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Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Slate Overview- Week 5 Thoughts
Week 5 is one of the more difficult weeks in recent memory. The biggest issue is that there are very little injuries that create new value particularly at the running back position. From a game theory perspective, we have a number of running backs that are all bunched together in terms of roster percentages, so it is really about picking the right players and avoiding the traps. What is interesting this week, is that people as of now, seem to be overreacting a little bit to the most recent weeks. These middle weeks, can typically be the beginning of the end for DFS as it typically peaks right around Weeks 5-8, as the casual players then drop off for NBA or other sports.
Key Injuries for Week 5
There are several critical injuries this week and some scenarios that we are still keeping an eye on.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown will miss this week with an abdominal injury. This will leave Sam LaPorta and Josh Reynolds as the top targets in Detroit, both of which are great plays this week.
- Cooper Kupp returns this week, which will create a bit of a logjam for the Rams for the time being. The issue is that both Kupp and Puka Nacua are priced as if they are elite wide receivers, and their upside is limited this week based on their price and potential opportunity with both being in the lineup.
- Tee Higgins will miss this week with a rib injury. This should open up additional opportunities for the passing game, but the big question is the health of Joe Burrow. JaMarr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd should all see additional workload, but this offense has been one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL this season.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has been downgraded to doubtful this week. This will make David Montgomery one of the most popular plays of the week.
Stacking a running back with a quarterback is a little bit unique, but Kyren Williams leads the Rams in red zone targets. This all could change with Cooper Kupp returning this week, but both Kupp and Puka Nacua are too expensive and are likely to cannibalize each other’s upside this week. Kupp is essentially priced as if he was fully healthy as he is the third highest wide receiver on this slate where we aren’t even sure how much he is going to be playing this week.
For Stafford, this is entirely assuming that this game will be the highest scoring game of the week. The Eagles’ secondary has been abysmal compared to last year’s dominant unit, as this year they are allowing 279 yards passing per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is the best quarterback that they have faced this season. So far this year, the Eagles have faced Mac Jones, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell, and have allowed 290 yards or more to 3 of those 4 with the only one who failed to do so being Mayfield. This is a rebuilt secondary as the team lost both of their safeties in the offseason as C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps, while at corner Avonte Maddox is out due to injury. The biggest issue for the Eagles has been the lack of pass rush as they set the NFL record last season with 70 sacks.
At a total cost of $12,300, this is a very affordable stack for the Rams, and allows you to spend up to have A.J. Brown on the other side of this game.
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