Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
There will likely only be one update this morning. However, I do post on Twitter every time there is an update as well as answer questions/interact with subscribers so if you aren't following, give it a shot.
https://twitter.com/devinknottsfbg
Sunday Morning Update #1
The big news overnight is that the Rams are not optimistic that Darrell Henderson will play this week. This puts Sony Michel into a premiere running back spot this week as the Rams are double digit favorites and the highest projected scoring team this week. At $5,300, he is going to shoot up to one of the top plays on this slate. Looking at where to upgrade the lineup, the one guy that I keep coming back to is Justin Jefferson and the damage that elite wide receivers have done to this Lions defense. It is a bit risky, as Jefferson is not going to be a highly rostered player this week, but much like Joe Mixon last week taking a stand on a player you feel great about can often lead to great results.
Other changes to the lineup:
Upgrading Foster Moreau to George Kittle. Moreau can very easily be a trap this week as while he should see an increase in workload due to Darren Waller being out, he simply is not that great of a player. Kittle has struggled, but has the most upside of any tight end on this slate with the exception of maybe Rob Gronkowski. Finally, to make the lineups work, I had to downgrade from Miami to Washington's defense. Admittedly, I don't love this move, but the only other option was to downgrade Diontae Johnson and with his target workload (13 targets in each of his last three games), he just felt safer than Hunter Renfrow this week.
Primary Lineup
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
- RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
- WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,200
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,000
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,300
- Flex RB Sony Michel, LAR, $5,300
- TD Washington, $3,400
Late Swap If Darrell Henderson is active-
All signs are appearing that Henderson will be out, but putting a lineup in here in case Henderson somehow does play this week. I don't love this as much as the A.J. Dillon late swap from last week, so let's hope Henderson doesn't play which appears to be the case.
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
- RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
- WR Van Jefferson, LAR, $5,800
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,000
- TE Fabian Moreau, LV, $5,000
- Flex RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $7,600
- TD Washington, $3,400
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Tampa Bay (at Atlanta) 30.75 points
- LA Rams (vs Jacksonville) 30.5 points
- Indianapolis (at Houston) 27.25 points
- Minnesota (at Detroit) 27 points
Week 12 Recap
This is quickly turning into the best season of this article as last week was another winning week. The primary cash lineup put up 116.1 points in a very low scoring week across the industry.
What went right:
- Taking Joe Mixon essentially sealed the deal from the start this week as getting a low rostered running back who puts up 30 points made for an easy week. Mixon had 165 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Bengals crushed the Steelers.
- Deebo Samuel once again paid off even though he was despite getting hurt and leaving the game early. Samuel primarily was a running back this past week as he ran for 66 yards and found the end zone twice on this slate.
- Cincinnati’s defense looked great against Pittsburgh allowing just 10 points and at $3,300 were a great way to save money last week.
What went wrong:
- Dan Arnold got hurt early in this game, so even though his performance was lacking, Dallas Goedert who was the other cheap tight end that people played actually was outscored by Arnold as Goedert had 1 catch for 0 yards.
- Miles Sanders was a tough one as he looked great with 64 yards on just 9 carries, but did leave for a portion of this game with an ankle injury which gave more volume to Boston Scott. Disappointing result in what could have been a big performance for Sanders. It does appear that this will continue to be a timeshare moving forward.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.
- Dalvin Cook will miss this week with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, FanDuel was wise this week as they’ve seen Alexander Mattison become mega chalk in weeks where Cook missed. Mattison is very expensive this week at $8,700.
- DAndre Swift will miss this game with a shoulder injury which will open up an opportunity for Jamaal Williams. At just $6,500, Williams is not the most exciting running back on this slate as his skillset is somewhat limited, but he is a solid value play especially if he can find the end zone.
- The Giants passing game is all sort of banged up. Mike Glennon will start for Daniel Jones and it looks like he will be without Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and John Ross leaving only Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as trustable wide receivers. On other sites, where pricing is tighter, it may make sense to look at potentially going down to Glennon simply because he should throw for 200 yards and a touchdown, but on FanDuel it’s best to just avoid this situation altogether.
- A big one that we are monitoring is Boston Scott who is questionable with an illness. If he’s unable to go, Jordan Howard is already out for this game, so Miles Sanders would elevate into a very good play this week against the Jets. Jalen Hurts is also questionable which could lead to more running opportunities for these running backs.
- Darren Waller is out leaving Foster Moreau as the starting tight end for Las Vegas. Moreau is a decent value play this week, albeit much better on other sites.
- Deebo Samuel will miss this week which opens up significant opportunities for the 49ers. The person who gains the most out of this situation is Elijah Mitchell as Samuel the last two weeks has really served as a running back as he only had two receptions over his last two games. The passing game could also see an uptick as they will throw the ball more than they have the last few weeks which could open up opportunities for George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.
Fairly Easy Week This Week
We are going to approach this week in a little bit different of a format where we have rankings for each of the positions as well some commentary next to each of the players. Let me know what you think (positive or negative) about this as we’re trying out different ways to show some of the analysis. It very well could be a one-time format change and we reverse back to the old format next week, but wanted to see about having actual rankings on this as you build your lineup.
This week seems to be a fairly easy build. Yes, you could go with Jonathan Taylor at $10,500 and just rely on him to carry your team, but the lack of low-end options really is going to hurt that lineup this week. There are a number of great values this week at the running back position, so most people will take three mid-tier running backs and then spend up at the wide receiver and quarterback positions.
Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
22.4 |
$8,100 |
Seems like the no brainer play this week. Tampa is the highest projected team at 30.75 points, Brady is coming off of a bad week which is a great sign as he has thrown for over 300 yards every week after a poor performance |
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2 |
21.2 |
$8,200 |
Herbert has been on a tear lately, throwing for 300+ yards in back to back performances. Also has a solid rushing upside as he has ran for 30 yards in each of his last two games. Falls #2 to Brady just because of a west coast team going to a 1PM EST game in the cold and rainy Cincinnati |
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3 |
23.6 |
$8,500 |
Looked awful against the Browns, but Pittsburgh can't stop anyone right now on the ground. Highest upside of any quarterback this week, but a lower floor than Brady/Herbert |
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4 |
18.3 |
$6,900 |
Giants have allowed 275 passing yards or more in three of their last four games.Tua has shown upside against bad defenses before as he has thrown for 270 yards or more in 3 of his last 6 games. Likely don't need to go down that low this week. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
15.9 |
$6,200 |
$6,200 is too good of a price for Gibson as the Football Team will be without JD McKissic forcing Gibson into an even larger role than he had previously held. Gibson is coming off of a 29 carry performance against Seattle. |
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2 |
Eli Mitchell |
15.9 |
$7,600 |
Mitchell has quietly gone under the radar, and really has not gotten any respect, but the guy continues to produce. Has rushed for 90 yards or more in four of his last five games. With no Deebo Samuel, expect a big game from Mitchell this week. |
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3 |
16.3 |
$7,300 |
Touchdown dependent, but continues to produce. Conner has scored eight touchdowns over his last five games. The floor is low for Conner if he can't find the end zone as he is averaging just 51 yards over his last two games. |
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4 |
14.9 |
$6,500 |
Not a great running back, but the price is a great one. To get a running back at $6,500 who is going to touch the ball 17-20 times against a slightly favorable matchup in Minnesota should be able to get to value even if he can't find the end zone. |
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5 |
16.5 |
$7,700 |
Fournette has been dominant at times this season including last week where he ran for three touchdowns and caught a fourth. The price is a little high for Fournette's floor however as in his three prior games he averaged just 36 yards rushing without scoring a touchdown. |
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6 |
22.4 |
$10,500 |
There is nothing bad to say about Taylor other than the price. The matchup is perfect as he's facing a bad Houston defense, but paying $10,500 is very difficult to fit in your lineup |
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7 |
18.4 |
$8,700 |
Similar to Taylor, Mattison looks to be in a great spot this week facing Detroit who are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The problem is at $8,700, the price is just too high for what my builds are this week. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
13.1 |
$6,400 |
Renfrow has evolved into the top receiving option in Las Vegas and with no Darren Waller should be in an elite spot this week coming off of an 8 reception 134 yard performance on Thanksgiving. Facing a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers |
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2 |
15.9 |
$9,000 |
Kupp has topped 90 yards in seven consecutive games as he continues to be the league's best wide receiver. The Rams are big favorites this week against the Jaguars and expected to score the second-most points on this slate. Expect Kupp to break his touchdown drought and find the end zone this week. |
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3 |
16.3 |
$7,300 |
Keenan Allen provides a stability to your lineup that very few players in that price range provide. Allen has 10 or more targets in five consecutive games. The only concern with Allen is that he has just two touchdowns on the season. |
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4 |
14.9 |
$7,200 |
Diontae Johnson is turning into a very similar player to Keenan Allen. Johnson has 13 or more targets in each of his last three games and is facing a Ravens team that the way to beat them is through the air. The only concern with Johnson continues to be Ben Roethlisberger's arm which has struggled at times this season. |
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5 |
15.8 |
$8,000 |
Jefferson has dominated in three consecutive difficult matchups. This week he gets a much easier matchup this week. Jefferson had 124 yards on 7 receptions earlier this season against Detroit. Detroit has struggled at stopping elite wide receivers as Ja'Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Jefferson, Davante Adams, and Deebo Samuel have all torched this defense. |
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6 |
11.8 |
$7,000 |
With no Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk will be expected to step up this week. Aiyuk is likely more of a GPP play this week as he has been inconsistent this season due to low target volume. |
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7 |
11.05 |
$5,800 |
Jefferson is a nice low-end option on this slate as he is in a high projected game for the Rams, in a favorable matchup against the Jaguars, and a nice way to save some salary while still getting exposure to this game. Jefferson has 6 or more targets in his last five games, but is big play dependent |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
11.9 |
$6,300 |
Kittle has struggled this season, but if there was a spot for him to break out, it would be this game. The team is going to need him to step up without their primary target in Deebo Samuel. Kittle has just six targets over his last two games, but is in a favorable matchup against Seattle who have struggled against good tight ends this season including allowing 88 yards and 2 touchdowns to Zach Ertz last week. |
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2 |
13.1 |
$7,000 |
Gronkowski is in a great spot this week, the only problem is he is difficult to fit into your lineup. Since returning from injury, Gronk has been a focal point of this offense as he has topped 70 yards in both games and had 121 yards last game. With no Antonio Brown this week, Gronkowski is the guy you want to pay up for if you can afford him. |
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3 |
9.1 |
$5,000 |
With no Darren Waller, Foster Moreau is going to need to step up in this offense. Moreau had five targets last game, but is a limited skillset tight end as he caught just one of those five passes last week. His floor is very low, but does provide a nice savings this week at a position that is not very strong. |
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4 |
8.3 |
$5,500 |
Zach Ertz has been quietly consistent since being traded to Arizona before exploding last week with 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ertz was averaging 45 yards per game prior to that performance last week in Arizona. |
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Defense |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
Miami |
9.1 |
$4,000 |
The Dolphins facing Mike Glennon and the Giants without Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard at a very reasonable price. Dolphins have not allowed more than 17 points over the last four weeks. |
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2 |
LA Rams |
11.2 |
$4,900 |
They're expensive, but they're 5th in the NFL in sacks facing a rookie quarterback who is struggling as the Jaguars are averaging 11.2 points per game over their last five games. |
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3 |
Washington |
7.1 |
$3,400 |
The Football Team are likely the cheap option on this slate. They've played well as of late even without Chase Young as they shut down Tom Brady, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson in consecutive weeks. |
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LINEUPS-
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 133.9)
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
- RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
- WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,200
- WR Hunter Renfrow, LV, $6,400
- TE Foster Moreau, LV, $5,000
- Flex RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $7,600
- TD Miami, $4,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FBG Optimal Lineup- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.3)
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
- RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
- WR Van Jefferson, LAR, $5,800
- WR Hunter Renfrow, LV, $6,400
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,300
- Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $7,300
- TD Tampa Bay, $4,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Cincinnati/Los Angeles Stack- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.2)
- QB Justin Herbert, LAC, $8,200
- RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
- RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $7,500
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,300
- WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,200
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,300
- Flex RB James Conner, ARI, $7,300
- TD Washington, $3,400