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The Re-Draft Roundtables Series
The Footballguys staff looks at various strategies to help you in redraft leagues.
Participating in a redraft league is a process that starts with the draft and hopefully ends with a championship. The Footballguys staff has answered several questions about various strategies to help you achieve your championship dreams. From the beginning to the end and everything in between, we've got you covered to give you the tools and knowledge needed to dominate your redraft league.
Is there a sweet spot for quarterbacks this year? Where would you prefer to take your starting quarterback this year?
I wrote this in my Josh Allen spotlight: “We could see unprecedented elite production from the quarterback position in fantasy football in 2022. Explosive dual-threats Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott all missed time and/or played through injuries last season. If most or all remain healthy, the elite quarterbacks will be a major storyline, and you'll want to have that advantage over your competition.” I’m targeting an elite quarterback this year, meaning the sweet spot is in rounds 3-8.
Positional targeting by round is an overrated idea. Every player has value and is worth rostering (or avoiding) depending on when they're coming off the board. This is why the concept of X-value and value-based drafting is so critical and why Footballguys -- whose founder Joe Bryant invented VBD -- has helped people dominate their leagues for 20+ years. My goal is to ensure I come away with at least two of my top-14 quarterbacks. I see a significant drop-off there in terms of projections and risk. I will say I'd avoid targeting Josh Allen. It's rarely worth drafting the consensus No. 1 quarterback, particularly when they're coming off the board a round or two before other projected top-five signal callers.
I don't necessarily have a preference in where I'm selecting my starting quarterback, as many different draft strategies can lead to success. In the past, I've gone with a late-round quarterback strategy and succeeded. I've also failed with that strategy. Everything is dependent on the value on the board when you're picking. If a league is leaning quarterback early, don't jump on the run of quarterbacks. Jump on the value that the run is creating, and come back for quarterback later. Still, when considering that, Josh Allen has appeal any time after the first round has concluded.
I don't like building my team around a top-three quarterback - simply because I find that you can get a lot of value from that position in the sixth through ninth rounds. I'd rather grab a solid running back or wide receiver in the early rounds. That said, if the draft is well into the fourth round and one of my top three quarterbacks is still on the board, I might consider taking him. If that happens, I will probably lay off that position for the rest of the draft and take a flyer on someone in the late rounds. This year, I expect to take my first quarterback in the fifth or sixth round and then look for a second somewhere in the 10th or 11th. I feel like this year, having a QBBC approach is a good way to build a strong, competitive team.
Draft position and scoring system can mean a run at the quarterback position can have a devastating effect on your team. Unless you need Josh Allen on your team, this is a year to wait and get the best one available before it's too late. With the increase in rushing quarterbacks, rushing touchdowns often determine an elite fantasy quarterback versus an average one. This also increases the injury risk, so grabbing two good options usually pays off.
Across the fantasy landscape, it's becoming more appealing to target an elite quarterback because of the value of having a true separator at the position. If you're comfortable with taking a quarterback in rounds 3 or 4, it's not as much of a drafting faux pas as it has been in years past. However, I prefer to maximize the talent I draft at other positions early on. The sweet spot will be rounds 8 and 9, where you can take a shot at someone like Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance, or Derek Carr outperforming their ADP.
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