The Gut Check No.594: Upgrade-Downgrade the Titans Offense

Photo: Jenna Watson, USA Today Sports

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The State of the Titans

One of my new RSP podcasts this year is a bi-weekly show with fantasy analyst Brandon Angelo called Going Deep. A former four-time All-American and Power Five conference champion sprinter, Angleo works in sports and human performance as a mentor, instructor, and guide for athletes.

Last week, Angelo characterized the Titans as a team that is at the point of no return: Win now with the current personnel because new GM Ran Carthon will be blowing up the team and rebuilding next year.

It's a logical thought. Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the offense's two most important skill players, are on the backsides of their careers. They still have productive years left but like most NFL teams, the Titans won't be paying premium dollars to re-sign the 34-year-old Tannehill and 29-year-old Henry in 2024.

The offensive line is young and unproven. Footballguys staff writer Matt Bitonti has the unit dead last in his June rankings. When the core of an offense is this green, it's time to rebuild, and the youth movement already began last year.

Second-year receivers Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo are a pair of promising options who can stretch the field and win after the catch on underneath routes. Tyjae Spears has the talent and versatility to succeed Henry as the lead back.

Although Burks, Okonkwo, and Spears are a good start to a youth movement in Tennessee, the Titans lack a foundation to build on. That foundation is a young quarterback.

Malik Willis was the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's (RSP) ninth-ranked rookie quarterback last year behind the likes of Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell, Bailey Zappe, Skylar Thompson, and Brock Purdy. Willis' athletic ability and arm made him a first-round physical talent, but his decision-making, reading of his receivers' positions versus zone coverage, technical mechanics as a thrower, and immaturity as a scrambler all need work.

Whereas Lamar Jackson was better than Michael Vick as a prospect, Willis was a remedial version of Vick, and the Titans' decision to draft another passer in 2023 while rolling with Tannehill for one more year is a telling indication of how far Willis has to go.

That 2023 rookie quarterback is Will Levis, and much to the dismay of Titans fans, Levis might be the one pick who actually gives Willis a second chance with the Titans. The RSP's 13th-ranked quarterback out of 14 scouted pre-draft, Levis has a franchise arm and athletic ability that inspired comparisons to Josh Allen among the media and public.

Like Allen, Levis has to improve his decision-making. Unlike Allen, Levis has a variety of technical flaws as a passer that compound the risk of believing he's a top prospect who will eventually "have the light come on" and he'll become a franchise talent. I didn't have strong grades for Willis or Levis, but I at least had Willis graded as an NFL-level talent.

I didn't have an NFL-caliber grade for Levis, although I understand the mentality of giving college players with uncommon arm talent a chance to grow into the job. It's way too early to write off Levis, but the fact that Willis is outperforming Levis right now isn't an encouraging sign and validates some of my assessments about the rookie.

The DeAndre Hopkins Signing and Fantasy Impact

Until Tennessee finds a younger quarterback of value — whether it's one of the passers they already have on the roster who makes significant strides this year — or it acquires one via trade, free agency, or the 2024 draft, it was a wise decision to sign Hopkins and give the offense enough short-term weaponry to contend.

Mike Vrabel is a good coach, and there's a good balance of youth, skill, and experience to challenge the Jacksonville Jaguars for one last AFC South title before Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud overtake the Titans and make this a highly contested division.

I studied the Titans' skill talent after the Hopkins signing to determine how the addition impacts the fantasy value of Tennessee's key offensive talents. Below are my upgrade-downgrade thoughts on seven options based on their current Footballguys ADP.

I'm also sharing my thoughts on their values in terms of ceiling, median, and floor.

Upgrade: QB Ryan Tannehill

The ageists and box score jockeys will be prone to overlooking Tannehill, who only played 12 games last year. Even so, Tannehill was on track for a 3,600-yard season with an impressive 7.8 yards per attempt. His 18 projected passing touchdowns and 3 projected rushing scores offset the potential positives of his yardage, but let's remember that Tannehill lacked a well-rounded receiving corps.

Burks and Okonkwo were rookies, and Robert Woods was coming off an ACL tear. Woods didn't match expectations and took a pay cut late in the year to remain with the team. Rookie Kyle Philips couldn't stay healthy after a promising camp.

Based on the difference between how the media and public perceive him and his reality as a quarterback, Tannehill is the Jared Goff of the AFC. Give Tannehill legitimate weapons and support and he can deliver.

Tannehill's best statistical seasons were 2014-15 and 2020. These were the years where Tannehill had a solid supporting cast of receivers and runners.

Tannehill 2014: 4,352 yards from scrimmage and 28 total touchdowns

• RB Lamar Miller (1,374 yards from scrimmage and 9 scores)
• WR Jarvis Landry (84 catches, 754 yards, and 5 scores)
• WR Mike Wallace (71 touches, 878 yards, and 10 scores)
• TE Charles Clay (58 catches, 605 yards, and 3 scores)

Tannehill didn't generate elite production during any of these seasons, but he delivered at least low-end starter value in most fantasy leagues, if not weekly starter production.

A few things stand out with Tannehill's career. One, he's never had an elite receiver to target who was in his prime. Landry was an excellent possession option but not a match-up weapon one-on-one anywhere on the field. A.J. Brown comes closest, but one can argue that the Titans traded Brown just as he was entering his prime years.

Brown might be the only receiver Tannehill has played with who could win one-on-one anywhere on the field. The most productive quarterbacks always have at least one player with that ability and often two. Tannehill never had one in Miami and only 2.5 years with Brown.

Another notable insight is that Tannehill may not be a yardage fiend as a passer, but he's capable of spreading the wealth. Give Tannehill time, and he finds second and third options. Although he takes more sacks than the best quarterbacks in the league, and his 2013 season was among the 12 all-time worst in sacks taken, Tannehill can buy time and provide a running dimension of value in the red zone.

The collective talents of Burks, Hopkins, Okonkwo, and Henry gives Tannehill the best quartet of match-up weapons he's ever had. All three receivers can win one-on-one in at least 2-3 areas of the field.

Their skills will stretch the field in multiple dimensions, generate more coverage breaks that lead to big plays, and force opposing defenses to react at the line of scrimmage in ways that give Tannehill more tells pre-snap and early post-snap.

If the Titans had a strong offensive line, there would be a greater inclination to project production that puts Tannehill's value among the top 10 fantasy passers. His current ADP is QB32, and he isn't getting drafted in many leagues.

The addition of Hopkins generates a compelling trio of receivers that, even with a young offensive line, Tannehill should deliver overall production that approaches the range of value we've seen from his three best seasons as a pro. I'm projecting 3,989 yards from scrimmage and 36 total touchdowns, which is good enough for QB15 on my board.

Ceiling: QB8-QB12 if other NFL passers can't stay healthy, the trio of Titans receivers stay healthy, and one of Burks, Okonkwo, or Hopkins delivers above expectation.

Median: QB13-QB17 if the Titans offense performs to expectation.

Floor: QB18-QB22 if the Titans' performers can't stay healthy.

Recommendation: In leagues that start one quarterback, I often like taking a pair of quarterbacks in the range of rounds 9-12. One is usually a veteran with a compelling offense and a history of top-five fantasy production. The other is a young passer with a stratospheric ceiling.

In Super-Flex formats, I'll often take an elite prospect early and wait until at least 20 passers are gone to take a player like Tannehill.