We are going to help you get prepared to dominate your upcoming drafts scheduled for this weekend. To do so, we will take a look at the most up-to-date information and ADP possible with a focus on interpreting the latest news and notes to gain an edge in your drafts.
In recent years, the Underdog daily ADP updates have added a tremendous resource to our tool belts. We get almost instantaneous wisdom of the crowd feedback from thousands of sharp and dialed-in fantasy drafters. While the Underdog best ball ADP may not be directly applicable to your non-best ball league, the recent changes in draft stock in reaction to the latest news provide a treasure trove of information you can use to dominate your non-best ball drafts this weekend.
In this week’s article, we will talk about how each of the following news items should impact your draft strategy this weekend:
- Overreaction to Colts Injuries
- Rookies Making a Move
- Contextualizing the Latest Saints News
- Looking for Bargains in Philadelphia
- Raiders Depth Chart Insight
- How to Handle the Dak Prescott Injury Risk
It was all doom and gloom for the Colts for a couple of weeks there. Potentially serious injuries to key players like Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson led to many believing this offense could be a train wreck. After some initial drops in ADP, the Colts key pieces have continued to slide over the last week:
- Parris Campbell has dropped 12 spots to 162
- T.Y. Hilton has dropped 9 spots to 158
- Michael Pittman Jr has dropped 7 spots to 108
- Jonathan Taylor has dropped 3 spots to 17
The interesting piece is that the news has all been positive of late. The timing of these injuries may end up working out perfectly for the Colts, with nearly all key players now looking to have a great chance to be available by Week 1.
Good vibes all around @Colts.— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) August 11, 2021
Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger are competing for the backup role.
Yes, the backup role.
Carson Wentz trending to open the season as the starter with All-Pro G Quenton Nelson on same path after foot surgeries.
The Colts open season vs. Seahawks.
If you are drafting this weekend, buy the dip on these Colts starters. These ADPs should all rise between now and September, so take advantage of your early draft date to roster some Colts at a deep discount.
Terrace Marshall Jr’s ADP has risen seven spots to 129th. He is locked into a starting spot in the slot and looks like a potential draft steal for Carolina. He is far and away the best value amongst Panthers receivers and the guy to target in your drafts this weekend if you buy into Sam Darnold having a bounce-back season.
Elijah Moore has consistently been mentioned as the Jets' best offensive player this offseason. He is going to force his way into the starting lineup. Unfortunately, the reviews on fellow rookie Zach Wilson have not been nearly as positive. However, Wilson may perform similarly to a young Jameis Winston, making plenty of head-scratching turnovers but supporting big fantasy numbers for his playmakers through his aggressiveness. Moore's progress may have hit a speed bump due to a quad injury suffered on Thursday, however. Proceed with caution if you are drafting this weekend and make sure to check the latest on the MRI results.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has finally leapfrogged Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams to become the highest-drafted Lions wide receiver at 168th overall. This change was long past overdue based upon camp reports. The similarities between St. Brown’s situation and that of Cooper Kupp when he was a rookie and put up 62-869-5 are uncanny. He is an ideal late-round target and is only going to see his ADP rise between now and Week 1.
Kadarius Toney is a prime 18th-round draft target (ADP of 206). Sure, the Giants offense will probably struggle, and the skill position competition for targets looks deep on paper. However, talent creates opportunity, and Toney’s uncanny playmaking ability is worth betting on at this absurdly low ADP.
I said to someone at Giants practice today that, after all the extra “stuff” that followed Kadarius Toney to camp, once he’s gotten out there, he has looked more and more comfortable. You can see the improvements and polish session to session. It sets up well as NYG move forward.— Art Stapleton (@art_stapleton) August 10, 2021
Processing Saints news
Marquez Callaway is the biggest riser of the week, moving up from 180th to 153rd overall. Expect his ADP to continue to rise with each positive training camp report.
Saints WR Marquez Callaway has come so far since he was an undrafted roster hopeful last year that I’m watching him return kicks as usual and actually wondering if he might be too valuable to the offense to be a return option… He really has impressed as a potential WR 1/2 so far— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) August 6, 2021
One reason Callaway is likely still undervalued is that many assume that Michael Thomas will be back relatively soon. Does anything about this Thomas situation indicate he is likely to rush back into action?
The health situation for Thomas by itself is worrying. This is a legitimate four-month timeframe for recovery. Furthermore, it is an injury where the player is unlikely to hit the ground running once returning. Beyond the specifics of the injury, this whole situation has the potential to get uglier. If we get to midseason and the Saints are well behind the Buccaneers in the standings, and the Saints-Thomas relationship has not thawed, it is easy to envision scenarios where Thomas’ absence extends even further.
When you factor in the potential that it could just be Callaway, TreQuan Smith, and Deonte Harris leading the charge for most (or even all) of the season, you have some prime late-round sleeper candidates. If you are drafting this weekend, highlight Callaway’s name on your cheatsheet, and don’t be afraid to reach a bit above his current ADP to draft him.
The Eagles key offensive weapons have all dropped in the past week:
- Jalen Hurts down 9 to 108
- Jalen Reagor down 8 to 137
- Miles Sanders down 6 to 52
- Dallas Goedert down 5 to 101
- DeVonta Smith down 4 to 77
It makes some sense that Hurts would slide slightly, given there is still some small chance that Deshaun Watson ends up in Philadelphia at some point. However, with his obvious rushing upside, this does present a chance to get him at a point where he is a nice value. DeVonta Smith also looks like a potential value target. Early reports from camp had Smith as the clear alpha amongst the wide receivers, and his injury does not appear to be all that serious.
Coming into the week, John Brown and Bryan Edwards had nearly identical ADPs. Over the last week, Brown has dropped 12 spots to 165 while Edwards has risen 12 spots to 140. The market is reading this situation correctly. In fact, expect both ADP trends to continue. Edwards is going to be a trendy sleeper the closer we get to the season. If you are drafting this weekend, you can still get Edwards later than he should be going, but you may have to grab him in the 130s to be sure.
Multiple factors have driven Edwards’ rise. First, he is clearly running with the starters, and an expected competition between him and Brown looks to be over before it started. Second, you have the early camp hype building and Edwards making plays. In a recent interview with the NFL Network, Gruden compared Edwards to Hall of Fame wide receiver Terrell Owens and mentioned that Edwards “looks” like a No. 1 receiver now and that he has been impressed with his play during camp.
Bryan Edwards is "consistently" running with #Raiders' starting offense next to Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow, John Brown with the twos with Zay Jones and Willie Snead IV: https://t.co/p2xheHdfEM— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) August 7, 2021
Another key takeaway from early in Raiders camp… the demise of Josh Jacobs has been greatly exaggerated. This is still an offense built around Jacobs and Darren Waller, so if others chase the shiny new objects (e.g., Travis Etienne) and let Jacobs slide further than he should, he is a prime low-priced RB2 target.
Break Ties Against Cowboys
If you are drafting this weekend, you know that properly pricing in injury risks a month before the season starts is difficult. In fact, it is why most will wait until closer to the season to draft. However, whether you are participating in best ball drafts or your league is an outlier that decides to draft early, this is a factor you must deal with.
What are to make of the strangely-worded Cowboys tweet about Dak Prescott going in for a second MRI?
Opinions are mixed as to whether this is next to nothing or something to be very concerned about. It makes sense to limit your potential downside if you can do so without limiting your upside. In this case, it makes sense to temporarily drop the Cowboys' key offensive pieces to the bottom of their current tier. If you have Amari Cooper and Mike Evans in the same tier, bump Evans ahead in your rankings until we have more clarity on what is going on with Prescott. However, the advice is not to drop Cowboys players down out of their current tiers entirely. But keep an eye on the latest with Prescott and check-in right before your draft starts to see if anything has changed.
Other News and Notes
- Early struggles in camp for Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing offense drew blaring national headlines and have led to Burrow's ADP dropping a round or more. Over the last few days, he has reportedly turned it around and looks like what we would have expected.
- Marvin Jones Jr is seeing his ADP tick up but remains an obvious value who should be going alongside D.J. Chark Jr and closer to Laviska Shenault Jr in drafts.
The public is drafting Marvin Jones Jr as if he's the distant third WR on the Jaguars (WR57).— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 8, 2021
Fix that! Marv could be the most productive Jacksonville WR this season#Duval ðŸŸ¢ðŸ”µhttps://t.co/pCH1WOVXbA