Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, we simply find the combination of player props we are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
Week 1 Review
Season Total (+1) Each week, we will start with a quick review of how things went the previous week. We came out only narrowly ahead in Week 1 (+1 units) despite hitting 70% of our individual props. We split three of the props and won the other two.
- 5: (-1) We had a split, hitting just one of the two we needed. Antonio Brown blew past 58.5 receiving yards but Michael Gallup did not get more than 51.5, in part due to an injury that landed him on injured reserve.
- 4: (-1) We had another split here. Brandin Cooks had more than 14.5 points on 5 catches for 132 yards. James Robinson managed just 8.4 fantasy points in a surprisingly awful first game for the Jaguars.
- 3: (+2) Damien Harris had 100 rushing yards (29.5 more than needed) and Myles Gaskin had 49 rushing yards (4.5 more than needed).
- 2: (-1) Our third split of the week. David Montgomery easily went for more than 63.5 rushing yards (108) but we narrowly missed Darrell Henderson less than 61.5, as he rushed for 70 yards.
- 1: (+2) Lamar Jackson had 86 rushing yards, 36.5 more than we needed. We had the under on Kenyan Drake rushing yards (31) and he did not get close with just 11 rushing yards.
5: Rooting for Touchdowns
- The combined touchdown prop on requires your selected group of players to score more than your goal number of touchdowns. Here, we are going for the lowest level. We need over 1.5 touchdowns from our group to double up.
- Antonio Gibson is a great bet to score a touchdown. He has 11 touchdowns in 15 career starts. The consensus projections from Footballguys have Gibson with 0.74 touchdowns. By himself, he gets us halfway to our goal and there is a realistic chance that he scores two touchdowns and we do not even need the other two guys to do anything.
- The Football Team and the Giants combined to allow 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game last season. By rostering both the starting running backs in this game, we are picking up most of that rushing touchdown expectation.
Saquon Barkley (knee) listed as questionable.— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz) September 15, 2021
Question isn’t if he plays or not, but how much and how effectively?
- While Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable, he is expected to play. He is unlikely to see his normal workload as he works his way back from the knee injury. However, the Giants falling to 0-2 and losing a tie-breaker to a division rival would be devastating for any playoff hopes. Washington needs this game.
- Logan Thomas emerged midway through the 2020 season as one of Washington’s go-to offensive weapons. In his last seven games, Thomas has scored four touchdowns. More importantly, he racked up 57 targets (8.1 per game) over that stretch.
4: Star Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott MORE than 305.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert MORE than 300.5 passing yards
- We get a strong correlation play here. This is a game expected to be a shootout (54.5 over/under). If this game goes over, it is likely because the two quarterbacks put up big passing numbers.
- Over his last 14 games, Dak Prescott has averaged a ridiculous 341.5 passing yards per game. Over this stretch, he had 330+ passing yards in 8-of-14 games.
- Justin Herbert has thrown for over 300.5 passing yards in 9-of-16 career starts.
- This is an especially juicy matchup for Herbert. We saw Dallas give up 379 yards to Tom Brady last week. That was with their star pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence, in the lineup. Lawrence is out with a broken foot. Randy Gregory is also out due to COVID. Herbert should have all day in the pocket to pick apart a shaky Dallas secondary.
Cowboys will have no proven pass rushers on Sunday without DLaw & Randy Gregory. The other 5 DEs on this roster _ Bradley Anae, Dorrance Armstrong, Tarell Basham, Chauncey Golston and Azur Kamara _ have combined for 10 sacks. Basham has 7.5 of those— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) September 16, 2021
3: Hurts for Real?
- The big attraction here is getting Jalen Hurts versus Jimmy Garoppolo in fantasy points. I absolutely love getting Hurts and his rushing upside over Garoppolo while only giving 2.5 fantasy points.
- Hurts looks like the real deal. The parallels between 2021 Hurts and 2019 Lamar Jackson (when he won MVP) are uncanny. Both were drafted in the same general range and took over as the starter midway through their rookie year. Both came out and had a huge Week 1 performance.
When you factor out Week 17 against Washington last year (Hurts hit the bench early), Jalen Hurts' numbers over his last 4 starts are insane.— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 15, 2021
277.8 passing yards per game
73.8 rushing yards per game
Fantasy points: 27.46 (good for QB5 last year)
- Footballguys consensus projections love Hurts (21.4 points) compared to Jimmy Garoppolo (15.7). That 5.7 point gap would mean we are getting 3.2 fantasy points worth of value on Hurts.
- One of the things that may not be fully factored in for Garoppolo is the fact that he is losing goal line snaps to Trey Lance. This is a big negative for Garoppolo’s touchdown expectation.
- The George Kittle versus Deebo Samuel half of this is much tougher. Footballguys consensus has Deebo Samuel projected for 15.1 points and George Kittle for 14.4. With us getting 0.5 points on the Kittle side, this is essentially a coin flip in terms of value. Thus, we will go with the gut feeling that Kyle Shanahan is going to have to manage egos at wide receiver and will make more of an effort to spread the ball around there this week as opposed to feeding Samuel again.
2: Betting on Burrow and Fields
Joe Burrow MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
Andy Dalton LESS than 17.5 fantasy points
- The key aspect of this prop is a belief in Joe Burrow emerging as one of the league’s best quarterbacks in his second season. Any time we get Burrow under 20 fantasy points, we will be on the MORE side until further notice.
- The Bears defense is solid but has been vulnerable against good passing offenses. We saw this just last week when Matthew Stafford threw for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 26 passing attempts.
- Andy Dalton managed just 6.5 fantasy points last weekend. He has topped 17.5 fantasy points just three times in his last 10 starts.
- As with the Jimmy Garoppolo prop above, we are getting some value because it does not seem like those setting the line are adjusting for the likelihood that the starting quarterback could be replaced down around the goal line. Last week, Justin Fields ran in a short touchdown and also completed both of his passing attempts in the red zone. If Fields is stealing most of the touchdown opportunities, how does Dalton get to 17.5 fantasy points?
- This is also a sneaky correlation play despite the fact we are going against the typical correlation of both quarterbacks going over. Here is the thinking. If Burrow comes out and has a big first half and the Bears are trailing, the odds increase that Dalton is benched for Fields. We know it is coming at some point soon.
1: Touchdown Value
- This is the best prop of the week. We get three players who have shown they have massive weekly touchdown expectations and we only need two touchdowns total from the group.
- We project Davante Adams for 0.86 touchdowns, Aaron Jones for .77 touchdowns, and D'Andre Swift for .53 touchdowns. All told, we project the trio for a combined 2.16 touchdowns. We are getting 0.66 touchdowns of value on this prop, which is a huge number relatively speaking.
- These are three proven touchdown scorers who were each amongst the league leaders in touchdowns last season.
- Over the last three-plus seasons, Adams has scored 36 touchdowns in 42 games.
- Since 2019, Aaron Jones has scored 30 touchdowns in 31 games.
- D'Andre Swift has 11 touchdowns in 14 career games.
- Davante Adams should feast against an undermanned and untalented Detroit secondary that just lost Jeff Okudah for the season.
With Okudah out, the depth CBs on the team are:— John Whiticar (@Whiticar) September 13, 2021
1) Ifeatu Melifonwu - a project 3rd round rookie
2) Jerry Jacobs - a UDFA
3) Bobby Price - 2nd year UDFA converted from safety
4) Nickell Robey-Coleman - mainly a nickel corner
5) Parnell Motley - he plays football I think
- After an awful Week 1, expect the Packers to get back on track at home against a bad Lions team. In two games against Detroit last season, the Packers scored nine touchdowns.