Cracking DraftKings Week 12

Photo: Jim Brown, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns - Over/Under 42.5
• Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 47.5
• Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals - Over/Under 47.5
• Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 43.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans - Over/Under 42.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Chiefs at home vs. the Rams - Implied Team Total 29.25
• Dolphins at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 29.75
• 49ers at home vs. the Saints - Implied Team Total 26.5
• Jets at home vs. the Bears - Implied Team Total 22.5

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes II is cruising toward the MVP award this season. He ranks first in both passing yards per game (326.5) and pass touchdowns per game (2.8) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks first in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), third in Success Rate, first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF). The Chiefs are 15.5-point favorites at home against a Rams defense that ranks 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Joe Burrow is a total baller and reportedly will get his alpha wide receiver, Ja'Marr Chase, back in this one. Burrow ranks fourth in passing yards per game (289) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks seventh in EPA/Play, 12th in Success Rate, third in PROE, and third in EDPF. Burrow's price is solid in cash despite a matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 11th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid cash option surrounded by elite talent all over the offense. Garoppolo ranks sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.7) and leads a 49ers offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate. He has an awesome matchup at home against a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Success Rate, and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

It's shocking to see Ken Walker III priced at only $6,900 by Draftkings. In the five games since Rashaad Penny was lost for the season, Walker is averaging 23 opportunities per game. That workload would rank third in the NFL if extrapolated over the full season. And although the Raiders defense does rank fifth in Rush EPA Allowed, they also rank dead last in EPA/Play Allowed overall and 29th in Success Rate. Walker gets to attack a bad defense while playing at home.

Derrick Henry ranks second in opportunities per game (25.3), first in total yards per game (120.9), and fifth in touchdowns per game (1). He continues to be a dominant force and gets to play at home against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in Rush EPA Allowed.