The launch of Twitch in 2011 changed the gaming landscape forever. The user gave up control, and the experience became passive. Entertainment took a different slant spawning the creation of ESports. We used the Footballguy's Draft Dominator as a guide in the first two parts of this series while still making selections based on personal preference. Part 1 highlighted the value of an early-round pick in building a balanced team. Part 2 touched on the ability of the middle rounds to avoid missing positional runs and game theory aspects to start and continue runs.
In part three, we will take a different path. To show the true capability of the Draft Dominator, we will take control out of our hands and fully allow the Dominator software to guide our actions. Picking later in Round 1 has historically spawned lower win rates. While consensus leans strongly in one direction on early choices, these spots open up to unique team-building approaches and aggressive risk targeting. As Ryan Weisse says, "It is get-your-guy territory."
The settings are the same as before: 12-team PPR, one quarterback with three wide receivers.
Counter-Strike: Differentiation Strategy
Almost every draft in this format will begin with running backs. Unsurprisingly the first eleven picks featured seven running backs and Travis Kelce along with three wide receivers. The Dominator leans into the three-wide receiver PPR settings and suggests a Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins core. Ridley and Hopkins were the eighth and tenth highest scorers in PPR on a per-game basis.
The pressure to grab a running back early is real, but the goal is to gain an edge on your league. Drawing a late draft spot will eliminate an elite running back absent a potential discount on an injury concern like Saquon Barkley. In 2020, there was a seven-point weekly difference between the RB3 and RB8. Selecting a lower-tier running back to start your draft, you not only construct a roster with a lower ceiling, but you also allow the elite players at wide receiver to slide down the draft board.
One of the biggest mistakes a drafter can make is locking on certain positions early and forcing a team construction. In this simulation, the value at wide receiver allows the team to remain competitive with teams who started wide receiver while doubling back and locking in the best wide receiver two in the league.
How do other staff members attack these draft positions?
Drafting late has always been prime "Get your guy" territory. You have to wait and see who falls in the first round but get two picks pretty close to each other. Knowing you don't pick again for a while, ADP goes out the window. If you want a Round 3 player, you better take him with the first pick in Round 2 because he is unlikely to make it back to you. The feeling of immediacy comes in every even round of the draft. -Ryan Weisse
Like the early pick, this isn't easy to navigate. You will have long waits between choices, but you also do not get the elite player, unlike the early choice. This factor makes this position just that much worse than the early pick and is my least favorite. -Dominick Petrillo
You don't want to reach a guy who may or may not be a stud; you want the running back with 275 touches locked down, the pass-catcher who will see 130+ targets. -Sam Wagman
Fortnite: Strength on Strength
Operating outside of heavy positional bias, the Dominator recommends Robert Woods as our third pick. Selecting Woods in this position would unquestionably give this team the best three wide receivers in the starting lineup, as Woods lands on the cusp of top-12 wide receiver territory in Footballguys' top 300.
This wide receiver group would grant about a five-point expected advantage over the rest of the league. Once selected, the adaptability of the Dominator kicks in as David Montgomery ascends from the fifth-best selection to the second-best. No tool in the industry adapts to actions in your draft like the Dominator. Our pick is Chris Carson; he finished last season as RB13 on a per-game basis, presenting a rare opportunity to potentially add a backend top-12 level player in the fourth round.
There is no sugar coating this draft selection. In part one (REFERENCE), I discussed the ability of early draft slots to build an elite core at multiple positions. Creativity and risk profile will be paramount to compete without a top running back at an end slot.
How does the staff see it?
Drafting late is stressful but carries the most reward if you pick your players right. Planting your flag on the player is excellent, and when he blows up, and you took him at just the right time, there are few better feelings in fantasy football. -Ryan Weisse
The best thing to do with this, or any selection, is to look and see where you can get good value and possible stacks. This season, for instance, if you have a late pick, it gives you a path to stacking the Dallas Cowboys. Especially if you believe Dak Prescott can return from injury. Ezekiel Elliott is currently going at an average of pick seven. On top of this, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are both late-round three picks. If you like the offense, you can get the running back and wide receiver from this offense. These little tricks or nuggets can help you win your league. If something happens to Prescott or a quarterback like him, and you have his teammates, it could also backfire. -Dominick Petrillo
I like to hammer wide receiver in the middle rounds, as the receiver pool is deep in recent years. This depth leads to heavy value in these rounds, and it becomes easy to build out your roster in a consistent manner. -Sam Wagman
League of Legends: Finding Our Champion
In 2020, two players carrying an ADP around the 60th pick were the most represented in championship rosters: Stefon Diggs and Darren Waller. This position in the draft determines success. Talent that could push towards the top of the draft is still available, but landmines are more prevalent.
The Dominator identifies Tee Higgins as the best player available, slotting into the open flex position. Higgins is an exciting move from a team-building standpoint, locking in a high upside player at the flex with multiple positions available. Higgins lands at WR21 in Footballguys rankings, which quadruples our team’s strength at wide receiver while covering bye weeks and potential lost time for injuries.
After filling the flex, the Dominator swings hard towards open positions with four running backs on top of the best available pick queue. Kareem Hunt is the selection; he finished as RB21 in PPR. Hunt is an exciting conversation. The appetite for top running backs pushes them up the board, but at 13.7 ppg, Hunt sacrifices just 0.6 PPR points on an average RB2. Paired with Chris Carson, we have built a roster that waited on running back and surrendered roughly four points over an average backfield, a difference accounted for by the strength at wide receiver.
Closing The Draft
With the seventh and eighth round picks, we can round out our starting lineup with Jalen Hurts and Noah Fant, giving two mid-range targets capable of posting high-scoring weeks. One last time with the Dominator, as soon as these two picks hit, filling these one-off positions, the remaining quarterbacks and tight ends largely disappear from the ranks. Again, the adaptive value of the software is an excellent guide to building a successful bench.
One of the most underrated aspects of fantasy football is building a bench to compliment your starting lineup.
In a roster built on wide receivers, the need for bench depth diminishes. It is unlikely a pick in this range will be a regular contributor absent injury, so carrying one or two high upside relatively unknown young players like Darnell Mooney or Elijah Moore gives roster upside and creates a potential trade piece. The need for a more proven player with a lower ceiling like Cole Beasley or T.Y. Hilton disappears. This concept also works with running backs; an early running back build will see less utility from a pass-catching satellite back like Nyheim Hines. Target handcuff backs who could backup your early investments or turn into league-shifting flex plays.
Utilizing Footballguys' Draft Dominator will help you spot trends in your league and build a well-rounded roster tailored to your league settings.
