Readers of a certain age almost surely encountered Edward Packard's Choose Your Own Adventure series. Each page weaves into a complex decision tree that ultimately led to the reader's victory or peril. Fantasy drafts follow a similar concept, with each pick shaping the final destination. Drafting a quarterback early grants a positional advantage but impacts future decisions to address roster shortages elsewhere.
This series will be a user guide on attacking the draft from different starting positions. First up is the top third of the draft, or picks one through four.
Methods for selecting draft order abound, from the frustrating of watching a stalled runner on 100-Yard Dash to many unique ideas across the web. Few match the random draw. Similar to the opening of Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On," the loading screen teases you, unsure what will happen next but knowing you will enjoy the journey. The applications open, and you find to your surprise, you are on the clock. Now what?
Do not fret; you have a friend. Load up the Footballyguys Draft Dominator and plan your adventure.
The Narrative Guides to Early Running Back
Starting most draft formats with a running back is a long-time staple, and for a good reason. No position provides the combination of a stable floor and high-end point totals like an elite running back. The position has seen the leading fantasy producer every season dating back to 2015.
To further emphasize the top-end value at the position, a top-five running back finish has averaged 22.46 PPR points per game throughout those five seasons. The average of the running backs comprising rankings six through ten has averaged just 17.66. That five-point advantage significantly swings your upside.
No player drives that point home further than the current 1.01, Christian McCaffrey. Injuries cost him in 2020, but McCaffrey finished one of the most dominant fantasy seasons in 2019, outsourcing the second place Dalvin Cook by 9 points. Before progressing further, time to poll other members of the Footballguys' Special Contributors program for their thoughts:
“Drafting from the first four to five slots this season pretty much demands you go running back early and often. There are truly no better options than a stud back in Round 1.” - Ryan Weisse
“This is a great position if you want an elite running back. It is also bad. Yes, you get a great player, but you also have a long time to wait before making your next pick. This can allow those who draft ahead of you to steal more value. Despite most players preferring a top three or four selection, it is my least favorite position to draft from.” -Dominick Petrillo
“The first five rounds of a draft for me are typically for grabbing your guys that will go on to form the core of your team. Even more important for me when targeting my core guys here is to go for guaranteed production.” -Sam Wagman
One important side note on Superflex leagues before continuing. League makeup has a heavy influence on quarterback values. Leagues larger than 12 teams or dynasty formats will place a more significant premium on elite quarterback selections. The customization of Footballguys' Draft Dominator can be a real key. Fortunately, the Dominator works with most major league providers to import your custom league settings.
Picks 3 and 4: A Fork In The Road
The Draft Dominator simulation further enforces the importance of grabbing an elite back early. The simulation saw 12 backs go off the board between the 1st overall and pick 23. The settings loaded in are 12-team and PPR, with each team starting three wide receivers plus one flex. This format does push wide receivers up the board as nine went off in the stretch. In my simulation, the recommended options are Keenan Allen, Darren Waller, Allen Robinson, and Antonio Gibson. It opens up an intriguing roster construction conversation.
We hit the first real decision tree with the third-round pick. Footballguys' Dave Kluge wrote a piece on the value of building a Zero Wide Receiver team. The league has seen increased rushing attempts (25.84 per team in 2018 to 26.86 in 2020), but the reality is these attempts diversified. The league is entering a new era, with RPO (run-pass options) elements and creative hybrid wide receiver roles bubbling up from college to siphon rushes. The running backs in this range are usually a gamble with committee roles and a drop-off in points per game from the running back tiers previously mentioned.
The first of the selections is easy in this position, Raiders tight end Darren Waller. Three tight ends (Travis Kelce, Waller, and George Kittle) produced a significant edge on the rest of the field. In Waller's case, a 5.2 ppg advantage over the fourth-place tight end. For context, the gap is the same as the difference between 2020's WR4 Calvin Ridley and a low-end third wide receiver on your roster.
The choice to select a running back and tight end combo in this spot is a tactic both Ryan and Sam support:
“In the second round, you've likely missed out on Kelce and even Kittle, so going running back again is safest. The third round will be your first big decision. Do you go running back again, locking up a great stable? Do you finally add your first wide receiver? Or do you add Darren Waller, the last of the Top 3 tight ends? That decision will influence your next three or so rounds.” -Ryan Weisse
“I want at least two top-tier running backs and one solid wide receiver and tight end each. This year I do not want to leave drafts without one of the top four tight ends (Kelce/Waller/Kittle/Pitts).” -Sam Wagman
For the test case, the selection of Darren Waller and Antonio Gibson hit the Dominator.
Picks 5 and 6: You Near The Edge of a Cliff
Currently, drafters in the early portion have the opportunity to triple up on a league-shifting advantage. The Draft Dominator allows us to take a top-five quarterback with the selection of Lamar Jackson. Drafters can select one of the best running backs, tight ends, and quarterbacks in our scenario. That creates a league-wide positional advantage in over half of the starting lineup spots.
Quarterbacks have traditionally been a position to wait on, but the tide is shifting. After Patrick Mahomes II in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019 assaulted record books, we saw Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott ascend to a similar level. All five men have averaged at or above 25 fantasy ppg. For perspective, in 2018 and 2019, the number two fantasy quarterbacks in those seasons averaged 22 points.
The combinations of explosive offenses and rushing floor create rarely seen upside that can swing matchups. In 2016 and 2017, only one quarterback performance per season cleared 45 points. That number exploded, seeing 19 instances over the past three seasons. In short, the position has transformed into one regularly capable of deciding weekly matchups.
With the second pick, on the turn, we can begin to shift to the focus we will maintain for the rest of the draft: building running back and wide receiver depth. A significant advantage to an early tight end and quarterback in a 12-team league is the freedom from rostering a backup. We know Jackson and Waller will occupy two starting lineup spots weekly. Unless value presents itself, the bench is entirely running back and wide receivers with hopes of spiking value to the overall roster.
The Rest of the Way
Once you get several picks into a draft, your location in each round losses significance.
Utilizing the Draft Dominator and adopting a draft outline like this will leave you with a balanced roster capable of capitalizing on high upside throughout the starting lineup. Aggressively fill the bench with handcuff running backs and young breakout potential wide receivers to truly build a dominant lineup. Footballguys will be there to help on the journey, but the destination is your choice.
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