Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
The Rollercoaster Keeps Rollercoastering
The wild ride that is the 2025 NFL season continues, with every week delivering both surprisingly great and terribly disappointing outcomes. For every player falling short of our expectations, another rises to fill the void. For every injury, somebody gains an opportunity.
Any fantasy managers who didn't already know that predicting the NFL future is tricky business heading into the season know it now.
But even with volatility adding to the degree of difficulty, those who are paying close attention can gain ground. Let's break down what happened in Week 6 and get a feel for some possible Week 7 outcomes.
Let's dive in . . .
Atlanta Joins The Chat
If variance is the desired outcome in the NFL, the Falcons are an example of just how successful the league has been in that endeavor.
In Week 3, they were shut out by the Panthers.
Two weeks later, they beat the Bills 24-14 on Monday Night Football.
It was a big night. The Falcons' 335 yards in the first half were their most before halftime since 2009.
But it raises the question: Which version of the Falcons should we expect any given week?
Michael Penix Jr., who played on a Monday night for the first time in his career, believes he and his team made a strong statement against the Bills.
Penix threw for 250 yards and a touchdown, and the Falcons moved their record to 3-2 on the season. In an on-field interview with the team's website after the game, Penix said that it also showed that the Falcons are "here and here to stay," which was a sentiment he returned to during his postgame press conference.
"It showed that we're one of the ones," Penix said. "This team is really good. This team is really legit."
But the record suggests there's work to do . . .
Room To Grow
Penix claims the Falcons' offense still has yet to show its potential.
"I feel like we have more in the tank and for us to go out there and win that football game with the second half like that, I feel like we had a big lull," Penix said. "I feel like it is going to be a scary sight whenever we figure it out and all play together and play a full game and not just one good half."
To that point, Atlanta led 21-7 at halftime Monday night and scored only three points in the second half.
And that brings up another issue.
As ESPN.com's Marc Raimondi suggested, as good as the offense looked, the defense might have been better. Atlanta leads the league in yards allowed per game (253.4) and is second in the NFL in yards gained per game (378.8).
Of course, teams with great defenses often take their foot off the gas on offense thanks to positive game scripts.
But the Falcons' top skill players should remain relevant, because . . .
It's a Funnel
We know where the ball is going.
On Monday night, the Falcons were without two of their top three wide receivers in Darnell Mooney (hamstring) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (healthy scratch).
McCloud's absence was a surprise, but did it matter?
Bijan Robinson and Drake London combined for 89 percent of the team's yardage in the first half and came in with the highest percentage of their team's scrimmage yardage (57 percent) of any duo in the NFL.
For the first time in Falcons franchise history, the team had a running back and wide receiver -- Robinson and London, respectively -- eclipse the 100-yard mark in the first half.
Also, both finished the week as the top fantasy scorers at their respective positions.
Robinson was RB1 overall with 35.8 points. London was WR1 with 31.8 points.
That's impressive.
And even if there's room for Tyler Allgeier and Kyle Pitts Sr. to pop onto our radars, fantasy investors don't want to be in a position to have to rely on any Falcons not named Robinson and London . . .
The Year Of Bijan?
As NFL.com's Nick Shook suggested, if 2024 was the year of Saquon Barkley, Robinson is doing his best to make 2025 his.
"The dynamic, explosive running back dominated on Monday night," Shook wrote, "ripping off an 81-yard touchdown run that required him to precisely knife through the first level of Buffalo's defense and break a tackle downfield before reaching the end zone on the roof-exploding romp to pay dirt."
Robinson finished with 170 rushing yards on 19 carries, tying a single-game high, and played a key role in the passing game, adding six catches for 68 yards. He logged the most scrimmage yards (238) by a Falcons running back in a single game in franchise history.
On Wednesday, he was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week in recognition of his performance. It's the first time that Robinson has ever taken that prize.
But it's worth noting Robinson came in leading the league in yards from scrimmage per game (146). And through five games, he's already tallied 450 rushing and 300 receiving yards -- a feat only matched by Thurman Thomas in 1991.
Robinson currently sits at RB3 in total points on the season, but he's RB1 overall in points per game with 24.8.
"He's the best player in football," head coach Raheem Morris said of Robinson. "I've said it multiple times, I can't say it enough. You can always have your pick. You can always go out there and figure out who you want to vote for, but in my opinion, he's the best player in football."
Even if you disagree with Morris, Robinson is on quite a run to start the season and is making a strong case to be considered the best running back in the NFL . . .
Dowdle Would Like A Word
As impressive as Robinson's Monday night performance was, Carolina running back Rico Dowdle's 239 scrimmage yards topped Robinson and were the most by a player in a game versus a former team in NFL history.
His 473 scrimmage yards the past two games smashed the team's two-game record of 416 held by Christian McCaffrey and helped Carolina reach the .500 mark for the first time since it was 5-5 in Week 10 of 2021.
Dowdle has more scrimmage yards over that two-game span than Saquon Barkley has all season (462).
He became the first undrafted player since 1970 to compile at least 200 scrimmage yards in consecutive games, as well as the first player in the entire NFL to post consecutive 200-plus scrimmage yard games since Dalvin Cook did so for Minnesota in Weeks 8 and 9 in November of 2020.
And he finished the week as fantasy's RB2 with 33.9 points.
In case you missed it, Dowdle warned his former Cowboys teammates to buckle their chinstraps heading into last Sunday's game.
He followed through by breaking them.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra wrote, "Dowdle blasted through the Dallas defense over and over and over and over. Seemingly every time he touched the ball, especially early, it was a chunk gain. Eight yards here, 12 there, 15 here, 7 there. The bulldozer rocketed for 183 rushing yards on a career-high 30 carries."
He also led the Panthers with four catches on five targets for 56 yards and two touchdowns.
Carolina will travel to the Meadowlands in Week 7, taking on a Jets defense that gave up 78 rushing yards on 26 attempts versus the Broncos in London. And, as ESPN's Liz Loza suggested, Dowdle might have gained control of the backfield's top spot even if Hubbard is healthy enough to suit up . . .
The Easy Way
It could be a straightforward call -- depending on Chuba Hubbard's health.
Assuming Hubbard remains sidelined, Dowdle projects as a top-15 fantasy play at the position.
According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, Dowdle took an even higher percentage of Carolina's offensive snaps this week than he did against the Dolphins in Week 5. He took his third-down snaps back and played over 90 percent of the offensive snaps on early downs.
But if Hubbard returns, Jahnke doesn't believe Dowdle's big games necessarily mean he will remain the lead guy . . .
The Case For Hubbard
"Hubbard was the more effective runner over the first four weeks," Jahnke explained, adding that Hubbard was "averaging more yards per carry, more yards after contact per carry, a better first-down rate and a higher rate of gaining five or more yards."
Jahnke went on to note that Hubbard was RB15 over the first four weeks, despite facing the Falcons and Patriots during that stretch, two top-five teams at preventing fantasy points to running backs. These last two weeks, the Panthers have played two top-six teams in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Fair points.
But should we really expect the backfield to be a 50-50 split if Hubbard returns?
The Case For Dowdle
Footballguy Dave Kluge makes a strong case that we shouldn't in this week's Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings.
"Despite just two starts, Dowdle is third in the NFL in rushing," Kluge wrote. "He's accumulated 230-plus scrimmage yards in back-to-back weeks. The only other running backs to do that since 1970: Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, Deuce McAllister, and Le'Veon Bell."
It's entirely possible, maybe even likely, that Dowdle takes over as the lead back. But barring a trade, Hubbard isn't going away.
There's going to be a split -- perhaps the opposite of what we saw early in the season, when Hubbard got the bulk of the work with Dowdle rotating in every third series.
Fantasy Takeaway
For now, I'm still ranking and playing Dowdle ahead of Hubbard until circumstances make me stop.
But there is another answer here. For most of us, Dowdle is found money. He was either a late-round draft pick or a free-agent pickup. If you have weaknesses at other positions and your running back depth is solid enough, you won't find a better sell-high option.
Conversely, Hubbard is a fine buy-low candidate . . .
One and Done? Or More to Come?
As The Athletic's Daniel Popper reminded readers, six weeks ago, Kimani Vidal's NFL future was uncertain.
The Chargers had left the second-year running back off their initial 53-man roster on cutdown day in late August. They signed Najee Harris in free agency. They drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round. Veteran Hassan Haskins provided more special teams value.
And so Vidal, one year after being drafted by the Chargers in the sixth round, was the odd man out at the position. Vidal had rushed for 2.76 yards per carry on 25 attempts in three preseason games.
He missed the final preseason game with an injury . . .