The Footballguys Showdown Optimizer
The Showdown Optimizer makes it easy to create your own lineup for this game.
The Week 14 Thursday Showdown
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5x salary and earns 1.5x points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
A week after Thanksgiving, when Dallas and Detroit traditionally trade turkey for football, we get those same two teams under the lights in the Motor City. Detroit enters on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Green Bay as both teams chase the surprise Bears for control of the NFC North. Dallas, meanwhile, used their Week 10 bye to reset their season and has rattled off three straight wins, including high-profile victories over Philadelphia and Kansas City. The catalyst isn’t entirely clear, but adding Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson at the trade deadline has tightened up some glaring issues on their defense. Even so, Vegas still leans toward Detroit in a high-scoring matchup, projecting a narrow Lions win around 29–26.
At 6-5-1, the Cowboys have a slim, but real, path to a Wild Card spot that likely requires them to win out. Motivation isn’t the problem; consistency is. Their defense has improved, but in their two most recent wins, they allowed 49 combined points, and now they face the league’s #3 offense on the road in a game Detroit needs just as badly. The Lions sit at 7-5 and can’t afford another home loss if they want to keep pace in a tight division race. Their challenge is obvious: the receiving corps is bruised, and if Amon-Ra St. Brown can’t go, this offense becomes far more predictable and reliant on its backfield.
For DFS roster construction, the starting point leans toward Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' receivers because no defense has consistently slowed the Dallas passing game this season. Detroit, by contrast, is far more likely to lean on their backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to shorten the game, control possession, and protect a depleted receiver room. The issue is whether they can actually do it--Dallas’ run defense has stiffened since the trade deadline, and recent examples like Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt suggest that Gibbs and Montgomery could face real resistance between the tackles.
The net effect tilts roster builds slightly toward Dallas. A 3-3 or 4-2 Cowboys-slanted construction makes sense in lineups built around the idea that Dallas can keep Detroit’s run game in check and force a lower scoring script than oddsmakers expect. Projection: Cowboys 27, Lions 20.
Injury Roundup
Dallas’ injury situation could certainly be worse—they’ll be without only two players on Thursday night. On offense, Tyler Guyton will miss this game, so backup lineman Nate Thomas will draw his second straight start in Guyton’s place. On defense, Trevon Diggs remains out following the unusual home accident he suffered back in Week 7. Dallas’ secondary is clearly stronger with him available, but his extended absence means it doesn’t materially shift our analysis of this matchup.
Detroit enters this one with a cluster of issues in the receiving corps. Sam LaPorta was lost for the season several weeks ago due to a back injury, which initially pushed Brock Wright into an expanded role. Wright then suffered a neck injury that kept him out last week, and he has already been ruled out again for Thursday, leaving Ross Dwelley in line for his second consecutive start. At wide receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) looks like a true game-time decision, while Kalif Raymond has already been ruled out with an ankle injury. That combination pushes Jameson Williams into a high-volume, high-leverage role by default. On defense, Detroit will again be without safety Kerby Joseph, who hasn’t played in two months. Because the Lions have already been operating without him for weeks, his absence has little impact on our DFS interpretation of the slate.
Captain Considerations
Cowboys Showdown Players
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (CPT or FLEX)
A must-play option on this one-game slate, Dak Prescott has topped 20+ DraftKings points in eight different games this season. With an implied team total of 26 points and full control of a surging Dallas offense, Prescott should be one of the first names you click when building Showdown rosters on Thursday night. The matchup only strengthens the case: Detroit allows the fourth-most fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks and is coming off consecutive weeks where Jordan Love threw four touchdowns and Jameis Winston posted 366 passing yards. Combine that with Detroit’s elite run defense and you have a clear pass funnel that points directly toward a big night for Prescott and the Cowboys’ receivers. DFS Takeaway: Prescott profiles as one of the highest-floor, highest-ceiling plays on the slate and should anchor the majority of roster constructions. In most gamescripts—shootouts, neutral scripts, or Dallas-ahead builds—he is either optimal or close to it.