This time of year is a great time to make trades in dynasty leagues. Recency bias plagues the minds of fantasy managers. Disappointing seasons and injuries can open up potential buy windows. Dave Kluge highlights his seven favorite Dynasty buys in this article. He'll use crowd-sourced rankings from our friends over at KeepTradeCut as their consensus ranking.
Trey Lance (QB14)
There’s a lot of uncertainty about the quarterback situation in San Fransisco, opening up a window to buy Trey Lance at a discount. Brock Purdy could return from his elbow injury before camp, but his availability for 2023 is still uncertain. His late-season push with the 49ers has many pundits expecting a camp battle that could go in either direction. But there were noticeable flaws in Purdy’s game that were exposed down the stretch. To close out the regular season, Purdy played against Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Washington, Las Vegas, and Arizona; not one defense that would qualify as a tough matchup. In Round 1 of the playoffs, he faced off against Seattle again and played admirably. But in the first real test of his NFL career, a home playoff game against Dallas, Purdy struggled. He failed to throw a single touchdown, completed passes at a rate below his average, and had the fewest passing yards per attempt since he was thrust unexpectedly into a game after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury. In addition to his bleak box score, there were multiple dropped interceptions. Getting pressure on a quarterback behind the 49ers' offensive line isn’t easy, but Purdy’s limitations as an athlete were exposed when Dallas did so.
The purpose of this isn’t to take away from what Purdy did last season but just to show that it was an ideal situation for a new quarterback. Meanwhile, looking at the two games Trey Lance played, one was on the road in Chicago during a torrential downpour. The other, he was knocked out with an injury in the first quarter. Less than ideal. We have yet to see what Lance can do as a full-time starter, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense is extremely friendly for quarterbacks. With an arsenal of weapons, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, this ecosystem is made for any quarterback to find fantasy success.
Lance and Purdy could not be more different as prospects. Lance was drafted third overall by the 49ers. His size (6-foot-4 and 226 pounds) is prototypical for an NFL quarterback. He’ll add a new layer to this offense as a rusher. Purdy is an undersized and relatively unathletic quarterback who was a pick away from going undrafted. He’ll make for an above-average backup, but the job is Lance’s to lose.
As we’ve seen from Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard, and now Purdy, good-but-not-great play from the quarterback position is enough to win in Shanahan’s system. Lance is the first quarterback this team has had with a chance to play great football. The 49ers have been a game away from a Super Bowl appearance in back-to-back years, and subpar quarterback play was the reason for both losses. With a significant investment made in Lance, expect the team to lean in his direction during camp this year and give him the first crack at the starting job. Given Lance’s rushing upside and the after-the-catch abilities of his weapons, Lance has all the tools to be a fantasy superstar starting in 2023 and for years to come.
J.K. Dobbins (RB15)
Coming from a 2020 Draft loaded with good running backs, J.K. Dobbins appears to be the forgotten man. It makes sense. A brutal preseason knee injury kept him off the field for all of 2021 and put a noticeable limp in his gait in 2022. But there are signs that a bounce-back could be on the horizon.
Let me remind you of Dobbins’ bizarre career path. He got off to a slow start as a rookie, failing to usurp the lead-back role from staff-favorite Gus Edwards. But in Week 11 of the 2020 season, Dobbins saw an unexpected uptick in usage, looked phenomenal, and never returned the gig. From Week 11 through the end of his rookie season, Dobbins averaged 87.8 yards per game on just 13.3 touches. Most surprisingly, though, he scored seven times in six games, showing an insatiable nose for the end zone and a penchant for big plays. Dobbins was touted as an elite running back option the following offseason, but a preseason knee injury kept him from ever playing. And while the headlines said “ACL,” there was much more to it. “It wasn't just a regular ACL. It was pretty bad. It was ACL, LCL, hamstring, meniscus,” according to Dobbins.
Weeks before the 2022 season, Dobbins was spotting with a knee brace and a limp in practice. He wasn’t cleared for the first couple of weeks of the season. He returned in Week 3 on a minimal workload before suffering a setback in Week 6. He returned for Weeks 14-17. Despite averaging over 100 yards per game over those four weeks, he looked far from healthy. His injured leg looked stiff, and he left plenty of yards on the table with his lack of ability to pull away in the open field. Despite those limitations, Dobbins saw 14.3 carries per game, more than he garnered during his late-season rookie-year explosion. On a per-carry basis, his 1.1 rushing yards over expectation per attempt ranked fifth-best in the NFL, behind only Khalil Herbert, Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, and Travis Etienne. The staff clearly trusts Dobbins to handle the load, he was efficient with his touches, and another year removed from injury should only benefit him.
Dobbins’ athleticism tests off the charts, and he’s still young. Both are strong indicators that he will be able to return to pre-injury form. Dobbins’ 4.32 40-yard dash at his Pro Day puts his speed inside the 99th percentile for running backs. His burst ranked inside the 96th percentile. Dobbins suffered an ankle injury that kept him from testing at the NFL Combine, but his strength, speed, and burst are impossible to ignore on film.
Still just 24 years old, this is the final year Dobbins has on his rookie contract with Baltimore. Having already shown a willingness to trust Dobbins with a heavy workload immediately following an injury, expect to see that expand even more in 2023. Whether he stays with Baltimore long-term or signs elsewhere in 2024, Dobbins has the size, speed, and historical production to be a productive three-down back in the NFL.
Tyler Allgeier (RB24)
Tyler Allgeier surprised a lot of people with his rookie season. By the end of the year, he had a full grasp of the Falcon’s starting running back role. He finished the season with 1,035 rushing yards, 139 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. While the overall numbers aren’t anything to write home about, his efficiency is hard to ignore. His future outlook should be that of cautious optimism.
Allgeier slid to the fifth round in the 2022 NFL Draft, and that’s really the only blemish on his profile. His 0.75 rushing yards over expectation per attempt ranked ninth-best in the NFL. He was top-20 in juke rate, evaded tackles, and breakaway run rate. His 5.2 yards per touch ranked 19th-best in the league. And he did this while seeing a stacked front on 22.9% of his carries, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Allgeier displayed a promising package of traits as a between-the-tackles hammer or a back who could make defenders miss in the open field.
Looking at the current depth chart, Allgeier’s only competition for touches is a soon-to-be-32-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson. It’s certainly possible that Atlanta is running for Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs, which would obviously be a hit to Allgeier’s value. But if Allgeier makes it through free agency unscathed, he is set for a monstrous season. Atlanta’s neutral pass rate was the lowest in the league, meaning this team wants to run the ball. The Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith had a history of feeding his lead back a massive workload. Now, Allgeier is no Derrick Henry, but it’s not crazy to think that the lead back in this offense can surpass 300 carries.
Allgeier showed his abilities as a polished and well-rounded back as a rookie. While there’s certainly a risk that he follows the paths of Jordan Howard, James Robinson, Michael Carter, and other efficient late-round running backs, there’s also hopeful upside given his profile and situation. Allgeier is currently the RB24 in consensus rankings and has upside that shouldn’t be ignored. Best of all, you can likely flip him for a future second-round rookie pick if you need a running back.
Treylon Burks (WR22)
Treylon Burks was one of last year’s most polarizing prospects, and nothing about his rookie season did much to give us a clearer picture. His value has dipped as low as WR26, despite ranking as WR14 after the draft. Burks faceplanted as a rookie, logging just 33 receptions for 444 yards. But his season was marred by injuries that are tough to pin against him.
Burks got a slow start to his season, as many rookies do. Through Week 4, he averaged just 32.3 scoreless receiving yards per game. An injury kept him out or limited for the next few weeks. But then, in Weeks 11-13, Burks showed us his potential ceiling. He followed up a 111-yard performance with a 70-yard outing. And then, in Week 13, he suffered a concussion while securing a contested 25-yard touchdown catch. Those three games were about all we saw from Burks that inspired confidence. But like Michael Pittman just a few years ago, it’s important not to read too deeply into an injury-ridden rookie season.
Burks is precisely who we thought he was as a prospect. He’s a great athlete with game-breaking speed. He’s aggressive with the ball in his hands and a supreme athlete. If anything, showcasing his ability to win routes down the field should incite faith in his adaptability to the NFL. But from a pure game theory perspective, if you were a believer before his rookie season, you’ve got to buy now. Although no fault of his own, Burks has seen his value steadily decline since last year’s draft. Asthma, concerns about his work ethic, and other inflammatory stories have worked against him and his worth. But nothing about his on-field play should be a deterrent.
Burks is a first-round pick on a team desperate for a WR1. He has the size and speed to be that guy. I’m not ready to write him off after one flukey season and would happily flip him for a proven vet on the wrong side of the age curve.
Marquise Brown (WR27)
Marquise Brown spent his first few years in the league on a run-first team. Because of that, he struggled to rack up meaningful stats. But his efficiency and adjusted volume numbers were enough to take notice of. Brown pulled a 27.3% target share as a rookie, the 22nd-highest in the league. He followed those years up with 23.4% and 27.9% target shares. The ability to command targets is one of the best things we can see from a young receiver. And after being traded to Arizona, he continued to draw targets but now on a pass-first team. Before his Week 6 injury, Brown was the WR5 in PPR scoring.
Brown and Kyler Murray had an electric connection in college that immediately translated to the pros. Still just 25 years old, Brown has plenty of peak years ahead of him. Looking at the state of the Cardinals could scare some people off, making Brown a valuable trade target. Kyler Murray tore his ACL late in the season, which makes 2023 appear to be a lost year. But if you’re rebuilding, Brown is the exact type of player you want to target.
When Murray is expected to be back and fully healthy in 2024, DeAndre Hopkins and Zach Ertz will likely be off the team. The stage will be set for a 27-year-old Brown to step in as the team’s WR1. Brown, a former first-round pick, is much more than a big-play weapon people perceive him to be. He has developed into a polished receiver who can win routes at every level of the field. Leading up to his injury, Brown was averaging 10.7 targets, 80.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. An entire season with that production level would have finished as WR5 this year, behind CeeDee Lamb and just ahead of A.J. Brown.
We must remember that Brown came into the league in a bad situation. He suffered a Lisfranc surgery in his final year in college, limiting him as a rookie. Even when healthy in Baltimore, his skillset wasn’t correctly utilized as the offense ran through the ground game and tight ends. We finally got a glimpse of what Brown could look like in a high-powered passing offense last year, and the result was elite fantasy production. Still on the right side of the age curve, Brown could have years of WR1 production ahead of him and is being valued as a middling WR2 in Dynasty.
Jakobi Meyers (WR43)
My favorite thing about Jakobi Meyers is that you can get him for next to nothing. He’s being valued as a throw-in WR4 in dynasty transactions, even though he’s expected to lead this free-agency class in the coming weeks. His 12.9 fantasy points per game in 2022 weren’t exceptional but ranked 29th among wide receivers. And his situation in 2023 is almost assuredly set to improve.
Meyers was recruited out of high school as a quarterback and didn’t switch to wide receiver until 2017, his sophomore year. It’s crazy that last year was just the sixth year Meyers has played receiver, and he’s playing it well at the highest level. He had a quiet rookie season before an unexpected uptick in volume in Year 2. But in 2021, his third year in the NFL, he put the league on notice. His 126 targets were the 20th-most among any wide receiver. Although he saw a downturn in volume in 2022, we can chalk that up to injury. Meyers missed three full games and was limited in a few others. But when on the field, Meyers appeared to have taken a step forward. He wrestled away contested catches, beat top corners, and, most importantly, scored touchdowns. Meyers had only scored twice through his first three years and 248 targets. That rate regressed in his favor last year, as he found paydirt six times. 2022 was an audition for Meyers to see if he could develop into a WR1, and he showed that he has.
At 26 years old, Meyers hits free agency in a year barren of high-end talent. Meyers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Allen Lazard lead a lackluster free-agent group. Meyers likely secures a bag this offseason to be a team’s WR1. If not, he can be added to an explosive offense as a WR2 or WR3. The Bills, Cowboys, and Bengals are all looking for more weapons. The Bears, with a league-high $96M in cap space, are searching for Justin Fields’ WR1. Any of these landing spots would be great for Meyers’ fantasy output. The Patriots ranked bottom-12 in most passing volume stats last year. If Meyers lands on a team with better quarterback play, he could be a viable fantasy asset.
Right now, you might be able to acquire Meyers for as little as a late second-round pick. But the best thing to do is add Meyers as a piece to balance the scales in a bigger trade. Meyers has quietly strung together some seasons as an elite target earner and is on the cusp of breaking out with a new team. While he’s no guarantee to break out, his ceiling and cost make him a valuable player to target.
Mike Gesicki (TE20)
There are certainly splashier tight ends you can target in trades than Mike Gesicki. But this is the cheapest you’ve been able to acquire the young tight end since he came into the league. Gesicki was consistently in the conversation as a dynasty TE1 through his first few seasons. But when 2022 camps started, and it became apparent that Gesicki would be an afterthought in Mike McDaniels’ offense, his value plummeted. Although it dipped as low as TE25 in December, you can acquire him currently for a TE20 price tag.
Like the aforementioned Jakobi Meyers, Gesicki will hit free agency this offseason. The former second-round pick has flashed many times throughout his career but has yet to eclipse the 800-yard mark in a single season. Through five years in Miami, Gesicki has played under three head coaches, four offensive coordinators, and eight different starting quarterbacks. A bit of consistency with a new team might do him well.
Gesicki was pretty close to a can’t-miss prospect coming into the league. His 4.54 40-yard dash put him in the 95th percentile. His speed, burst, agility, and catch metrics also landed inside the 96th percentile. He’s got a massive 6-foot-6 frame and can move with surprising swiftness. But he’s a unique player. He’s not a good enough blocker to play in-line and is too bulky to play full-time in the slot. Adam Gase likely had plans for Gesicki when they drafted him in the second round. But he was fired later that year, and no coaching staff has figured out what to do with Gesicki since. Following a similar trajectory to Greg Olsen and Evan Engram, a change of scenery could do wonders for Gesicki. He’ll need to land somewhere with a creative coach, but the Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, and Packers all make for intriguing and possible landing spots.
Acquiring him at this point in his career is believing his prospect profile still holds. He’s 27 years old, and about to hit the age apex for tight ends. There’s hope for Gesicki to be a weekly fantasy starter with a fresh start and a new team.
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