The New Reality No.212: Projecting 2024 Breakout QBs and RBs

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.212: Projecting 2024 Breakout QBs and RBs Chad Parsons Published 12/12/2023

Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2024:

QUARTERBACKS

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Why: For as poor of a rookie season Bryce Young (and the Panthers) have had, this recommendation is an annual reminder that 1.01-drafted quarterbacks are one of the most durable dynasty assets and bets for a post-Year 1 rebound. The past 18 quarterbacks who have been drafted 1.01 have averaged QB24 in Year 1, and only three (Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck) have started their career with a top-12 season. Despite this lack of overt Year 1 success, 67% of the sample size has posted a top-6 finish in Year 2 or beyond. Plus, 17 of 18 (JaMarcus Russell the lone complete whiff) posted a top-20 season in Year 2 or beyond. In short, Young is essentially a lock to improve in the next 12-24 months in a strong, if not pronounced, fashion. Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff are recent examples of 'the sky is falling' results in Year 1, which whiplashed to Year 2 success.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Young include:

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Why: Burrow is sliding to the QB6-8 range in the dynasty market, cooled from his perch in the 2023 offseason thanks to a slow start to the season and a season-ending injury to bookend his year. While still on the early side of his career, Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks to have multiple seasons of at least a 2.00 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. This is a key marker for elite and durable quarterback profiles. Burrow hit in 2021 and 2022 and, even in a down 2023 season, posted 1.89. The NFL average this season is 1.19 as a threshold marker. The lone repeat qualifers in their career are:

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Burrow include:

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.

An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Dynasty leagues. If this league is not a Dynasty league, you can edit your leagues here.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

Featured Articles

 

Sleepers to Monitor: The Gut Check No. 649

Matt Waldman

Sleepers are the foundation of a winning endgame. Matt Waldman profiles five to monitor this summer.

07/18/25 Read More
 
 
 
 

More by Chad Parsons

 

The New Reality No.233: Early 2025 NFL Draft Prospects

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

01/01/25 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Season Recap

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

01/01/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trading Post: Season Recap, Trading Rules

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons analyzes the dynasty trading market for strategy, target players, and team-building concepts.

12/24/24 Read More
 

High-Leverage Opportunities, Running Backs: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Running back production is fueled by goal-line carries and targets in the passing game. Chad Parsons breaks down high-leverage opportunities every week.

12/24/24 Read More
 

Cutting the Cord, Final Waiver Wire Moves: Week 17

Chad Parsons

Chad Parsons outlines fantasy football trade and drop player recommendations to make room for the next breakout player or key bye-week replacement.

12/24/24 Read More
 

The New Reality No.232: Lessons Learned, 2025 Strategy

Chad Parsons

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

12/24/24 Read More