All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week.
To finish in the top 1% of the field, your lineup must be a unique paring of correlation, quality one-offs, and low ownership. We'd all be millionaires if it were as simple as playing the highest projected lineup with the lowest projected ownership.
The first step in the process is identifying the roster construction the field will likely land on so you know where you need to pivot.
With only one game total projected over 50 points expect roster percentage to be far less condensed this week. Matthew Stafford ($6,300 / 12%) is leading the way as the slate’s only quarterback projected above 10%. Next up we have Derek Carr ($6,200 / 8.4%) and Tom Brady ($6,400 / 7.5%). Since no shootouts are guiding the field’s quarterback exposure, it appears as though the natural reaction has been to spend down for quarterbacks with high team totals.
The three highest projected quarterbacks on the slate are also the three most expensive, being Lamar Jackson ($7,400 / 5.8%), Kyler Murray ($7,500 / 7.3%), and Russell Wilson ($7,200 / 6.3%). None of these options offer much in the way of added value over their less expensive counterparts due to their price disparity. We can instead take a look at some of the opposing quarterbacks who may benefit from playing catch up to these more popular options.
On a normal slate, we may not be excited to talk about Tua Tagovailoa ($5,600 / 2.3%), Marcus Mariota ($5,600 / 3.2%), or Jameis Winston ($5,500 / 3.8%), but without many options standing out, quarterback provides a unique opportunity to pivot. All three of these options are playing in games against more popular quarterbacks that are being propped up by their team totals. While Tagovailoa, Mariota, and Winston are fine plays in their own rights, they have the bonus of benefiting from the success of the higher-rostered quarterbacks opposing them.
In Week 1 Tagovailoa attempted 33 passes and flirted with the 300-yard bonus, all in what would previously be a slow-paced slugfest with the New England Patriots. As football fans, we are oft prone to either overreacting or not reacting enough. The appropriate reaction to the Dolphin's performance in Week 1 would be to acknowledge that Mike McDaniel understands the strength of his offense lies in his receivers, so he is going to get them involved. The field will likely be a week late to the Tagovailoa party so this is one to punch an early ticket to.
One of the biggest questions of the off-season has been which Saints receiver we can trust. If Week 1 was any indication, the answer would be all three. Michael Thomas ($5,800 / 4% ) was targeted eight times and scored twice. Jarvis Landry ($5,000 / 4.4%) was targeted nine times for over 100 yards. Even the rookie Chris Olave($4,500 / 2.9%) received three targets and converted on a key 2-point conversion. Winston is being overlooked against his former team due to the presence of Brady, but he performed about as well as we could’ve hoped in his first live-action post-ACL tear. Pair Winston with two pass catcher and Leonard Fournette ($6,700 / 6.7%) for leverage over the more popular Buccaneers stacks.
Mariota is the toughest play to get to amongst the recommended options as his receivers seem limited at first glance. Though production seemed lacking, Drake London ($5,200 / 4.5%) and Kyle Pitts ($5,400 / 11.7%) both had respectable market shares with seven targets each. Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,000 / 5.7%) is also a viable stacking option as he received five targets to go along with his 100-yard rushing performance. In addition to Mariota’s 33 passing attempts, he rushed for 72 yards. His rushing floor alone puts him in play, but his condensed passing distribution makes him great for a cheap, low-rostered game stack.
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