In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. That isn't necessarily an enjoyable process. The first three weeks were tough. Week 1 was horrible. Week 3 wasn't great either. Week 2 was better, but I needed to get on track in Week 4. I wasn't perfect, but I'm not mad about it. Let's review:
- I was in on Packers QB Jordan Love, who was projected to finish as QB13 despite a super-favorable matchup with the Cowboys. I predicted a top-12 finish. Love scored 28.3 points to finish as the QB2 overall on the week. A direct hit. ✅
- I was out on Colts QB Daniel Jones, who was going up against a tough Rams defense that's made life tough for opposing QBs. Jones was projected to finish as QB10 with 19.45 points. I predicted he would fall short of the top 10. In fact, Jones finished as QB27. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty, who was projected to finish as RB21, going up against a very generous Chicago run defense. I predicted a top-20 effort (while suggesting a top-10 finish was realistic). I was right on both counts. Jeanty finished as the RB1 overall with 25.5 points. Sadly, I only get a credit for one pick. But I'll take another hit. ✅
- I was out on Cowboys RB Javonte Williams, who was projected to finish as RB14 with 15.41 points. I expected both teams to throw a lot, and they did. But they also ran. In Williams' case, his 19 points on the night made him the actual RB14. Yes, I'll be watching for stat change. But for now, a push -- when a player lands exactly on projection -- counts as a miss. ❌
- I was in on Cowboys WR George Pickens, who had a clear path to high-end production with CeeDee Lamb sidelined by an ankle injury. He was projected to finish as WR30 with 12.6 points. I predicted he'd finish in WR2 territory or better. It was better. Way better. Pickens racked up 33.4 fantasy points en route to becoming the WR2 on the week. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase, who was projected to finish as WR3 with 18.39 points. With a matchup against the Broncos and their star CB Patrick Surtain II, it was going to be tough to hit that. I called for a finish outside the top 10 at the position. Chase was WR51 with 7.3 points. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Bills TE Dalton Kincaid, who appears to be hitting stride this year, benefitting from a favorable matchup against the Saints. He was projected to finish as TE12 with 10.52 points. Memo to self: Nobody is going to secure the primary role in this Buffalo passing attack. It's whoever's open. Kincaid wasn't. He finished as TE19 with 9.8 fantasy points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Commanders TE Zach Ertz, who I usually play with abandon. But the veteran struggled in Marcus Mariota's first start two weeks ago, and Atlanta's defense is among the league's stingiest at the position. Ertz was projected to finish as TE9. I predicted he'd fall outside the top 10. Ertz finished as TE32. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton? Well, I noted that Thornton was projected to finish as WR55 with 9.47 points. I added many other things, including that Thornton was "a boom/bust option" that could "easily boom." While Thornton's WR43 finish easily exceeded that projection, I never stated what my expectation was. I could tell you that this should have been a hit. But my failure to include a specific outcome precludes me from taking the win. Instead, this is a miss. ❌
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself for coming up one short of what I should have.
Here's where we stand after four weeks:
- Week 4: 6 hits; 3 misses.
- Season: 15 hits; 21 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I gained ground this week and currently sit at .416. Let's see if we keep rolling in Week 5.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Jaxson Dart, NY Giants @ New Orleans
I know what you're thinking: Harris has one good week and he's back to the same risky behavior that put him in a hole to open the season.
You would be correct.
But also, on a week with four teams on bye and some tough matchups for some of the usual QB2-level suspects, I can make a pretty solid case for Dart.
As I acknowledged in this week's Fantasy Notebook, the passing numbers in Dart's NFL debut last week weren't great. He connected on 13-of-20 for 111 yards and a touchdown. But he did that against a tough Chargers defense that had allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and was tenth-best in pressure rate. Adding to the challenge, the rookie also suddenly found himself without Malik Nabers, who was lost to a season-ending torn ACL early in the game.
Nonetheless, Dart avoided turnovers and kept the Giants in positive situations, and brought a much-needed sense of urgency to the offense.
But for fantasy investors, Dart has something we covet in our quarterbacks: Mobility.
While his ability to avoid pressure was integral in keeping the Chargers' defense off balance, Dart also carried the ball 10 times for 54 yards and a score last week -- and that's with a 39-yard run being called back due to a penalty. Three of his carries came inside the red zone. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, at least six of those were designed runs.
That rushing upside is good for the Giants and great for us.
The result last week was a QB9 finish with 19.8 fantasy points.
This week, albeit without Nabers, Dart goes up against a Saints defense that has given up the third-most pass TDs, ranks in the top 11 in QB rush yards allowed, and gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this year.
Bottom line: Dart's Footballguys projection calls for a QB13 finish with 17.17 points. I predict Dart finishes this week like he did last week: Sitting in QB1 territory.
Out: Jayden Daniels, Washington @ LA Chargers
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He's back! Daniels missed the past two games with a sprained left knee suffered in Week 2, and we're all dying to get him back in our lineups this weekend.
And I'm not here to tell season-long players to bench him.
No, the argument here is that it's going to be challenging for Daniels to hit his projection.
In Washington's first two games this season, he completed 43 of 72 passes for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Daniels has run 18 times for 85 yards.
In Week 1 against the Giants, Daniels finished 19-of-30 for 233 yards and a touchdown. He had 11 carries for 68 yards. Daniels was not as accurate as usual, throwing behind his target on multiple throws over the middle, which partly explains why he was just 3-of-8 on third down. In addition, he didn't fare as well under pressure as he did last year.
In a week that saw 13 quarterbacks finish with 20 fantasy points or more, Daniels was at the bottom of that group as QB13 with 20.1 points.
In Week 2, in a matchup against a then-stingy Packers defense, Daniels was sacked four times and hit 12 times. Green Bay didn't allow the dynamic signal-caller to get loose, holding him to just 17 rushing yards, the second-lowest total in his career. The Packers defense held the Commanders to the lowest single-game explosive play rate (3.1 percent) and success rate (32.3 percent) of Daniels' career.
He finished the week as QB18 with 17.7 points.
This week, I don't think it's controversial to believe Daniels, coming off a two-week absence, likely wearing a brace on his knee, without his two most dangerous deep threats -- Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown didn't make the trip to Los Angeles, and with Deebo Samuel Sr. playing through a heel injury that cost him two days of practice, will find it challenging to deliver a high-end performance.
Los Angeles is ranked No. 3 in total defense, No. 5 in pass defense, but No. 17 in run defense. ESPN's Seth Walder notes that Chargers CBs Donte Jackson and Tarheeb Still both rank in the top five in lowest yards per coverage snap allowed among outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That will make throwing outside difficult in any circumstance, and even more with Washington missing McLaurin.
Given the matchup and circumstances, I'm expecting the Commanders to lean more heavily into their trio of running backs than their star quarterback in this one.
Bottom line: This pick is mostly about leveraging Daniels' Footballguys projection. The second-year man is projected to finish as QB8 with 19.24 points. I say Daniels falls outside the top-10.