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In 1996, Nintendo continued its string of innovations by releasing Mario 64. Players were met with unprecedented freedom of choice, though not every path was immediately available. In the fantasy football world, this is like drafting from a middle pick. Drafters are allowed some freedom while other avenues are closed off.
Picking between the fifth and eighth picks nearly erases the possibility of starting your team with an elite running back, at least one who does not possess questions about health or workshare. In most instances, you will see Footballguys’ consensus top four running backs: Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry, already off the board before you are on the clock. This stretch offers one of the most challenging choices: start your team with a running back facing questions or opt for differentiation? First, it is time to head back to the Draft Dominator.
As with our previous instance, the settings are one quarterback, two running back, three wide receivers, and one flex in a 12 team, one point per reception league. For this exercise, we draft from pick number six.
The Quest For Stars
Mario 64 started as an open-ended quest with a guided narrative. The key was to start by accumulating stars to build a strong base and open up new paths. Early in fantasy drafts, the experience is similar; lock in stars and continue on your journey.
Predictably, the top four running backs plus Saquon Barkley ran off the board, leaving a difficult choice. Running backs like Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Aaron Jones come with questions about a potential committee capping their upside. Wide receiver has more depth due to an influx of young talent and evolving passing schemes. However, there is one clear path to differentiate your team: Travis Kelce.
Kelce's 312 PPR points were the second-highest tight end season in the last 20 years, trailing only Rob Gronkowski's 330 points in 2011. Traditionally, taking an early tight end lowered a team's ceiling on total points relative to the league, but that was not the case with Kelce. His career year would have placed him as the No. 4 running back in fantasy last season. Kelce had a near nine-point weekly advantage over the No. 4 tight end, Mark Andrews, on a per-game basis.
Early draft picks build your foundation and need to give an advantage over your league. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, no player accomplishes this better than Kelce. Academically, there is a case to take Kelce second overall in a draft, so the ability to draw a later slot, draft earlier in round two, and gain a league-wide advantage due to current values is a hidden bonus.
Where do other members of the Footballguys team land:
"Drafting from the middle makes for tough early decisions but feels better later in the draft when you have fewer spots between your picks. In Round 1, you have to decide between Travis Kelce, one of the top wide receivers, or riskier running backs. My vote is Kelce every time." - Ryan Weisse
"Unlike the early pick, I love the middle of the round to have a choice. You may still end up with an elite running back if one falls; otherwise, you can grab the best wide receiver and still get a value at running back in the second round. The value of these picks is generally higher than having an early selection." -Dominick Petrillo
"I want at least two top-tier running backs and one solid wide receiver and tight end each. This year I do not wish to leave drafts without one of the top four tight ends(Kelce/Waller/Kittle/Pitts)." -Sam Wagman
Framing The Team
As Mario continues on his quest, new tiers are unlocked, and the challenge increases. Two paths become apparent in the second and third round: lock in a clear top wide receiver or select the remaining tier of running backs before you miss out.
Looking at our Dominator board, it's tempting and suggested to take A.J. Brown. As Footballguys consensus No. 7 wide receiver, it gives us a top option at the position. Joe Mixon is the highest-ranked running back available; a rare chance to still end up with a top-12 running back after choosing against the position in the first.
An intriguing detour is a concept called "Bully TE." With Darren Waller on the board, a manager would eschew their traditional early running back / wide receiver and select Waller, slotting him into their flex position. The move makes an already shallow position even more of a problem for the rest of your league. Waller's production on a per-game basis was nearly equal to A.J. Brown and Nick Chubb, hypothetically placing him at rank 8 for both wide receivers and running backs.
Darren Waller's positional advantage and previous production make him a first-round value routinely available in round two. Therefore, as an exercise in team building, he is my selection in this spot.
In the third, running back value dives off a cliff, with DAndre Swift the best choice. However, wide receiver depth is still ample, with Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, and Mike Evans on the board.
Another check-in with the staff on value in this range:
"From Round 2 on, your previous pick will likely dictate your following selection. If you went Kelce or wide receiver, you have to decide early on if you are committing to Zero-RB or if you start to add the mid-tier backs in Rounds 2 & 3." -Ryan Weisse
"The other reason I prefer this area is the fact you never go long stretches without a selection. Always being in the middle means you always have the shortest average time between picks." -Dominick Petrillo
"You don't want to reach for a guy who may or may not be a stud; you want the running back with 275 touches locked down, the pass-catcher who will see 130+ targets." -Sam Wagman
Climbing The Board
As Mario continues to climb up the castle toward the end goal, the pitfalls continue to grow. Continuing through a draft puts risk-reward at the forefront of each decision. Players with (hopeful) guaranteed production, but natural ceilings weigh against uncertainty. This area is key to draft success, still building in foundational pieces and shoring up weaknesses.
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Our Draft Dominator presents an exciting game theory conversation. Most recognize a top tier of five elite quarterbacks. In Part 1 of the series, I highlighted the ability to build strength relative to the league at running back, quarterback, and tight end. Since our previous pick, Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray came off the board.
Drafting from the middle, the ability to continue a run exists. After seeing three out of five options leave, with five teams having two chances to pick before the next choice, it is a safe bet this will be the final chance to grab an elite quarterback. The fourth round feels early to take these elite quarterbacks, and plenty of conflicting research on the topic exists, but in this draft, running back has already seen a drop-off and wide receiver is very deep. So, let us continue this unique roster build and select Lamar Jackson for the means of science.
Just as we suspected, Dak Prescott went off the board, and as a bonus, Justin Herbert went as well. In a 12 team league, after securing positions like quarterback and tight end early, the remaining goal is filling running back and wide receiver, identifying value at each position while keeping scarcity in mind. With our pick in the fifth round, the best deal is Adam Thielen, great value as the 40th overall player in Footballguys Top 300 Players.
A final word from the staff on strategy at this point:
"This debate continues until about Round 5; then, it's the best player available from there on out. One of my favorite things about drafting from the middle is that it sets up drafting your QB late. With fewer slots between your picks, it's easier to judge when you have reached the danger zone and must add your last viable quarterback." -Ryan Weisse
"Rounds 6-10 are typically the most critical rounds in a redraft draft. As important as the beginning five rounds are, it is easy enough to get your studs early. You have to weigh production versus ceiling in the middle rounds and get the correct value on a pick." -Sam Wagman
The Final Picture
I closed out the simulation targeting young players like Travis Etienne, who I highlighted previously, and young wide receivers like Darnell Mooney and Elijah Moore. The upside is always essential to chase late in drafts; after starting this build in a non-traditional manner, taking players with the ability to outperform their ADP is key vastly.
Sam Wagman closes us out by backing this approach:
"These players aren't meant to be started weekly but are high upside bye week fill-ins or injury replacements that can grind steady points per game. For many years, league winners can be found in these rounds as injuries pile up, and these players get increased playing time and a chance to show their talents."
