Unlock More Content Like This With a Footballguys Premium Subscription
"FBG is the best fantasy football advisory service anywhere."
Nigel Eccles, Co-Founder, FanDuel
- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 48.5
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 49.5
- Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 51.5
- New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 44.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 42.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- Eagles at home vs. the Steelers - Implied Team Total 27
- Cowboys at home vs. the Bears - Implied Team Total 26
|1||Geno Smith||vs. Giants||$5,800|
|2||Sam Ehlinger||vs. Commanders||$4,000|
|3||Justin Fields||at Cowboys||$5,200|
Geno Smith has been one of the best stories of the 2022 season. He's leading a Seahawks offense that ranks fourth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), fifth in Success Rate, sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and sixth in Early Down Pass Frequency Rate (EDPF). He gets to play at home in a great matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed, 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 25th in Success Rate. It's crazy that DraftKings continues to price Smith so affordably.
Sam Ehlinger is a mobile quarterback, and he's priced at the bare minimum of $4,000. His price tag opens up salary to jam in all the studs at other positions, which is a huge luxury. He also gets to play at home against a Commanders defense that isn't impressive. The matchup is favorable as the Commanders rank 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.
The Bears are utilizing Justin Fields more as a rusher, which makes him a viable play at $5,200 in cash. Fields has run 26 times for 170 total yards and 1 touchdown over the past two weeks. But there is no way around it, the matchup is not favorable against a good Cowboys defense with the game in Dallas.
|1||Ken Walker||vs. Giants||$6,500|
|2||Tony Pollard||vs. Bears||$6,100|
|3||Raheem Mostert||at Lions||$5,900|
|4||Derrick Henry||at Texans||$8,400|
|5||Saquon Barkley||at Seahawks||$8,100|
|6||Josh Jacobs||at Saints||$7,500|
Ken Walker season is upon us, friends. Walker has averaged 23.5 opportunities over the past two games without Rashaad Penny, and that workload would rank third in the league if applied to the first seven weeks. Walker also gets to play at home against a Giants defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed, 28th in Rush EPA Allowed, and 25th in Success Rate. Meanwhile, DraftKings has been slow to adjust. Walker is shockingly still priced at only $6,500 when he should be closer to $8,000.
We have seen one game with Ezekiel Elliott out and Tony Pollard in a workhorse role. Back in Week 15 of 2020, Pollard played on 90% of the offensive snaps and turned 21 total opportunities into 132 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Pollard is talented and ready to take advantage of this fantastic matchup at home against a Bears defense that ranks 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Rush EPA Allowed, and 22nd in Success Rate. If DraftKings priced Pollard after Elliott was ruled out, he would be close to $7,500. Enjoy the discount.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE