings. That means it’s time to build up your drafting chops with best-ball drafts! What does each offense offer? I’ll break it down division by division. Let’s go to the NFC East, which now features Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Note: All ADP courtesy of Underdog
Dallas Cowboys
Offensive Outlook: The Cowboys offense will be in the running to be the best in the NFL and you should not leave your draft with at least a lesser piece of this attack. The offensive line was in shambles at the beginning of the year. Let’s pray for better health from La’el Collins, Zack Martin, and Tyron Smith this year. It should support at least three fantasy-relevant wide receivers and a fantasy-relevant tight end in addition to of course Ezekiel Elliott at running back, and Tony Pollard’s combination of big-play and Elliott-injury upside puts him high in the backup running back rankings.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott - 5th-6th round ADP
Prescott was #1 overall at quarterback on a points-per-game basis last year before he got hurt in Week 5 and he’s still usually the fifth quarterback off of the board. His offensive line will be better, but the defense should still throw gasoline on the shootout fire. Sign me up.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott - mid 1st round ADP
Tony Pollard - 9th round ADP
Was Elliott’s performance last year a product of a limited offense, or was it the beginning of the decline phase of his career? The answer might be moot as the Cowboys offense should offer enough scoring opportunities to justify Elliott’s pricy ADP, but it’s also not difficult to envision a scenario where Pollard forces his way into more of an RBBC this year. Pollard had more juice and more big-play potential last year, so that justifies paying a premium price for him among backup running backs along with league-winner value if Elliott goes down. Pollard is a must-pick if you go light on running back early.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper - 3rd/4th round ADP
CeeDee Lamb - 3rd/4th round ADP
Michael Gallup - 7th/8th round ADP
Cedrick Wilson - 15+ round ADP
Cooper and Lamb both have the potential to finish in the top five receivers this year. Cooper will have a higher weekly ceiling but comes with more wear and tear and injury risk. Lamb will have a higher weekly floor, but that is less valuable in best ball. Gallup is a riskier play week-to-week, but he will have his share of ceiling games, and best ball irons out the bumps with a host of other receivers to cover for Gallup’s valleys. Wilson is a name to file away in ultra-deep best ball drafts as the injury upside play if any of the top three go down.
Tight End
Blake Jarwin - 13th/14th round ADP
Jarwin would have been a shoo-in top 6-8 tight end last year if he hadn’t torn an ACL in Week 1, even with Dak Prescott out for almost three-quarters of the season. He’s the no-brainer TE2 plan no matter who your TE1 is because you want to deny other teams an easy out if they didn’t invest early at tight end.
Bottom Line: Don’t leave home without a Cowboy or two in your wallet.
New York Giants
Offensive Outlook: Was there an offense that underachieved more than the Giants last year? You can blame it on Saquon Barkley’s injury, but Daniel Jones, the offensive line, and Jason Garrett’s playcalling weren’t exactly bright spots either. The team added Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney to boost the wide receiver room but didn’t address the offensive line this offseason.
Quarterback
Daniel Jones - 14th round ADP
Jones has a latent running ability that Garrett tapped into at times last year, and adding Golladay can’t hurt, but we should still be in “believe it when you see it” mode when his ADP is in the same range as Carson Wentz and above Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, and Zach Wilson.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley - #5 overall ADP
Devontae Booker - 15+ round ADP
Barkley has been worth a rich ADP once in his three years in the league, and he could start slow coming off a knee surgery that was more complex than a mere ACL tear. He has big-play upside and should have target volume to sustain his floor, but do you want to build your best ball team around a player from this offense that is coming into the season less than 100%? Booker could have a decent start if he’s splitting work with Barkley and Wayne Gallman was solid in Barkley’s stead last year.
Wide Receiver
Kenny Golladay - 5th/6th round ADP
Sterling Shepard - 14th/15th round ADP
Kadarius Toney - 15+ round ADP
Darius Slayton - 15+ round ADP
Golladay without Matthew Stafford is a big unknown. Even at a couple of rounds discount from last year’s ADP, be wary of making Golladay a top 2-3 wide receiver on your roster. Shepard is ridiculously cheap and a good play to fade Kadarius Toney’s rookie year impact. If you have taken some riskier wide receiver plays from an injury or weekly boom/bust perspective, Shepard is a perfect choice to round out your roster, and a good choice in any scenario. Toney’s playmaking ability merits last-wide-receiver on your roster consideration, but so far he hasn’t gotten off on the right foot, or shoe as it may be. Slayton is a favorite late-round target with his big-play profile, proven deep ball chemistry with Jones, and a likelihood of favorable one-on-one matchups with Golladay drawing more attention from coverage.
Tight End
Evan Engram - 11th/12th round ADP
Fantasy players have appeared to give up hope that Engram will live up to the high expectations set by an outstanding rookie year. He’s not even a top-10 tight end after Jason Garrett misused him. Engram didn’t help issues by being unreliable when his number was called. There’s always a chance that he’s a surprise hit this year, but in a crowded and inefficient passing game, don’t bet a pick on it at ADP.
Bottom Line: There’s some value in the late-round wide receivers if you pick the right one(s), but otherwise this is an offense that is unlikely to yield players that are keys to best-ball league winning rosters.
Philadelphia Eagles
Offensive Outlook: The Eagles have a new head coach and offensive coordinator, Jalen Hurts will be the Week 1 starting quarterback, and the offensive line should be in a lot better shape than it was last year. This should be a better offense than last year’s edition, but that’s a low bar. If Hurts can improve as a passer and the team finally gets quality consistent play from their wide receivers, this could be one of the most improved offenses in the league.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts - 7th round ADP
Hurts running ability gives him a high weekly floor and ceiling, but he is only going about two rounds after the likes of Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott, and he is basically unproven over a whole season. He might hit, but there’s no reason to build your quarterback strategy around him.
Running Back
Miles Sanders - 3rd/4th round ADP
Kenny Gainwell - 15+ round ADP
Boston Scott - 15+ round ADP
Sanders is available at a two-round discount from last year’s price, but he is coming into the season ice cold and with a new regime to prove himself to. He’s a much less reliable option than the wide receivers available in the same range, and not preferable to Chris Carson at the same point in your draft. It’s not clear whether Boston Scott will have the backup/PPR play value he had last year with the fifth-round pick Gainwell in tow. There’s word that the rookie will play the Nyheim Hines role in Nick Sirianni’s offense, so he could be the better play of the Eagles' two late-round backs.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith - 7th round ADP
Jalen Reagor - 11th/12th round ADP
Travis Fulgham - 15+ round ADP
Hurts seemed to lean on Greg Ward as much as any Eagles wide receiver last year during his stint as the starter, so there’s hope for Smith to have a good enough season to justify his ADP. His ADP is low enough that it’s not a disaster for your team if Hurts and Smith don’t click or Hurts just an inefficient passer overall, and there’s some upside there, so I won’t talk you out of taking him at ADP even though he’s not part of my draft plans. Reagor has theoretical big-play upside, but there are probably better wide receiver options available when he is going off of the board. Fulgham has the first shot at the #3 receiver job for now and was a sensation for about a month last year, but is only an option for ultra-deep leagues.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert - 7th/8th round ADP
Zach Ertz - 15+ round ADP
Goedert isn’t going to help best ball teams keep up with rosters that include a top-five option, and he could disappoint if Zach Ertz is still an Eagle at the beginning of the season. You’re better off building your tight end plan around either earlier or later drafted tight ends. Ertz’s ADP is right if he’s an Eagle, but could be a value if he’s a Bill or Colt. If he was going to get traded, one would think it would have happened already, so he’s probably only an option if you need a boom/bust play in a three-late-tight-ends build.
Bottom Line: Do you believe in Jalen Hurts? If so, he and one or two of his top targets could be a stack that helps give you roster diversity in big contests.
Washington Football Team
Offensive Outlook: Few, if any offenses were held back as much by quarterback play as Washington’s was last year. That should change with the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The offense has the best skill player group they have had in a long time with the addition of Curtis Samuel and the continued maturation of Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. This offense could grow a lot more than anticipated if offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s ideas were held back by quarterback play last year.
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 13th round ADP
Taylor Heinecke - 15+ round ADP
Fitzpatrick has the danger of being benched at any time, but he also has a legit top 10 quarterback scoring profile, including the kind of peaks we love in best-ball leagues. The risk of benching is mitigated by the best ball format, so consider Fitzpatrick your top choice as a QB2 or as a QB1 to anchor a late three-quarterback build. In very deep or superflex best-ball drafts, Heinecke has some potential as the quarterback Ron Rivera will turn to if Fitzpatrick reverts to turnover binging.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson - 2nd round ADP
J.D. McKissic - 13th/14th round ADP
Gibson has been the subject of rave spring reviews (“night and day,” running back coach Randy Jordan said about Gibson's play compared to last year), and he should also get more involved in the passing game. He’s a worthy second-round pick and if the offense improves across the board, we could be saying he should have gone in the first round. McKissic was a best-ball wonder last year with his prolific pass-catching, but that will likely wane with more options and better quarterback play. He’s still a good RB5 if you have more risk than you like in your top four running backs.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin - 3rd/4th round ADP
Curtis Samuel - 7th/8th round ADP
Dyami Brown - 15+ round ADP
Adam Humphries - 15+ round ADP
How good can Terry McLaurin be with a real quarterback? Case freaking Keenum unlocked his value as a rookie. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gunslinging ways could vault McLaurin to elite fantasy heights. The only problem with taking McLaurin at ADP is that the other wide receivers available around that area are just as attractive, so make sure you build in an expectation of taking at least one wide receiver at the 3-4 turn if you draw a late first draft slot. Samuel is reunited with Scott Turner, who used him more as a runner when was calling the plays late in 2019 in Carolina. He’s a fine pick at ADP. Brown could be a second deep threat to punish teams that use a safety over the top on McLaurin, so his profile fits as a last wide receiver off of your bench. Humphries hasn’t stayed healthy as of late, but he does have a history with Fitzpatrick, so keep him on the ultradeep best ball radar.
Tight End
Logan Thomas - 9th round ADP
Thomas really came on late last season, but like McKissic you have to ask how much of his value came from poor quarterback play (and McLaurin being hobbled later in the season). He’s a solid pick at ADP, but unlikely to be a big overachiever unless other key pieces miss significant time.
Bottom Line: Washington’s offense is going to be better, and it could be a lot better. There’s a lot of room to exceed expectations here, especially for the first two Football Players off of the board -- Gibson and McLaurin.
