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Thursday Morning Update:
Update 1:18 PM EST
Apologies here, the place that I am for the weekend has incredibly bad internet. It appears that Mark Ingram II will miss this week which is a fairly big surprise. This makes Tony Jones a near must-play this week.
Just realized CeeDee Lamb is out, hopefully you all used that lineup. Once again I sincerely apologize for the lack of internet it was very unplanned.
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $7,500
- RB D'Andre Swift, DET, $8,000
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $6,500
- WR Cedrick Wilson, DAL, $5,600
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $8,300
- TE Dalton Schultz, DAL, $6,000
- Flex RB Tony Jones, NO $4,800
- TD Detroit, $3,700
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
The big injury this week is once again Alvin Kamara who continues to deal with a knee injury. It looks like he is going to miss this week which should make Mark Ingram II once again a great value play this week.
Mark Ingram II is also questionable this week as he missed practice on Tuesday. It sounds like it was a maintenance/rest day, but if misses practice on Wednesday we can start to get concerned. If both Kamara and Ingram were out, Tony Jones becomes a must play at his price of just $4,800.
Justin Fields will miss this week with a rib injury. Andy Dalton is a low upside play at this point in his career, as the Bears are utilizing him purely as a game manager.
Amari Cooper will miss this week due to Covid-19. This should put Michael Gallup in play this week.
CeeDee Lamb surprisingly looks like he will play if he is cleared by an independent neurologist as he was practicing just three days after suffering a concussion. If Lamb is unable to go, Cedrick Wilson becomes a great play this week as he saw 7 targets mostly when Lamb left the game early. He’s a low upside player but does offer salary savings that we desperately need on this slate.
Position Thoughts:
Quarterback-
This is likely the easiest position of the week, as there are really only two viable quarterbacks to play this week with any level of confidence which is Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. They’re both expensive, but the difference here is the floor of Allen wins out. The Cowboys offense looked out of sorts last week against Kansas City as they failed to score a touchdown. With no Amari Cooper, and with a potential run-heavy approach, this is likely a situation to just pay up for Josh Allen. The Bills can win this game only in one way, and that is on the arms and legs of Josh Allen as it should be expected that they will have zero success running against the best run stopping defense in the NFL in the New Orleans Saints. If you want to take a cheap GPP quarterback, look at Derek Carr who should have the most upside of any of the remaining quarterbacks as Carr has thrown for 300 or more yards in five games this season and makes for a nice stack with Darren Waller.
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Quarterback |
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|
Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
|
1 |
23.4 |
$8,800 |
|
|
2 |
20.9 |
$8,200 |
|
|
3 |
17.4 |
$7,400 |
|
Running Back-
The running back position is easier to figure out than it seems at first glance. A lot of people are going to immediately try to build a lineup with Ezekiel Elliott, but this is where the edge could be this week. Elliott is struggling with a knee injury which has greatly limited his workhorse volume and production. On these small slates, you typically have to take a stand, and fading Elliott could be the stand that you need to win this week.
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Running Back |
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|
Rank |
Player |
Projected |
Salary |
Commentary |
|
1 |
17.4 |
$7,500 |
Extremely favorable matchup against the Lions, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs |
|
|
2 |
D'Andre Swift |
16.2 |
$8,000 |
Has been dominant the last two weeks as he's topped 130 yards in each of those games. Neutral matchup against the Bears |
|
3 |
13.8 |
$6,600 |
Averaging 20 touches over last two games, with Kamara's return pending, expect a heavy dosage in a tough matchup against Buffalo |
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|
4 |
16.6 |
$8,400 |
Struggling a little bit with a knee injury, volume is a concern as he's only averaging 11 carries per game over last 3. |
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|
5 |
12.3 |
$6,700 |
Volume is a major concern as he is averaging just 8 carries over his last two games. |
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6 |
9.7 |
$5,900 |
GPP play. Has seen an increased volume with Elliott's knee issues |
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Wide Receiver-
Expect there to be a significant amount of overlap this week at other positions, and this week really coming down to picking the correct wide receivers. It’s unlikely that we will be able to afford someone like Stefon Diggs who will be matched up against a tough Saints defense, with spending on the top-end quarterbacks and running backs, so picking the mid-range wide receivers correctly will be vital.
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projected |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
13.4 |
$6,500 |
It looks like CeeDee Lamb will return this week, which may end up helping Gallup. Gallup is a great secondary receiver, but has struggled at times with the primary focus on him. |
|
|
2 |
Cedrick Wilson (If Lamb is out) |
10.12 |
$5,600 |
Will be forced into a much larger role as the number two receiver if Lamb is out this week. Has shown good touchdown equity scoring three touchdowns this season in a limited role |
|
3 |
11.5 |
$6,200 |
Has become the number one receiver in Las Vegas. While he does not have the highest upside, he is a high floor player that Derek Carr loves in the red zone. Has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games |
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|
4 |
9.5 |
$5,800 |
The Saints are great at taking out your best wide receiver, while being vulnerable to secondary options. Marshon Lattimore will likely be all over Diggs this week, so Sanders could become a nice cheap option. |
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|
5 |
Tre'Quan Smith |
13.8 |
$5,900 |
Has been the Saints top receiver the last three weeks. In what should be a high scoring game, he's not a bad option to get 4-5 receptions |
|
6 |
CeeDee Lamb (If Active) |
TBD |
$7,700 |
Appears to be returning this week from a concussion. He makes for an outstanding GPP play, just difficult to build into cash this week as it prevents you from taking |
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6 |
11.4 |
$6,800 |
GPP play this week. Mooney has big play potential, but at $6,800 the price is too high for cash. |
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Tight End-
The tight end position this week really comes down to a key decision. The question is whether to play Darren Waller or to pay down and take a chance that one of the cheaper players will work out. Waller has bounced back nicely after some mid-season struggles, but he has topped 90 yards in two of his last three games. The other realistic options here are T.J. Hockenson, who has continued to be consistent throughout the season, but does not have a touchdown since Week 2 which is a major problem when someone such as Waller can put up 20 points in a week.
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projected |
Salary |
Commentary |
|
1 |
12.2 |
$7,300 |
The price is too cheap for the combination of floor and upside here. Dallas has struggled against elite tight ends this season. |
|
|
2 |
8.9 |
$6,100 |
Outside of a rain soaked game in Pittsburgh, Hockenson has been consistent most of the season. He's going to get between 45-70 yards, the problem is he doesn't have a touchdown since Week 2. If he corrects that, he's a great play. |
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3 |
9.5 |
$6,000 |
Very similar to Hockenson, except just a little less consistent as two of his last four games he's had under 15 yards. |
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|
4 |
5.8 |
$5,000 |
High yardage upside punt play. Has not scored a touchdown all season, the floor is just not high enough for Kmet in cash |
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5 |
8.9 |
$5,900 |
Point chasing after a big game last week. Far too inconsistent for cash games, makes for a great GPP stack with Josh Allen. |
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|
6 |
4.9 |
$4,500 |
Pure punt play, hoping for a touchdown here. |
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Lineups
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH if CeeDee Lamb is out- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.14)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $7,500
- RB D'Andre Swift, DET, $8,000
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $6,500
- WR Cedrick Wilson, DAL, $5,600
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, BUF, $5,800
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,300
- Flex RB Mark Ingram II, NO, $6,600
- TD Detroit, $3,700
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH if CeeDee Lamb is playing- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 121.03)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,800
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $7,500
- RB D'Andre Swift, DET, $8,000
- WR Michael Gallup, DAL, $6,500
- WR Hunter Renfrow, LV, $6,200
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, BUF, $5,800
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,100
- Flex RB Mark Ingram II, NO, $6,600
- TD Buffalo, $4,500
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