The New Reality No.191: 2023 Tier 1 NFL Free Agents

Tom Brady has turned into the most akin to NBA player control with his short contracts and sculpting his landing spot and surroundings. While 45 years old, he has eroded less than many of his peers firmly in their 30s. He is the outlier of outliers in terms of career arc. Until further notice, assume he is playing as opposed to the assumption of retirement. Tampa Bay does not have any notable skill position free agents around him, but finding greener (younger) pastures elsewhere is a distinct possibility. Brady is the biggest market mover if he were to change teams in the offseason. Using the guidepost that most of these bigger-name free agents will not change teams, Lamar Jackson is most likely to stay in Baltimore, whether a franchise tag or a long-term deal. Geno Smith is the wildcard. He is playing like a Tier 1 free agent but without the name cache and, obviously, a shorter track record of production especially pre-2022. If not big-name hunting with Brady or Jackson, Smith is the most intriguing outright free-agent quarterback with his high variance of market appeal around the NFL. As for dynasty, Brady and Smith are both in the Round 2 rookie pick zone of cost. Even one more top-12 season out of Brady validates the price point. Smith has a shot at crushing that valuation if he gains a longer-term contract in the offseason.

• Derek Carr
• Ryan Tannehill
• Carson Wentz
• Marcus Mariota