Underdog Pick 'Em Week 12

Photo: Jim Brown, USA Today Sports

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Underdog's Fantasy Pick 'Em is a fun way to test our predictive abilities against the market. The two keys to success are selecting the best players to target and leveraging correlations to improve our odds. You play Pick 'Em by simply choosing 'Higher' or 'Lower' on at least two player props. If you make the right selection, here's the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 11 Review

Overall Picks (8-9 on the week, 81-67-1 on the season)
Overall Units (-4 last week, +21 Units on the season)

(-1 Unit, 3-1) Texans-Cardinals 10X C.J. Stroud (267.5) easily eclipsed his passing yardage prop, with 336 yards. Tank Dell (58.5) destroyed his receiving yardage prop with 149 yards. Unfortunately, Dell's dominant day may have eaten into Dalton Schultz's (50.5) receiving production, as he fell short with 32 yards. James Conner (56.5) went over his rushing yard total, with 62 yards. This feels like it was the right play. Stroud put up the highest yardage total of the week, and Dell was second among all receivers in yardage.

(-1 Unit, 1-3) Bears-Lions 10X The belief was that the Bears-Lions game had the potential for offensive fireworks, and it played out that way. It was a wild 31-26 shootout. Unfortunately, despite the high score and plenty of offense, the game script did not go as hoped. Justin Fields (210.5 passing yards) did much of his damage on the ground (104 rushing yards), in part because the Bears jumped out to a big lead. He threw for just 169 yards on only 23 pass attempts. DJ Moore (64.5) still easily hit his receiving yardage over, 96 yards. Darnell Mooney (26.5) came up just short, with 24 yards. With the Lions trailing, Jahmyr Gibbs (41.5) came up just short of his rushing yardage prop with 36 yards.

(-1 Unit, 2-2) Giants-Commanders 10X On the Giants side, we had Saquon Barkley (17.5) receiving yards. He hit the over almost instantly and finished with 57 receiving yards. Sam Howell (245.5) hit on his passing yardage over, with 255 through the air. We just missed on whom the yards would go to. Terry McLauring (58.5) had 43 yards, and Jahan Dotson (35.5) had 23.

(-1 Unit, 2-3) Cowboys-Panthers 20X The idea was that there was a decent chance the Panthers would sell out to stop the run, and the Cowboys would need to throw the ball to win. It didn't play out that way. Dak Prescott (261.5) came up well short of his passing yardage prop, with 189 yards. Jake Ferguson (3.5) came up one short on receptions with three. Brandin Cooks (35.5) did hit his receiving yardage total, with 42 yards. Tony Pollard scored his touchdown. Bryce Young (2.5) had two rushing attempts.

Lessons learned: The long streak of hitting on at least one Pick 'Em each week came to a close. It happens when you are picking only three or four plays each week at 10X or 20X odds. The one takeaway is that there is no need to force it to always get to 10X. 6X is just fine every so often. I felt strongly about C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell and forced a second Texans pass catcher in to get a fourth play.

Week 12 Picks

As noted in the Week 11 review, the biggest takeaway from last week was to not force a fourth player into a Pick 'Em that works best as a three-man 6X. Unlike the last few weeks, when all recommended entries were at least 10X, we have a pair of 6X Pick 'Ems this week. The plan remains targeted correlated Higher picks within the same game. This has been, by far, our most successful strategy this season.

Eagles-Bills 10X

This Pick 'Em is a strong correlation play targeting the Bills passing offense. In what is almost a must-win game for Buffalo's chances of making the playoffs, everything is riding on the passing game. Opposing offenses have a passing rate of 69.7% against Philadelphia. You cannot run on the Eagles, but they have been very vulnerable against the pass. There is not a bigger pass funnel defense in the NFL. If the Bills offense has success through the air, it also increases the chances that the Eagles will be less pass-heavy and that a higher percentage of D'Andre Swift's production will come through the air versus on the ground.

Josh Allen

Higher than 260.5 Passing Yards

• The early returns on the Bills offensive coordinator change are positive. The Bills cruised to an easy 32-6 win over the Jets, and Allen threw for 275 yards despite the Bills going conservative offensively in the second half.
• The Eagles did hold Patrick Mahomes II in check last week (with an assist from his receivers). However, in the two previous games, Philadelphia gave up 374 passing yards to Dak Prescott and 297 passing yards to Sam Howell. Overall, the Eagles have given up 290-plus passing yards in half of their games this season.

"I feel like I'm f****** back."
-- John Wick
--- Josh Allen

Movie quote or not, the #Bills QB looked more like himself last game.#BillsMafia @BuffaloPlus pic.twitter.com/2QPGQ9gAkw

— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) November 22, 2023

**

Stefon Diggs

Higher than 75.5 Receiving Yards

• Diggs is tied for the NFL lead in targets this season (108). However, he has been mired in a bit of a slump. After topping 100 receiving yards in five of six games to start the season, he has gone five straight with less than 100 yards. This just feels like a get-right spot.
• Diggs saw a lot of shutdown corners, Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain, in the last two weeks. The Eagles do not have anyone at that level.
• Elite wide receivers have consistently torched this Philadelphia secondary. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 191 yards. Cooper Kupp had 8 catches for 118 yards. Justin Jefferson had 11 catches for 159 yards. Tyreek Hill had 11 catches for 88 yards.

Dalton Kincaid

Higher than 49.5 Receiving Yards

• Kincaid has been incredibly efficient this season. His success rate of 66% ranks fourth in the entire NFL amongst all pass catchers with at least 40 targets this season. His catch percentage (88%) ranks second in the league (behind only Rachaad White). Among all wide receivers and tight ends with 40-plus targets, Kincaid's 88% catch rate is 8% higher than anyone else in the league.
• Since the Dawson Knox injury, Kincaid has averaged 6.8 catches and 63.6 receiving yards per game. He has at least 50 receiving yards in four of five games. The only time he did not top 50 yards was last week when the Bills jumped out to a huge early lead.

D'Andre Swift

Higher than 15.5 Receiving Yards

• Over his last seven games, Swift has averaged 4.0 catches for 26.1 yards per game.
• He has at least 23 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
• The Bills have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (545).

On Monday night #eagles RB D'Andre Swift looked like the RB from the start of the season. That's important for Philly. It was because of a couple reasons. Here they are in my report on The Insiders. pic.twitter.com/aNQtTiaDw3

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 22, 2023