Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 18 Review
- Last Week: -1
- Season Total: +7.6
A foot injury to Taysom Hill was the only thing between us and another winning week. We will look to get back on track in the playoffs.
Week 18 Picks
5: Saturday Night Sleeper (0):
Jalen Hurts was inactive so this one was canceled. We were hoping to get one half from him and still hit the under on passing yards.
4: Bills-Jets Yards: (-1)
We were on the wrong side of his one. Both quarterbacks went under.
3: Passing Overs in NO: (-1)
We had some bad luck here. Matt Ryan threw for more than 20 yards more than we needed. Taysom Hill threw for over 100 yards before the end of the first half before suffering a foot injury that knocked him out of the game.
2: Passing Correlation in Baltimore: (+2)
1: Rams-49ers TDs (-1)
5: Bengals-Raiders TDs
- We have a healthy 49-point total in this game and a pair of teams with very concentrated touchdown scoring this season. We know who the go-to scorers are for both teams, making this an especially attractive spot to target for our touchdown props.
- Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs ranked 4th and 8th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
- Mixon averaged an even 1.0 touchdown per game in the 2021 season and was especially hot down the stretch. Mixon had multiple touchdowns in 5-of-9 games to end the season.
- One of those multiple touchdown games came against the Raiders in Week 10, when Mixon carried it a season-high 30 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- Las Vegas has allowed 23 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, third-most in the NFL behind only the Jets and Lions.
- Jacobs has seen his usage ratcheted up in a big way down the stretch of the season. Over the final three weeks, he averaged 23 carries and 3.0 targets per game.
- Ja'Marr Chase has quickly emerged as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He finished his rookie season with 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow talking about Cincinnati’s group of “athletic freak shows” that includes the WR trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd.— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) January 11, 2022
Burrow: “I’ll take every single one of them over anybody in the league.” pic.twitter.com/IVBNhZDOc2
- The last time we saw Chase in a playoff game, he lit up a great Clemson defense for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.
4: Betting on Brady
- We get a strong correlation play here with a guess we get somewhat of a shootout here. For Brady especially, there has been a strong correlation between his passing yards and the opposing quarterbacks. When Tampa Bay’s opponent has put big points on the board, Brady has typically responded.
- While Brady will be without two of his key weapons (Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin), he has shown over the last six quarter of action that he can still produce without them. After Brown’s sideline blowup in the third quarter of the Week 17 game, Brady caught fire and threw for 410 total yards against the Jets. Last week, Brady threw for 326 yards in just over three quarters against the Panthers.
- This is a bit of a narrative angle but Brady has to be looking at the recent comments from Brown and feeling extra motivation to go out and perform in the playoffs without him.
- The Buccaneers have also been beaten up at running back. While Leonard Fournette is expected back, he may not step right into his full workload after missing the past month.
- In the last decade, Brady has had 14 playoff games with 300-plus passing yards.
- Hurts has put up big numbers when the Eagles have found themselves in shootouts. In three games this season where the opponent scored 30-plus points, Hurts averaged 316.3 passing yards per game. As far as correlation plays go, if Brady has a big game we should feel good about Hurts’ chances of at least topping 210 passing yards.
- Since the Week 12 ankle injury, Hurts has been running much less. In the three games since he returned, he has averaged 5.7 carries per game In the three weeks prior to the injury, he was averaging 13.7 carries per game.
3: Cardinals-Rams TDs
- We get two of the most prolific touchdown scorers in the NFL in the same matchup, making this a perfect target for one of our over 2.5 touchdown props. We won on this exact same prop when the two teams matched up in Week 14.
- James Conner scored 18 touchdowns (3rd-most) and did so in just 15 games. In terms of touchdowns per game, he was actually second in the NFL behind only Austin Ekeler this season.
- In two matchups this season against the Rams, Conner scored four touchdowns.
- Cooper Kupp scored 16 touchdowns (tied for 4th-most) in 17 games.
- Kupp had 13 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown when these two teams played in December.
"It's going to be a group effort trying to slow him down, but you know he's going to get his."— xz - Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 13, 2022
Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury on Cooper Kupp + facing the Rams for a third time. â¤µï¸
- The Conner-Kupp pairing is averaging more than 2.0 touchdowns per game between the two of them. Considering we are getting a chance to 4X our money and we get to add a third player, this is an extremely plus-EV proposition.
- Sony Michel makes for a quite strong third option given his usage since taking over as the lead back. Even with Cam Akers back in the lineup, Michel played 80% of the snaps last week. He has played almost exactly 90% of the offensive snaps for the Rams since Week 13.
- Michel has 29 red zone carries in just the last six weeks (4.9 red zone carries per game).
- Note: Keep an eye on the news on Monday and wait to lock this one in to make sure Conner is good to go. He is dealing with a minor injury but should be fine to play his normal role.
2: Cowboys-49ers TDs
- This game stands out as a candidate for our favorite touchdown prop given it is the highest total game on the slate this weekend (51-point total).
- On the Cowboys side, Ezekiel Elliott is coming off of an 18-carry, 3-target game in Week 18. Given the game was relatively meaningless and the Eagles were in control, his usage was encouraging in terms of what it says about his health heading into the playoffs.
- It feels like the Cowboys managed Elliott’s workload in part due to the knee injury and in part because they wanted him at his best for the playoffs.
- Deebo Samuel is perfect for these sorts of props because he has so many ways to get there. In addition to scoring six rushing touchdowns, he also scored eight rushing touchdowns. That is the most rushing scores in NFL history for a player who primarily played wide receiver.
Deebo Samuel ended the regular season of the NFL with a memorable performance.— Dynasty Nerds ðŸ¤“ (@DynastyNerds) January 13, 2022
Stats vs the #Rams:
43 Yard Long
16 Yard Long
â¬‡ï¸Every Touch vs LAâ¬‡ï¸#49ers pic.twitter.com/OmfLipv7EX
- The Footballguys consensus projection for Samuel is 0.41 rushing touchdowns and 0.41 receiving touchdowns. Either number alone is unimpressive but the combined total is one of the highest on the slate.
- Elijah Mitchell has been a true workhorse back for the 49ers when healthy. He has had at least 21 carries in each of his last five games. He has earned lockerroom respect for playing through injuries and is establishing himself as a key player for the organization moving forward.
- Mitchell only scored three touchdowns in those five games but his usage hints at the potential for even better scoring production. He had multiple red-zone touches in each of the five games and nine total touches from inside the 10-yard line.
1: Hot Hands in NE-BUF
- Both Jakobi Meyers and Devin Singletary have been hot of late and have emerged as especially key pieces of their offenses entering the playoffs.
- Singletary has scored at least 14.9 fantasy points in five straight games.
- His hot streak has coincided with an increase in playing time.
#Bills RB Devin Singletary:— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) January 11, 2022
1st 12 games
-408 total snaps
-Only 1 game with more than 60 snaps
-34 snaps/game average
Last 5 games
-306 total snaps
-4 games with more than 60 snaps
-61 snaps/game average #BillsMafia #GoBills
- In the first 13 games of the season, Singletary never played more than 75% of the snaps and only played over half the snaps four times. He has played over 75% of the snaps in four of the last five weeks.
- Since Week 14, his snaps counts have been: 82%, 93%, 68%, 80%, and 76%.
Brian Daboll on Devin Singletary: "He's earned the amount of playing time and touches that he's gotten based on his results. I never lacked confidence in Motor early on in his career. I just think he's earned this opportunity and he's done a good job with it."— Heather Prusak (@haprusak) January 10, 2022
- Jakobi Meyers has topped 9.5 fantasy points in four straight games and in 12-of-17 games this season.
- He has averaged over 80% of the snaps through the last four games and has five red zone targets over that stretch.