FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 17

Week 17 offers a fun nine-game slate filled with high-upside plays and plenty of strategic decisions, especially as injuries, weather, and playoff implications create a unique landscape. With some key offenses missing stars and others fighting to stay in the playoff race, finding value across all positions will be essential to building winning lineups. Teams like the Colts, Raiders, and Buccaneers stand out for their favorable matchups.

Quarterback and running back options are particularly intriguing this week. Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield headline a top-heavy quarterback pool, with Daniels offering a mix of value and upside in a prime matchup against the Falcons. At running back, depth reigns supreme, with nearly a dozen backs capable of leading the slate in scoring. Players like Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, and Breece Hall bring strong floors and tournament-winning ceilings, while value plays such as Tyjae Spears and Raheem Blackshear add flexibility to build balanced lineups.

At wide receiver and tight end, there are exciting opportunities to take advantage of emerging stars and value plays. Brian Thomas Jr. leads the charge among rookie breakouts, offering WR1 usage at a discount, while veterans like Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson anchor premium builds. Tight end strategies revolve around Brock Bowers, who is poised to break rookie records, but mid-priced options like T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Kincaid provide strong alternatives. With defenses like the Raiders and Miami offering paths to capitalize on turnover-prone offenses, this slate is packed with opportunities to differentiate your lineups and secure big wins.

Updated Slate Overview

Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start with a big-picture view of the Week 17 FanDuel Main Slate. I focus on three big-picture items each week:

1. Overall implied team totals and spreads.
2. How these implied team totals compare to each team's season-to-date average and which teams are projected to score more than normal.
3. Percent-rostered projections at the team level within the context of implied team totals.

Implied Team Totals

In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total and how much they are favored by. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams. 

Adding the lines connecting each team's implied team totals is a great way to visualize overall game totals. The higher the line, the more points are expected in the game. On this nine-game slate, there is a clear separation between the top four games and the rest. Let's quickly highlight those top four matchups in order of total points:

• Packers-Vikings: The saying "good offense beats good defense" will be put to the test in this clash between two excellent teams that are strong on both sides of the ball. Deciding whether we think this game turns into a shootout is one of the first big strategical decisions we have to make. 

• Panthers-Buccaneers: To my eye, this looks like the most likely shootout on the slate. Both teams have defensive injuries that opposing offenses have exploited. Carolina is equally vulnerable on the ground and through the air, so deciding whether to target Bucky Irving and the rushing attack or Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and the passing game more heavily will be a key decision point. On the other side, Tampa Bay's biggest weakness is against the pass. Can we trust Bryce Young to stay hot? More pressure will be on Young and the passing attack with Chuba Hubbard sidelined.

• Falcons-Commanders: Michael Penix Jr. performed much better than the numbers indicated in his first NFL start last week. Atlanta didn't need much from him in their blowout win, thanks to a dominant defensive performance. However, much more will be required in Week 17 against Jayden Daniels and the high-scoring Commanders.

• Jets-Bills: We know the Bills' offense will deliver, but the question is whether the Jets can score enough to unlock the ceilings of Josh Allen, James Cook, and other top Buffalo stars.

Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 17 ("Week 17 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

One of the most notable aspects of this smaller-than-usual main slate is the limited number of teams expected to outscore their season-to-date averages. Additionally, the few teams with positive scoring boosts only have marginal increases, making this a challenging slate for high-scoring fantasy options.

The teams that stand out are:

1. Colts: Jonathan Taylor was the fantasy star of Week 16, and he has another chance to be impactful in Week 17 with a prime matchup against the Giants. The Colts are the only team on the slate with an implied team total above 22 and a positive Week 17 scoring boost.

2. Raiders: Las Vegas stands out primarily because it signals a better-than-average opportunity for star rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who has been stellar this season and could be poised for another big performance.

Percent Rostered by Team

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.

Quarterback

The table below shows the current Top 10 quarterbacks based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:

Pickings are slim this week at quarterback. If Anthony Richardson is out, there will be only three quarterbacks priced above $8,000: Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield. These three are also the best tournament options at the position. Allen and Daniels offer huge rushing upside and have been putting up massive passing stats over the past month. Mayfield has sneaky rushing potential, but we're primarily playing him for the chance he throws for 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns. With so few viable options, expect each of these "Big 3" quarterbacks to be highly popular on this slate.

My favorite of the bunch—and the quarterback who will feature on most of my tournament rosters—is Jayden Daniels. The Falcons defense gives up the sixth-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing quarterbacks this season (+1.8 PPG). Daniels has been on an absolute heater and is brimming with confidence after dissecting the Eagles, the best defense in the NFL, for five touchdowns last week. Daniels is underpriced and should be above $9K. With tight pricing on this slate, the $600 discount from Allen to Daniels makes a real difference in roster flexibility.

After back-to-back monster games in which he averaged over 400 total yards and combined for 2.5 passing and 2.65 rushing touchdowns per game, Allen cooled off in freezing temperatures against the Patriots last week. The Jets offense is good enough to push Allen, and that's when he performs best in fantasy. From a narrative perspective, there's a sense the Bills would relish the opportunity to run up the score on their division rival.

The Panthers mostly kept Baker Mayfield in check in their Week 13 matchup, but Mayfield has been red hot since. Over the last three weeks, Mayfield has averaged 295.3 passing yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game. He's a strong option for tournaments if you believe Carolina won't repeat their earlier defensive success.

If you're looking to save money at quarterback, two young players stand out. Bryce Young looks like a completely different quarterback since his early-season benching. His confidence and poise grow with each game, culminating in one of the best performances of his career last week in an upset win over the Cardinals. Over the last two weeks, Young has rushed for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns, adding another layer to his fantasy upside. The Buccaneers defense is a pass funnel, forcing teams to attack through the air. Tampa Bay gives up the second-most PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks (+3.9). Michael Penix Jr.. is in a strong spot against the Commanders in a game with shootout potential. In his debut, Penix flashed playmaking ability and downfield aggression before conservative play-calling took over late. He has affordable, high-upside stacking options in Drake London and Darnell Mooney, making him a great value for tournaments.