Week 16 Rushing Matchups

Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 5 Rushing Matchups

Tennessee vs Seattle

The Titans have continued to lean heavily on Derrick Henry to control the clock and hide their spotty passing game. The results haven't been nearly as consistent as we're used to seeing. Henry has run for 75+ yards in seven games thus far, but he's also landed below 40 in five others. That includes last week's 16-carry, 9-yard day that torpedoed countless fantasy playoff openers. Still, he'll retain the same volume with Ryan Tannehill back under center, and he could hardly ask for a softer matchup. Henry should again be able to overcome his weak front line and churn his way through the porous Seahawks.

The Seahawks come riding the high of their surprising Week 15 win over the Eagles. That said, the game did nothing to soothe concerns over their leaky run defense, which now ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this season. D'andre Swift became the sixth back over the last seven weeks to run for 70+ yards on the Seahawks. A few of those runners, like Christian McCaffrey, Jalen Hurts, and Keaton Mitchell, were able to find massive daylight and convert it into breakaway runs. Seattle is still rebuilding its front line, which is often brushed aside on impact and does little to support the linebackers. They added Leonard Williams at midseason, but he's much more of a star for his pass-rush work than as a space-eating run-stuffer. It didn't help to lose Uchenna Nwosu, an elite run-stopping end, to a long-term injury in Week 7. Opponents have gashed them on all levels of the field since, and the Titans will look to do the same with a Derrick Henry-centric game plan.

Chicago vs Arizona

The Bears haven't run the ball effectively of late. They use a committee, and only quarterback Justin Fields has been able to top 50 yards in a game over the past 4 weeks. That said, those four games did come against a run of especially stout run defenses (Minnesota, Cleveland, and Detroit twice). They'll go to the opposite end of the spectrum in Week 16, where the inept Cardinals defense awaits. The Bears likely won't commit to a single back Sunday, but all their bodies should see maximum efficiency. If there is a running back to look at, it could be Roschon Johnson, as D'Onta Foreman had negative six yards on six carries and ultimately saw most of his snaps given to Johnson, who had 49% of the snaps and did have nine touches, although four of those were receptions.

The Cardinals have spent all of the 2023 season as one of fantasy's most favorable matchups. They've now allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to produce an 80+ yard rusher, with 8 of those topping 95. Opposing coaches see this, of course, so they've faced the league's third-most rushing attempts (31.0 a game). The Cardinals simply lack talent all over the front seven as the rebuild of this defense has not worked, given the losses of J.J. Watt, Zach Allen, and Zaven Collins, and the linebackers have been decimated with injuries. Nor are there starting-caliber linebackers in place. The Cardinals saw another devastating injury as Josh Woods was placed on IR as both of their starting linebackers are out for the season as they lost Kyzir White to a bicep injury earlier this year. One-cut-and-go runners like Kyren Williams (143 yards), Devin Singletary (112 and 1 touchdown), and Bijan Robinson (95 and 1) have exploited it relentlessly over the past month. And Christian McCaffrey (115 and 1) easily reached his value point in Week 15.

Carolina vs Green Bay

The Panthers aren't attractive to the fantasy world right now, and no one would be faulted for keeping all of them on the bench for Week 16. Still, those looking for steady volume could do much worse than Chuba Hubbard. The once-afterthought has banished Miles Sanders and taken on 25, 23, and 22 rushes over the last three weeks. The results – 104, 87, and 87 yards – have been welcomed surprises for fantasy folks forced to stream running backs. And in Week 16, he'll be facing a run defense trending down horribly over the season's stretch run. The Panthers don't want the game in Bryce Young's hands, and they have no top pick to tank for. They'll remain deeply committed to the run, grinding unimaginatively into the line, and Hubbard projects to one of his biggest days of the year.

The Packers' run defense under defensive coordinator Joe Barry has fallen apart as they have gone from 11th to 26th to 30th over the last three seasons. In Week 15, the Buccaneers broke the streak of five consecutive games allowing 140 yards rushing or more, and while Rachaad White did end up with 89 yards, Tampa Bay's other players were unable to add much more as Chase Edmonds had just 13 yards on 3 carries. The team has heavily invested in their defense, but they still badly lack playmaking talent up front. Quay Walker and veteran De'Vondre Campbell dominate the linebacker snaps, yet both grade poorly in all phases of defense. It doesn't help that top safety Darnell Savage, himself much better known for his work against the pass, has missed much of 2023. Opponents have little trouble pushing through and into the secondary; even the toothless Panthers project to turn big volume into yardage here.