Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to identify the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations to help you identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much the team is favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
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The Rams-Lions matchup carries the highest total of the week, with Los Angeles projected for 30.5 points in a game that looks like a true shootout. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua have excellent individual matchups, and the Lions' key players have been producing even in more difficult spots.
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Bengals-Ravens sits as the second-highest total and has real shootout potential. Baltimore and Cincinnati played two thrillers last season, and the meeting two weeks ago could have been similar if not for Baltimore's turnovers. Lamar Jackson, one of his tight ends, and Ja'Marr Chase form one of the most appealing tournament stacks on the slate.
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San Francisco, Seattle, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Houston are all heavy favorites with strong team totals. Christian McCaffrey, Ken Walker III, Travis Etienne Jr., Saquon Barkley, and Woody Marks all project well if their teams control game flow as expected.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers with its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 15 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
The Week 15 slate has some very clear spots to target. These should simplify cash-game decisions and create some chalky GPP plays even on a large 13-game slate. Here are some teams with matchups to target:
- San Francisco: The 49ers have a 21 percent scoring boost against a Tennessee defense that has struggled all season. The Titans were dragged into a shootout by the Browns last week, which does not inspire confidence in their ability to slow a San Francisco offense that comes in healthy off a bye. The matchup sets up well for Christian McCaffrey against a defense that allows the fourth-most points above expectation to running backs. The 49ers' top pass catchers are also priced affordably.
- New Orleans: The Saints get a 20 percent scoring boost in a rematch of a game they controlled from start to finish in Week 10. In that meeting, Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal combined for 146 total yards. Carolina has since allowed 150 or more total yards and an average of two touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. Keep an eye on the status of Alvin Kamara. If he misses, Devin Neal becomes very interesting after handling 83 percent of the carries and running a route on 75 percent of Tyler Shough's drop-backs last week.
- Baltimore: Lamar Jackson has not played to his usual standard, but he has historically dominated the Bengals defense and is priced lower than usual. The 2025 Bengals defense has been one of the weakest in recent memory. This matchup has the potential to resemble last week's back-and-forth 39-34 Bengals-Bills game.
- Houston: The Texans are on a five-game winning streak and are heavy home favorites. They have rushed for at least 100 yards in each of their four home wins this season. Woody Marks handled a career-high 26 carries last week against the Chiefs and should again be heavily involved.
- Philadelphia: The Eagles have dropped three straight, but they get a clear "get right" opportunity against a Raiders defense that is allowing 2.3 FanDuel points per game above expectation to running backs. Saquon Barkley finally broke a long run last week and is positioned to stay hot in Week 15.