Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Targets Of Opportunity
Much like the NFL, fantasy football outcomes are often determined by who best takes advantage of sudden, unexpected opportunities. And no other position offers targets of opportunity like running back. It's a position of great importance to NFL offenses, and a position of scarcity from the fantasy perspective.
These opportunities can be like found money for fantasy managers -- when they're able to cash in on them.
This week, we're going to take a look at some running backs of interest. A rising star, some players making the most of injuries to teammates, one who fell a bit short this week but remains high on our radars, and a couple who get their chance to join the ranks of sudden success stories at the position . . .
Fully In Command
Through five weeks, one of the league's most effective rookies has been Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt -- who may be better known by his simple nickname, "Bill."
A seventh-round pick in this year's draft, Croskey-Merritt was good enough in the offseason program, training camp, and preseason that Washington felt comfortable trading Brian Robinson Jr. to the 49ers in August.
Few players generated the kind of buzz Croskey-Merritt did this summer. Posts like this were the norm:
There's just something about Jacory Croskey-Merritt...
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) July 25, 2025
I have a feeling the Commanders rookie RB is going to be special.
He jumps off the screen.
Explosive
Runs violently
Fast feet
👀👀 pic.twitter.com/NeHxRXniJh
When Robinson was traded, the hype went off the charts.
Right after the trade, I talked to Ben Standig, the Commanders beat writer, who said just before the deal that "Robinson is likely on his way out."
Standig told me at the time he believed Croskey-Merritt was the most likely candidate to serve as the lead back.
We all felt the same . . .
So What Took So Long?
Nonetheless, the Commanders maintained some semblance of backfield parity the first four games, divvying up the carries between Austin Ekeler, Croskey-Merritt, and Jeremy McNichols. When Ekeler was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 2, Chris Rodriguez Jr. joined the rotation.
But Sunday was a breakthrough for Croskey-Merritt, who did more as a runner (111 yards) and receiver (39) than he had to this point. His two TDs and a brilliant 27-yard run in the third quarter helped the Commanders wrest back control of the game.
Head coach Dan Quinn told reporters in his Monday press conference that the Commanders elected to lean into aspects of their scheme in which Croskey-Merritt excelled, and the young running back had a strong week of practice.
"Because of that, we thought, this is some time for him to earn some more," Quinn said. "So, I think it really came from just him improving in the system and then having a great week to go into it."
Perhaps most impressively, he had that production with 16 touches on just 28 offensive snaps.
That's been his story to date.
Though he's had limited carries in the first five weeks, Croskey-Merritt leads the league with 6.6 yards per carry. He's tallied 283 yards rushing with four touchdowns and caught five passes for 54 yards.
Room For More
The question for fantasy investors is whether Croskey-Merritt can continue to deliver like he did in Los Angeles.
According to Footballguy Matt Waldman, the speed of the game is no problem for Croskey-Merritt because he's solving problems that many rookies don't solve well. And that's not lost on Quinn and the Commanders.
"I'm not putting a limit or a play count on it," head coach Dan Quinn said. "But as we keep working . . . We're just not backing off on that and we think there's a lot of upside and a high ceiling for him."
Croskey-Merritt proved that in Los Angeles, against a Chargers defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season . . .
Locked Into Featured Role?
If you're worried that McNichols and Rodriguez will be limiting factors, we have the evidence necessary to allay that concern.
Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason charted Croskey-Merritt's snap shares/running back rushing shares by week:
- 1: 29%/50%
- 2: 23%/33%
- 3: 39%/35%
- 4: 34%/44%
- 5: 48%/70%
That 70 percent share of the running back carries against the Chargers is a number that will satisfy fantasy managers. But can we trust it?
The Turning Point
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm explained, the most interesting aspect of Sunday's game came when Croskey-Merritt fumbled on the first play of the fourth quarter, giving the Chargers life when it looked like they were on the ropes. It would have been easy for Quinn to shift away from a seventh-round pick in his fifth game as a pro.
But they didn't.
Instead, they fed him more.
Protecting a 20-10 lead, Croskey-Merritt had runs of 10, 9, and 15 yards to close out the game.
That was a defining moment. This is Bill's backfield . . .
The Forecast
Considering what Croskey-Merritt did to the Chargers -- he finished as RB4 for the week with 29 fantasy points -- Waldman believes this rookie looks ready to emerge as a top-15 back. "If he earns 15-17 touches per game," Waldman added, "he could have top-10 value."
That fits both the immediate future and the rest-of-season outlook . . .
No Dawdling
Rico Dowdle signed with the Panthers in free agency this offseason, leaving the Cowboys after his first 1,000-yard season in 2024. The Panthers running back faces them in Week 6, coming off a 200-yard game.
He's ready. Are they?
Dowdle had only 83 yards on 28 carries in the first four games, serving as Chuba Hubbard's backup.
Hubbard missed Sunday's game against the Dolphins with a calf injury, and Dowdle rushed for a career-high 206 yards and scored a touchdown on 23 carries.
In addition to being named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance, Dowdle tied Jonathan Stewart (2009) for the second-most yards in a game in team history. Were it not for late-game calf cramps that had Dowdle drinking pickle juice and anything else he could to get back on the field, he believes DeAngelo Williams' record of 210 yards in 2012 would have fallen.
"If I didn't leave with cramps, I definitely would have gotten it," Dowdle said.
As ESPN.com's David Newton noted, the fact that Dowdle was facing one of the league's worst run defenses -- the Dolphins were allowing 158 yards a game -- helped. That coach Dave Canales didn't give up on the running game as coaches often do down 17-0 didn't hurt, either.
But let's not overlook Dowdle's efforts here.
He had 100 yards after contact, also a career high. His 53-yard run in the third quarter with Carolina trailing 17-10 was the team's longest play from scrimmage this season. He had a 43-yard effort in the fourth quarter to set up his 1-yard touchdown run that gave Carolina its first lead, 20-17, with 6:10 remaining.
That's when the cramps became an issue, forcing Dowdle to hit the sidelines to drink some pickle juice, and forcing Canales to turn to rookie Trevor Etienne, who had four carries for 22 yards . . .
Violence Becomes Him
But Dowdle, who finished the week as the RB2 overall with 32.4 fantasy points, stole the show on a day when quarterback Bryce Young bounced back from two early turnovers that put Carolina in a hole. The Panthers overcame a 17-point deficit for only the fourth time in 117 tries.
"It's the attitude he ran with, the violence that he ran with, finishing through arm tackles, something that we've been challenging our guys on," Canales said. "When we get to that second level, have a plan for how you finish.
"I saw a great finish today out of Rico."
Hubbard's health will determine how much Dowdle gets to play against his former team, but there are indications that Hubbard's tender calf could keep him out again.
Dowdle, though, said the Cowboys better be prepared for him.
"They know I'm a violent runner," Dowdle said. "I'm looking forward to getting to the second level on them. They've just got to buckle up."
It's no coincidence that both Canales and Dowdle talked about running with violence.
It's the same word Charlotte Observer staffer Mike Kaye used when I asked him about Hubbard last year. Kaye told me the running back's "violent style of play" was exactly what the Panthers want at the position . . .
The Forecast
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke suggested after Sunday's game, it's unlikely Hubbard loses his job even after how well Dowdle played. But we could see the playing time between the two shift closer to a 50-50 split. Carolina knows it can use the two interchangeably, so we may see them leverage that more than they did before.
Long term?
The Panthers started the season with Dowdle playing every third series, but that could change with another big performance. Still, expecting Hubbard to serve as a lower-end RB2 with Dowdle being high-end flex with RB2 upside seems like a fair assessment.
This week?
There is a very good chance Dowdle plays a significant role this Sunday, as Hubbard probably won't be 100 percent if he plays at all.
Assuming he plays the lead role, Dowdle will be a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside in a revenge game against a Cowboys defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season . . .
White Bucks Up Without Irving
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving not only has a foot sprain, but he is also dealing with a shoulder subluxation that sidelined him in Seattle this past Sunday, and that's expected to sideline him for at least one more week, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The foot injury is different from the one Irving dealt with last season, coach Todd Bowles said.
Much of the Buccaneers' offense has gone through Irving in 2025, who has amassed 430 yards from scrimmage, sixth most in the NFL through Week 4. The next closest player on the Buccaneers' roster is rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, with 291.
With Irving out against Seattle, Rachaad White made good on early reports suggesting he'd get a "vast majority" of touches from the backfield.
White rushed 14 times for 41 yards and two touchdowns and caught four passes for 30 yards in the 38-35 win over the Seahawks . . .
It Should Have Been No Surprise
While the Buccaneers also have Sean Tucker, who has one carry this season but owns a career average of 5.0 yards per carry on 66 rushing attempts, White's role was exactly as expected.
White, who has started 40 regular-season games for them, was the RB4 overall just two years ago. His success came from a high-volume role. White wasn't an especially effective runner, averaging just 3.6 per carry, but he got 272 opportunities on the ground. He also caught 64 passes.
The final numbers in 2023, 1,549 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, resulted in 271.9 fantasy points.
He Picked Up Where He Left Off
White played the vast majority of the offensive snaps against the Seahawks, similar to his role in 2023.
According to Waldman, White was better than his box score, converting multiple short-yardage runs with good cutbacks in tight creases. And even if the yardage total wasn't impressive, he scored two touchdowns to deliver for fantasy managers who started him . . .
The Forecast
White should remain in fantasy lineups for as long as Irving is out -- and Graziano is reporting it looks the second-year man will miss at least this week's game against the 49ers and possibly next week's with his foot and shoulder injuries.
Assuming he gets the start again this week, White is a tail-end RB1 for our purposes . . .
Get Carter
With Trey Benson going on IR last week, Michael Carter became the leading candidate to take over on early downs. Carter did just that, taking the same role James Conner had early in the season and Benson had last week.
Carter rushed 18 times for 51 yards and a touchdown, and he added five receptions for 22 yards on his five targets.
Emari Demercado remained the third-down back, while also playing most of the two-minute drills.
Bam Knight was involved as the primary backup on early downs, as well as taking some snaps in two-minute drill situations.
Still, fantasy investors should view Carter as the primary option heading into this week's game against the Colts, especially after Demercado became the latest NFL player failing to secure the football as they crossed the goal line -- in Demercado's case at the end of a 71-yard run that might have put the game out of reach of the Titans . . .
The Forecast
Demercado flipping the ball away at the goal line -- like Colts' receiver Adonai Mitchell did in Week 4 -- was the turning point in the game, even if it's something the Cardinals get past, Demercado is not a threat to Carter's workload.
Based on usage, Jahnke believes Demercado can be dropped in most leagues. While he might catch a few passes going forward, his fantasy value isn't any better now than it was when Benson was healthy. "If anything," Jahnke wrote, "his fumble could lead to a decrease in snaps."
Consider Carter a fantasy RB2 in Week 6 -- and beyond. Based on initial timelines after his meniscus repair, Benson could miss anywhere from three to five weeks. It may take him longer than that to get back up to speed. Carter's run could last well into November . . .
Texans Saddled Up
Joe Mixon was placed on the non-football injury list with an ongoing foot/ankle issue to open camp, and there have not been many updates about either the nature of the injury or a plan to get him back on the field.
We got an update on Tuesday.
Sort of . . .
"He's making progress," general manager Nick Caserio said of Mixon. "I wouldn't put a particular timetable on it . . . Once we kinda get to that period, probably have a better sense of which way it's gonna go for the duration of the year."
Meanwhile, the Texans rank 16th in the league in rushing yards with Nick Chubb and Woody Marks leading the backfield.
Marks slowly but surely worked his way up the depth chart during the first half of the season. He was ahead of Dameon Pierce as the backup on early downs in Week 2, and Dare Ogunbowale stopped being used in most passing situations in Week 3.
The last player for him to overtake was Chubb.
In Week 4, Marks ran 17 times for 69 yards and a touchdown while catching four passes for 50 yards and another touchdown, while Chubb ran 13 times for 47 yards. The two were used interchangeably, as both running backs played some snaps on nearly every drive.
More than a few fantasy managers assumed the Marks train had left the station.
Instead, as Jahnke noted, the rotation didn't change this week, as Chubb started Sunday's win over the Ravens, and the two continued to share every drive.
Marks tended to play in passing situations, leading to Chubb being on the field more in running situations . . .
There Was A Difference
The Texans' offense had its first 40-point outing of the season, scoring a season-high 44 points against the Ravens. Everything was working for Houston: C.J. Stroud threw four touchdowns with three in the first half (a career first), and the running game totaled 167 yards.
As a result, Chubb was the one making big plays this week, including a 27-yard touchdown run. He rushed for 61 yards on 11 carries with one touchdown, generating +33 rushing yards over expected. This marks his highest RYOE output this season and his most since Week 17, 2022. Marks ran seven times for 24 yards.
So part of the problem for Marks was the Texans gained too big a lead too early, leading them to use backups at the end of the game. Marks was too high up the depth chart at this point to be used in garbage time.
That obviously won't be the case every week . . .
The Forecast
Marks might remain the better fantasy option of the two running backs, as he's more likely to make the big plays going forward. However, ESPN's Dan Graziano noted on Wednesday that the Texans still view Marks as predominantly a passing-game back and one who had a bit of an injury history in college.
So in games where they're up big and running the ball -- as they were Sunday against the Ravens -- Chubb still has the playing time edge.
Marks should at least remain on fantasy rosters, even if he's not in your starting lineup. The same goes for Chubb, who Waldman explained does better with more difficult runs between the tackles than Marks. And Chubb can still outrun safeties in the open field.