Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Slate Overview- Bad Weather- Short Slate
This is a tough week, as we are in for another 10-game slate this week. Making matters worse is that there are only 3 games in which the temperature will be above 32 degrees, or the games will be in a dome. This leads to some games, that people are going to have major concerns about. The thing with weather is oftentimes people look at just the temperature and immediately write off the game and move on to the next one. However, studies have been done that show that from a total point perspective temperature has very little to no impact on the overall score of the game, while wind has a much larger impact on the total score of the game.
In games where there is a passing concern, it does not mean a complete fade of that game either, as the offensive output could transition to more rushing attempts, short passes to tight ends or running backs, or the defenses could also be in play.
Big Passing Concerns
· New Orleans at Cleveland: 25-30 MPH wind 8 degrees Over/Under 32 points
· Buffalo at Chicago: 20-25 MPH wind 6 degrees Over/Under 40.5
· Atlanta at Baltimore 15-20 MPH wind 12 degrees Over/Under 35 points
· Seattle at Kansas City 15 MPH wind 8 degrees Over/Under 49.5
· Detroit at Carolina 10 MPH wind 21 degrees Over/Under 43
· Cincinnati at New England 10-15 MPH wind 20 degrees Over/Under 41.5
· Houston at Tennessee 10MPH wind 20 degrees Over/Under 35 due to Malik Willis starting for Tennessee
Very Similar Builds This Week
In addition to the bad weather, there are some trends that are occurring this week that you should likely be aware of. With the injury to Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew will start at $4,800, and expect Minshew to get extremely popular by the time the game kicks off on Saturday. At the moment, Footballguys is projecting Minshew to be around 15% rostered, but this could easily climb up to 20%+ depending on the hype that he gets in the next 24 hours or so. It’s not just Minshew who will get looked at this week as there are a number of bad quarterbacks who are facing bad passing defenses. Sam Darnold, Davis Mills, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith are all facing four of the worst passing defenses in football as Tennessee, Detroit, and Minnesota are all in the top 5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
At the running back position, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey have separated themselves from the pack this week as the two elite options, and there is going to be an extremely popular build that has Gardner Minshew and both Henry and McCaffrey while going cheap at the wide receiver and tight end positions.
This is a week, where you need to ask yourself where you stand with the two elite running back options this week as that will drive everything. If you’re comfortable with a complete fade of both, you can do some exciting things such as a Vikings stack with Justin Jefferson in a good matchup, or spend up for Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce. Fading the running backs is going to be a tough task as they are both in elite matchups, but taking a stand against this common build could provide you some uniqueness that if one of those running backs fails, you will have significant leverage against your competition.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE