Monday Injury Report Week 3

Photo: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports

Week 2 was not any kinder to our fantasy football rosters, and after a difficult Week 1, some fantasy rosters may already be in trouble. Here are some of the major injuries from this past slate of games. Make adjustments where needed and take advantage of all the resources that Footballguys has to offer so that you can recover if your team was afflicted by an injury below.

Key:

(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play

WR Jaylen Waddle Miami Dolphins | Concussion | Projecting Week 3/4 Return

After taking a hard hit to the back of his head Sunday night, Jaylen Waddle was taken to the blue medical tent to be examined for a concussion. He was later ruled out and did not return. On average, NFL WRs miss one week with concussions, with >75% missing at least one week. Waddle will have to clear the concussion protocol this week in order to return next Sunday.

WR Davante Adams Las Vegas Raiders | Concussion | Projecting Week 3/4 Return

Similar to Jaylen Waddle, Davante Adams also sustained a concussion Sunday. Unfortunately, Adams has a concussion history, and minus the year where he had two concussions in the same season, he has typically returned the following week. No concussion is ever the same; thus, he will also be one for fantasy football managers to monitor as the week progresses. Adams' teammate Jakobi Meyers missed Week 2 with a concussion.

Tuesday Update: Monday afternoon Raiders' HC Josh McDaniels told reporters that Davante Adams is "good" after being evaluated for a concussion Sunday. The phrasing of the question and response is not 100% clear but this would suggest that Adams is not in the concussion protocol, meaning that unless another injury arose he would be able to play in Week 3.

QB Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals | Calf (Re)Injury | Projecting Week 3 Return

The Cincinnati Bengals' offense has gotten off to a really slow start in 2023, and part of the issue may be related to Joe Burrow's calf. Typically a 2-3 week injury, Burrow was sidelined ~4.5 weeks in the preseason. Although that time span was maybe skewed because there was no incentive for the Bengals to rush Burrow back in the preseason, it might have been a small glimpse of the severity of the injury.

Cincinnati reported Sunday that Burrow re-aggravated his calf injury in their Week 2 loss and that he would be considered "day-to-day." There is also some concern that this could be a multi-week injury. The Bengals are 0-2 and cannot afford to dig themselves into a deeper hole. If Burrow was more of a mobile QB, the effects of this injury could be more significant. For that reason, I think there is chance Burrow continues to play but it could be a bumpy road along the way.

RB Saquon Barkley New York Giants | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 6 Return

Saquon Barkley exited late in Sunday's game vs. Arizona with a right ankle injury, and by video, the mechanism fit a high ankle sprain

Saquon Barkley Injury Video

Unsure exactly what it is but this is a textbook mechanism for a high ankle sprain

IF that is the case. Average time missed is 4 weeks for RBs with an 18% in production rest of season pic.twitter.com/KGgKjiP5UU

— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 17, 2023

Obviously, video is never diagnostic, but here is what we do know. X-rays of Barkely's ankle were negative - perfect. This means there is no fracture. Additionally, Brian Daboll, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport, is "hopeful" regarding Barkely's ankle, and there are some hopes that Barkely is not dealing with a high ankle sprain. Even with all of this information, I do not think Barkley will play Week 3, as the Giants have the Thursday night game.

Regarding the two most likely injuries, here is what Barkley managers need to know.

If it is a high ankle, this can be a 3-4 week injury. RBs who miss time see an 18% decline in fantasy points per game for the rest of the season (ROS). It's worth noting that Barkley had a high ankle sprain in 2019, and he was one of the few outliers, as his ROS production only dipped by 6%.

If it is a classic ankle sprain - the average time missed is 1-2 weeks. In the next three games after a player returns, fantasy production also decreases by 16.5% but returns to normal afterward.

Monday Update: Adam Schefter reporting that Barkley is dealing with an "ordinary" ankle sprain. Use the "classic ankle sprain" data above for Barkley. It sounds like New York is eyeing a Week 6 return.

Tuesday Update: Brian Daboll (Giants' Head Coach) is calling Barkley a game-time decision for the Thursday night game. I am less optimistic.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions | Possible Toe Injury | Projecting Week 3 Return

Although the Lions have not officially come out and said that Amon-Ra St. Brown is dealing with a toe/turf toe injury, there is a lot of speculation growing online, and I believe that it warrants at least a discussion.

Will be monitoring this situation closely this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown looked to injure that right big toe yesterday. Looks like classic turf toe mechanism. pic.twitter.com/DUy7kf7h6j

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) September 18, 2023

The mechanism of injury certainly fits that of turf toe, and there is even additional video of St. Brown getting a plate put in his shoe, which could also hint at a turf toe issue. Turf toe injuries are difficult injuries for WRs. Of the 19 most common NFL WR injuries I've collected data on, it is one of the 7 that average time missed is >3 weeks (reinforcing the difficulty this injury causes). Post-injury over a 3-game sample WR fantasy production takes a hit - dropping by 13% over that time period. That doesn't sound terrible, but this is weighted because 87% of WRs with turf toe in my database missed time, suggesting they have had adequate time to heal/recover. I am projecting St. Brown plays next week because he played through the injury in Week 2, but this is a murky situation. Because of it, that top-end upside fantasy managers have been accustomed to might not be there with St. Brown. Detroit does not have a bye until Week 9, so it might be up-and-down until then, with a decent chance that St. Brown misses a few games over that span.

RB David Montgomery Detroit Lions | Thigh Injury - Contusion | Projecting Week 5 Return

David Montgomery was unable to finish Sunday's game with a thigh injury, and when video surfaced of him being carted to the locker room, some fantasy managers may have gotten nervous. Although no injury is "good news", it does appear that Montgomery avoided a long-term injury. Reporters are diagnosing him with a quadriceps contusion. Montgomery himself told the Detroit press that he would miss "a couple of weeks", but rarely do these injuries linger beyond 2 weeks. There is a good chance he will be back by Week 5.

WR Brandon Aiyuk San Francisco 49ers | Shoulder Injury | Projecting Week 4 Return

Brandon Aiyuk appeared to injure his left shoulder early in the game Sunday, and video showed him in discomfort on the sidelines. Aiyuk ended up finishing the game but only played 53% of the 49er's team snaps. By video, Aiyuk could be dealing with an AC joint sprain. There is evidence of some players playing through this injury during the game, but afterward, swelling and pain increase and could result in time missed. The 49ers also play on Thursday, so this also hampers his chances of playing through injury. Right now, signs point to time missed.

QB Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts | Concussion | Projecting Week 4 Return

Anthony Richardson is in the NFL's concussion protocol after hitting his head on the turf after his second rushing TD of the day. Compared to RBs and WRs, for whatever reason, QBs tend to miss more time with concussions. Relying on the data tells us that Richardson misses Week 3.

WR DK Metcalf Seattle Seahawks | Rib Injury | Projecting Week 3 Return

After a blow to his torso, DK Metcalf left the game with a rib injury, but he did return and finish the contest. The fact that Metcalf was able to return suggests that he does not have a fracture, but similar to Bradon Aiyuk's injury situation, Metcalf's pain will likely increase this week. He very well could miss practices and be limited, but assuming he can manage the pain, he should suit up for Week 3.

WR Odell Beckham Jr Baltimore Ravens | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 4 Return

Odell Beckham Jr did not finish Sunday's game at Cincinnati due to an ankle injury, but Jim Harbaugh called his injury "minor." Wide receivers average 2 weeks missed, with 48% missing no time at all. Given his injury history, age, and the fact that he was unable to finish the game, it's very possible Beckham will sit next week.

RB Chase Edmonds Tampa Bay Buccaneers | MCL Sprain | Projecting Week 6 Return

Chase Edmonds is going to miss time with an MCL sprain. He was not relevant in most fantasy football leagues, but if you roster Rachaad White and need his handcuff, Sean Tucker figures to be the next man up.

RB Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns | Knee Injury | Season Ending

Unfortunately, Nick Chubb sustained a serious left knee injury during Cleveland's Monday night loss at Pittsburgh. The Browns have not made any official statements yet but that would just be a formality at this point. Chubb's 2023 season is over.

RB Jamaal Williams | Hamstring strain | Projecting Week 5 Return

Jamall Williams exited Monday night's game and did not return to action. Tuesday Saints' coach Dennis Allen said Williams may "take some time to get back." The fact that the hamstring injury pulled Williams from the game suggests that he will miss additional time and on average NFL RBs miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring strain. Alvin Kamara cannot return until Week 4 and Kendre Miller has battled injuries all off-season (pour one out for my fellow Kendre Miller truthers out there). Tony Jones Jr. may very well be fantasy viable...at least for one week.