Cracking DraftKings Week 12

Favorite Games

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns - Over/Under 42.5
• Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 47.5
• Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 47.5
• Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 43.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans - Over/Under 42.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Chiefs at home vs. the Rams - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Dolphins at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 29.75
• 49ers at home vs. the Saints - Implied Team Total 26.5
• Jets at home vs. the Bears - Implied Team Total 22.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes II is cruising toward the MVP award this season. He ranks first in both passing yards per game (326.5) and pass touchdowns per game (2.8) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks first in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), third in Success Rate, first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). The Chiefs are 15.5-point favorites at home against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Joe Burrow is a total baller and reportedly will get his alpha wide receiver, JaMarr Chase, back in this one. Burrow ranks fourth in passing yards per game (289) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play, 12th in Success Rate, third in PROE, and third in EDPF. Burrow's price is solid in cash despite a matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 11th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid cash option surrounded by elite talent all over the offense. Garoppolo ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a 49ers offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate. He has an awesome matchup at home against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Success Rate, and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

It's shocking to see Ken Walker priced at only $6,900 by Draftkings. In the five games since Rashaad Penny was lost for the season, Walker is averaging 23 opportunities per game. That workload would rank third in the NFL if extrapolated over the full season. And although the Raiders defense does rank fifth in Rush EPA Allowed, they also rank dead last in EPA/Play Allowed overall and 29th in Success Rate. Walker gets to attack a bad defense while playing at home.

Derrick Henry ranks second in opportunities per game (25.3), first in total yards per game (120.9), and fifth in touchdowns per game (1). He continues to be a dominant force and gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.

*Josh Jacobs popped up on the injury report on Friday with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable.* Jacobs has been one of the best fantasy storylines of the 2022 season. Jacobs ranks fourth in opportunities per game (22.4), second in total yards per game (118.1), and 20th in touchdowns per game (0.7). He gets to play in the game with the second-highest Over/Under (47.5) on the weekend against a Seahawks defense that has been serviceable, but that certainly be had. Seattle ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed, ninth in Success Rate, and 13th in Rush EPA Allowed.

In just his second game with the Dolphins, Jeff Wilson played on 61% of the offensive snaps and turned 22 total opportunities into 143 total yards and 1 touchdown in Week 10 prior to Miami's Week 11 bye. Mike McDaniel wasted no time not only incorporating Wilson into the offense but making him the #1 option in the backfield as well. And now, Raheem Mostert is doubtful due to a knee injury. Wilson is priced at just $5,900 and gets to play at home against a Texans defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Success Rate, and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.

With Joe Mixon out, Samaje Perine is the starting running back tied to Joe Burrow and is priced at just $5,600. It's important to note Chris Evans was out last week and will return on Sunday but Evans has only played on 12 offensive snaps all season so we shouldn't be aggressive at all with his playing time projection. That leaves Perine to handle the majority of the workload against a tough Titans defense. Still. Perine is a dual-threat running back who is coming off a game where he caught three touchdown passes.

Javonte Williams is out for the season, Melvin Gordon is no longer on the team, and Mike Boone is on short-term injured reserve. It's been a weird way to get here but alas, Latavius Murray is now the bell cow running back for the Broncos. Murray costs just $5,000, which is a solid price for a player who should touch the ball at least 15 times. The matchup is pretty neutral against a Panthers defense that ranks 12th in EPA/Play Allowed, 14th in Success Rate, and seventh in Rush EPA Allowed.

Travis Etienne is averaging 23.7 opportunities per game in three contests since James Robinson was traded to the Jets. That workload would rank third in the NFL if extrapolated over the full season. Etienne brings guaranteed volume into a home matchup with a Ravens defense that ranks 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ranks fifth in targets per game (10.6) and first in receiving yards per game (114.8). With the Dolphins projecting to continue to be a pass-happy offense. Hill’s ceiling is as high as anyone on this slate. But Jaylen Waddle’s DraftKings salary continues to be much cheaper which is a bit baffling. Waddle has been awesome in his own right. Waddle ranks seventh in receiving yards per game (87.8) despite only ranking 27^th in targets per game (7.5). Waddle has also scored two more touchdowns than Hill so far. Both are in great spots at home against a Texans defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Success Rate, and 30th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And the Texans will be without cornerback Derrek Stingley as well.

The Raiders at Seahawks game has the second highest Over/Under (47.5) on the weekend and Davante Adams has a favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18^th in EPA/Play Allowed and 19^th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow continue to be on injured reserve so Adams will continue to be the clear alpha in the receiving game with no close second. Adams ranks second in targets per game (11.2), 11^th in receptions per game (6.4), fifth in receiving yards per game (92.5), and second in receiving touchdowns (10).

The Chargers at Cardinals game has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the weekend and DeAndre Hopkins has been funneled targets since his return from suspension. Hopkins leads the NFL in targets per game (11.6) and catches per game (9) and also ranks fourth in receiving yards per game (97.4). He’ll take aim at a beatable Chargers defense that ranks 19^th in EPA/Play Allowed, 24^th in Success Rate, and 16^th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Christian Kirk has been a revelation as Trevor Lawrence’s #1 wide receiver this season. Kirk ranks 18^th in targets per game (8.2), 21^st in receptions per game (5.2), 20^th in receiving yards per game (67.9), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (7). Kirk gets to play at home in a game he’ll be needed against a strong Ravens team. Baltimore’s defense will make it tough for Kirk as they rank tenth in EPA/Play Allowed, 12^th in Success Rate, and eighth in Dropback EPA Allowed. But Kirk's $6,500 salary is solid, especially in cash.

It's surprising to see Amari Cooper's price tag at only $6,400. Cooper ranks 19th in targets per game (8.1), 29th in receptions per game (5), 17th in receiving yards per game (69.8), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (7). Cooper historically plays better at home where this one will be played and he'll be needed if the Browns hope to keep pace with a well-rested Tom Brady. And this is Jacoby Brissett's last game as the starter before Deshaun Watson returns so Cooper's quarterback will have added motivation in this one.

Tight Ends

Deebo Samuel likely plays on Sunday but he is listed as questionable and that could provide a small boost to George Kittle's target share. That's solid because Kittle is already in a good position at home against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Success Rate, and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. And Kittle is coming off a game in which he reminded the world just how sexy his upside is by catching 4 of 6 targets for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are both out once again, which means Greg Dulcich will be relied upon as a receiver on Sunday. Dulcich played on 83% of the offensive snaps and ran a route on 86% of the dropbacks last week. You're essentially rostering a full-time receiver at only $3,700 when you click on Dulcich.

Team Defenses

Justin Fields is questionable and the Bears have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (16.25) on the weekend. The Jets get to play at home and have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford won't play this week and Bryce Perkins is expected to start for the Rams. The Chiefs cost just $2,800 and get to play at home as 15.5-point favorites. The Rams have the lowest Implied Team Total (13.5) on the entire weekend.

GPPs

Quarterbacks