Underdog Pick 'Em Week 10

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

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Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 9 Review

Overall Picks (14-11 on the week, 65-53-1 on the season)
Overall Units (+6 last week, +18 Units on the season)

(4-0, + 9 Units) Commanders-Patriots 10X: For the second straight week, we hit on a Pick 'Em centered around the Commanders passing offense. Sam Howell (241.5) blew past his passing yardage prop with 325 yards. Terry McLaurin (58.5) and Jahan Dotson (41.5) also easily landed on the Higher side, with 73 and 69 yards, respectively. We brought it back by going Higher on Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving yards (21.5), and he came through with 42 receiving yards.

(3-1, -1 Unit) Bengals-Bills 10X: This one was frustratingly close to hitting. Joe Burrow (264.5) blew past his passing yardage prop with 348 passing yards. We went Higher on Tee Higgins' receptions (4.0), and he finished with eight catches. We nearly hit all three of our Bengals picks, but Ja'Marr Chase (86.5) couldn't haul in a deep ball from Joe Burrow and injured his back on the play. We brought it back with Dalton Kincaid (37.5), who easily landed Higher, with 81 receiving yards.

(3-2, -1 Unit) Cowboys-Eagles 20X: This was another narrow miss. The Cowboys side absolutely smashed. Dak Prescott (248.5) threw for 374 yards. CeeDee Lamb (73.5) had 191 receiving yards. If any of the number of deep shots to A.J. Brown had been completed, this would have been a 20X win. DeVonta Smith (48.5) had 51 receiving yards. A.J. Brown (82.5) came up just short with 66 receiving yards, and Jalen Hurts (250.5) also came up short with 207 passing yards.

(0-4, -1 Unit) Colts-Panthers 10X: This was our lone swing and miss of the week, though at least it ended up showing strong correlation. It was doomed from the start. Josh Downs re-injured his knee after playing just 12 snaps. Jonathan Taylor (64.5) managed just 47 rushing yards on 18 carries. The Panthers passing game with Bryce Young and Adam Thielen failed to build momentum after a solid outing against the Texans.

Lessons learned: We were close to a huge week. Long catches at any point from A.J. Brown and Ja'Marr Chase would have led to a +36 unit week. Instead, we settle for another +6 week and keep chugging along.

Week 10 Picks

As the saying goes, "If it ain't broke…" We have been running hot on same-game Pick 'Ems with all selections Higher or all selections Lower. By taking advantage of same-game correlations, we are able to tilt the odds back in our favor.

Packers-Steelers 10X

Aaron Jones

Higher than 53.5 Rushing Yards

• Jones looks fully healthy for the first time since a Week 1 injury. He played a season-high 41 snaps (57%) last week against the Rams. He also carried the ball 20 times for 73 yards.
• Since 2021, Jones has topped 54 rushing yards in 14-of-23 games (60.8%) in which he played over 55% of snaps.
• The Steelers allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (112.6) to opposing running backs.

Aaron Jones had 99 yards and a touchdown, in his healthiest (and best) game this season, propelling the Packers to a needed win over the Rams. https://t.co/cXC2mIC1rn

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) November 6, 2023

Kenny Pickett

Higher than 204.5 Passing Yards

Pickett has had to leave two games early this season due to injuries. In his six full games, he has thrown for at least 220 yards in five of six (83.3%).

Najee Harris

Higher than 8.5 Receiving Yards

• Harris has 12 targets over the past three games and has averaged 21.7 receiving yards per game over that stretch.
• Over 42 career games, he has averaged 19.0 receiving yards per game.

George Pickens

Higher than 42.5 Receiving Yards

• In Pickett's six full games, Pickens has had more than 42.5 receiving yards in four of them. To put it differently, the duo has combined to hit this passing/receiving prop 66.7% of the time.
• There is a "squeaky wheel" narrative here. Pickens has been extremely frustrated with his lack of targets over the last two weeks. Pickens is arguably the most talented player on the Steelers offense. Pickett and offensive coordinator Matt Canada have to get him more involved this week, or there is a risk this situation will turn toxic.

Matt Canada on George Pickens: We can't let him just be minimized completely. https://t.co/johdS80uRB

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 10, 2023