Cracking DraftKings Week 1

Sunday Morning Update:

Check back around 10AM EST for any updates to the Primary Cash Lineup or overall slate thoughts. 

What is Cracking DraftKings?

I’ve been doing this type of article dating back to 2017 on the FanDuel side, but for 2026, we’re adding it to DraftKings. Cracking DraftKings is a look into my personal playing style, specifically which lineups I’m personally playing for cash games and then will break-down and track the results. I’ve been playing DFS for 15 seasons dating back to 2011 even before DraftKings was in business.

I view the real value in these articles as an inside look into my personal process and lineup construction each week. While I’ve been a profitable player over the 15 years of playing DFS, there have been ups and downs with 2025 being my worst season on record. It’s important to have the transparency, as there are a number of different sites that just give quick picks and move on to the next week, but don’t actually teach you how to play the game. There are some people who simply repurpose my lineup, or want to see the lineup that I’ve built, which is fine. There are others however, who take a deeper look into why I’m playing certain players, and making their own judgements based on some of the skillsets that I’m using.

Starting in Week 2, we will have a breakdown of the Primary Cash Lineup, what went well, what didn’t, and track the results on a weekly basis to show how we are performing each week.

2026 Outlook

This season, I’ll be doing some exciting things. I’ll be covering both DraftKings and FanDuel articles, which makes it easy to compare and contrast the differences each week. Playing on both sites can create a distinct advantage, as some weeks one site has a significant edge over the other. For example, there are often multiple weeks when FanDuel screws up pricing so badly that it creates 3-4 players who are must-starts in cash games. Meanwhile, DraftKings often has much tighter pricing, but that can lead to weeks where you’re just not comfortable building a lineup around a player that you absolutely love.

If you’re reading both, a lot of the analysis for strong plays is going to be similar or even duplicative. While the analysis may be repurposed among articles, my guarantee is that I ensure that the rankings are accurately reflected for both sites and that if there is additional commentary for DraftKings specifically that will be added.

Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip- The Rookie Trap

Last season was frustrating for a number of reasons. Nothing was more frustrating than the success of duplicate train lineups, which we hadn't seen in many seasons. Several factors contributed to their success, but none more than the impact Emeka Egbuka had early last year. This is year 16 of playing DFS for me, and year 10 of this article. I’ve built a reputation for being slow to play rookies and those with offseason buzz. The “breakout” darling of the fantasy analysts often doesn’t come true when it comes to DFS, but when it does, it is going to be a painful season. Nothing was more evident than when Emeka Egbuka scored five touchdowns in his first five games last season. I continued to fade him, as the lack of red zone targets wasn't sustainable for his success, and ultimately he had just one touchdown in his next 12 games; but at that point, starting as slow as I did became a spiraling snowball effect.

This season, that same risk applies for players like Carnell Tate. If he’s a player that people are going to be high on this season, I will gladly fade him for the first few weeks of the season. This isn’t stubbornness; it’s not overreacting. People saw the 2024 success of Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers and immediately overreacted to taking rookies last year, as Tetairoa McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were among the most popular players every week. The reality, however, is that for every Thomas/Nabers, there are Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, etc who were also heavily played in 2024.

We will see how the field reacts to a player like Tate. I suspect he will not be as popular as Egbuka was last season, simply because of the offense and the questions for Cam Ward, but don’t be surprised if the field jumps all over rookies after one good game. There will be weeks where players like KC Concepcion, Makai Lemon, Omar Cooper Jr., or Jordyn Tyson get popular.

Evaluate these rookies on a case-by-case basis. Did that player's role change? Did they just get fortunate luck like Egbuka did early last season? What do their targets look like, especially red-zone targets?

Injuries Create Opportunity

Week 1 used to have some horrific pricing due to preseason injuries. Preseason injuries are much less frequent now compared to the past, so there are not many injuries ahead of Week 1.

Alvin Kamara looks like he will play this week after coming into the week as more doubtful than questionable. Kamara was a full participant on Friday, which helps the Saints and gives them another playmaker, but it does greatly impact Travis Etienne Jr.’s upside as the bell-cow running back this week.

Tua Tagovailoa will miss this week with an oblique injury, while Michael Penix Jr. will miss with a knee. This leaves Cooper Rush as the Falcons' starting quarterback. While Rush is capable, the biggest impact to this offense is that they’ve been preparing for a left-handed quarterback with either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. Now, with a right-handed Rush, the entire playbook looks slightly different. Everything is a little bit backward, and how the offense will deal with that is a big question.

Rome Odunze is questionable with a calf injury. This is a critical injury, as if he were to miss, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland move from good plays to must-starts.

Brock Bowers will miss for the Raiders. Michael Mayer will get the start, while Tre Tucker should see an upgrade at the wide receiver position this week as the returning leading receiver should see a significant workload with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.

2026 Week 1 Strategy

Historically on DraftKings, the successful strategy was to pay up for running backs and find underpriced mid-low tier wide receivers. While the elite running backs still scored more than the elite wide receivers because of the 0.5 PPR, the gap between the top two wide receivers and the rest of the field was staggering last year. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were nearly must-plays every week. For reference, Nacua scored 377 points in 16 games last season, which is 23.5 per game. The seventh-highest receiver had 128 fewer points, as Zay Flowers had just 249. Long story short, the drop-off from the truly elite wide receivers was massive last year, and it was a scenario where, in order to have success, you had to have one, or often both, if you could afford it.

Interestingly, in 2024, one wide receiver clearly separated himself from the group: Ja'Marr Chase, who had 85 more points than the second-highest-scoring wide receiver on DraftKings, while the rest of the wide receivers were more closely bunched. Chase finished as the fourth-highest-scoring wide receiver despite Joe Burrow playing only eight games last season.