Rushing Matchups Week 21

Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.

Top 2 Rushing Matchups

Baltimore vs Kansas City

Baltimore continues to be the league's best-run offense regardless of matchup. Facing one of the most difficult matchups in Houston last week, Baltimore ran for 229 yards, led by Lamar Jackson's 100-yard performance. On the season, despite resting their players in Week 18, Baltimore had 156 rushing yards per game, which led the NFL with the next closest team being Chicago at 141 yards. This is a difficult offense to play against because of the dynamic ability of MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson, who defenses constantly have to account for, while Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, and now Dalvin Cook will rotate behind a good offensive line led by right tackle Morgan Moses and center Tyler Linderbaum.

Kansas City's had a down week in Buffalo, allowing 101 yards to James Cook and Ty Johnson, while Josh Allen added another 72 yards on the ground. Mobile quarterbacks have been a problem against the Chiefs for the last four weeks as they've allowed 25 yards rushing or more to Tua Tagovailoa, Jake Browning, Easton Stick, and now 72 to Josh Allen. The issue for the Chiefs is that they are a team that is built to get pressure on the quarterback with players such as Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Mike Danna, who all contributed to the second-most sacks in the NFL this season. However, this is not a team designed to stop the run, as safeties Mike Edwards and Justin Reid have both struggled in run defense, while the defensive line often looks uninterested in stopping the run. The bright spot of this defense has been the linebackers, as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr are above-average run-stopping linebackers this season. On the season, this team has allowed 4.6 yards per carry and has allowed two running backs to top 100 yards this season, as the Raiders were able to do it twice.

Detroit at San Francisco

Jahmyr Gibbs, in a difficult matchup last week, showed why he is so incredibly dangerous every time he touches the ball. While he has been boom or bust this season, largely driven by big plays, Gibbs was able to amount 74 yards on just 9 carries against one of the league's best-run defenses in Tampa Bay. Gibbs now has 11 carries of 20 yards or longer, which is second in the NFL, while David Montgomery continues to be the short-yardage back who does not have much burst but rarely gets tackled behind the line of scrimmage. The big concern this week is the health of the offensive line in Detroit, as center Frank Ragnow is questionable with knee and ankle injuries, while left guard Jonah Jackson is doubtful with a torn meniscus. Ragnow is one of the league's best centers this season, and if he were to miss, this would be a significant downgrade to the running upside of both Gibbs and Montgomery. This offensive line is ranked number two by offensive line expert Matt Bitonti, but without Ragnow, it would take a significant downgrade.

San Francisco's run defense struggled last week as Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards on 18 carries. Jones became the first running back to top 100 yards against the 49ers since Jonathan Taylor in Week 7 of 2021. This defense benefits from having the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season as they faced the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL yet are still allowing 4.1 yards per carry to opponents this season. This defense has very few weaknesses and has the best linebacker group in the NFL, led by Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. The defensive line is more incredibly talented and can overwhelm a poor offensive line, but it is more focused on the pass rush than having an elite space-eating defensive tackle. If there is a significant hole in this defense, it is the loss of safety Talanoa Hufanga, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. Replacement Logan Ryan has struggled in run defense and has left this team susceptible to big plays, as we saw with Aaron Jones' 53-yard run.

Bottom 2 Rushing Matchups

Kansas City at Baltimore

Despite an inconsistent passing attack, Kansas City has found itself in the AFC Championship thanks to Isiah Pacheco, who has been tremendous over the seven games. Pacheco has topped 80 yards rushing in five of his last seven games, is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns over his last seven games. Pacheco is running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, as Matt Bitonti has them ranked as the number three offensive line in the NFL, led by center Creed Humphrey. The Chiefs suffered a massive loss last week with All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, who is doubtful with a pectoral injury. Nick Allegretti will likely fill in for Thuney, and while he has not played much this season, he has filled in as an adequate replacement in the past as he played in Week 18. Keep an eye on Pacheco, as he did not practice on Thursday, but all indications are that he will play. If he were to scratch this week, Clyde Edwards-Helaire would see the bulk of the carries although La'Mical Perine could also have a role.

Baltimore's run defense bounced back nicely after struggling heading into the playoffs. Baltimore had allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last five games but held Devin Singletary and Dare Ogunbowale to just 29 yards on 11 carries last week. The big difference for the Ravens is the return of Kyle Hamilton, who was injured in Week 16 and missed the last three games of the season. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are healthy after two weeks off as they were nursing shoulders and pectoral injuries before getting two weeks off. The combination of Smith, Queen, and Hamilton, along with the space-eating defensive tackles of Michael Pierce and Justin Madubuike, make up a dangerous unit. From Week 1 through Week 15, the Ravens allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, so continuing to play at a high level will be critical for them to make a Super Bowl run.

San Francisco vs Detroit

The 49ers leveraged Christian McCaffrey to do just enough to pull out the victory despite playing one of their worst games all season. McCaffrey was great, accumulating 98 yards on 17 carries, scoring two touchdowns, and adding another 30 yards receiver. However, this offense is not the same without the dynamic Deebo Samuel, who left last week with a shoulder injury. The 49ers tried to utilize Jauan Jennings in that role, giving him one carry before abandoning the running game besides McCaffrey as Jennings lost a yard on the play. Samuel's status is unknown but appears more doubtful than questionable, as he did not participate in practice on Wednesday based on the injury report.

Detroit's run defense continues to be the best in the NFL this season. Last week, against the Buccaneers, Rachaad White did have some of the most success against this team of all running backs this season as he averaged 6.1 yards per carry, but that was on just 9 attempts as the Buccaneers largely abandoned the run for most of the game. This defense has not allowed a running back to top 70 yards all season. The Lions are led by defensive tackle Alim McNeil and Aidan Hutchinson, along with athletic linebackers Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, while rookie safety Brian Branch continues to be one of the most versatile players in the NFL as he is a run-stopping specialist who can also play slot corner or lineup in the box as an additional run-stopper.