In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. Make no mistake: The first three weeks were tough. Week 1 was horrible; Week 2 wasn't the worst, but Week 3 was another embarrassment. The good news? I followed up a strong Week 4 showing by matching it in Week 5. Let's review:
- I was in on Giants QB Jaxson Dart, who made his second career start in New Orleans. He was projected to finish as QB13. I predicted he'd finish in QB1 territory. Five turnovers (three of them by Dart) kept the Giants' offense off schedule, and Dart finished as QB15, although he beat his scoring projection (17.6 vs. 17.1). Still, a miss. ❌
- I was out on Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, playing the Chargers in Los Angeles in his first game back from injury, playing without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. He was projected to finish as QB8, but I felt this would be the week Washington broke out Jacory Croskey-Merritt. And that's just what they did, to the detriment of Daniels, who finished as QB17. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Lions RB David Montgomery, who was projected to finish as RB24 in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. I predicted Montgomery would finish inside the top 20. He was RB11. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Vikings RB Jordan Mason, who faced a tough matchup against the stingy Cleveland defense in London. He was projected to finish as RB23. I predicted he would finish outside RB2 territory. While it wasn't a great rushing day, Mason managed a touchdown to give him an RB20 finish. A miss. ❌
- I was in on Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who was coming off a big game against Baltimore in his return from a shoulder injury. He was projected to finish as WR19 with 14.3 points. I said Worthy would top both those numbers. I have to admit it was worrisome when Worthy was downgraded to questionable on Sunday after he experienced some swelling in an ankle injury that hadn't kept him from practicing fully all week. But he played the entire game and came up short with a WR39 finish and 11.1 points. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. in that same Monday night game. The second-year man was projected to finish as WR22. I predicted he would fall outside of WR2 territory for at least one more week. He did just that, finishing as WR31. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Dolphins tight end Darren Waller, coming off his two-TD Week 4 Miami debut. He was projected to finish as TE18. After he moved into second place in red-zone targets in his first week back from retirement, it seemed reasonable to expect more, and I noted he was a TD away from beating his projection. He scored that touchdown and finished as TE6. This was another hit. ✅
- I was out on Patriots tight end Hunter Henry, who's having a remarkable season. Still, he was projected to finish as TE7 going up against a Buffalo defense that had allowed the fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. I predicted Henry would finish outside the top 10. He was TE28. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Texans wide receiver Christian Kirk was projected to finish as WR52. Going up against the most generous defense in the league, the Ravens, I expected Kirk to beat that number comfortably. I don't know how comfortable it was -- Kirk didn't catch any of C.J. Stroud's four touchdown passes -- but he got the job done with a WR43 finish. One more hit. ✅
Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and if you're feeling generous, the Giants' five turnovers, Mason's touchdown, and Worthy's tender ankle -- for not batting 1.000.
Here's where we stand after five weeks:
Week 5: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 21 hits; 24 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I gained more ground this week and currently sit at .466. Let's see if we keep rolling in Week 6.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Bo Nix, Denver @ NY Jets (in London)
Both Nix and the Broncos endured some early stutters this season after defeats to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers. Still, they've picked up the pace in wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and the Eagles last week.
The win in Philadelphia was especially impressive. Nix found his rhythm on the game-winning drive midway through the fourth quarter. He went 4-for-4 for 82 yards on passes of 10 or more air yards in that final stanza to finish the game after hitting 24-of-39 for 242 yards and a touchdown.
It was arguably Nix's most significant NFL victory and one of the biggest for the Broncos since Sean Payton took over.
On the whole, however, Nix has run hot and cold. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points in two games while being held below 18 fantasy points in the other three contests. That explains why his QB13 overall ranking is higher than his QB19 spot when ranked on a points-per-game basis.
But this week sets up as a spike week.
The Jets have allowed the second-most points per game (31.4) and the sixth-most rushing yards per contest (140.4). While their secondary ranks in the top half of the league, allowing 207.0 passing yards per game (13th-best), that number is a bit deceiving. As FantasyPros' Derrick Brown notes, New York has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and manufactured the fourth-lowest pressure rate.
To that point, the Jets just allowed four touchdowns and 28.3 fantasy points to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
In all, three quarterbacks have at least 17.7 points against New York this season, and the Jets have yet to create a turnover this season.
Bottom line: Nix's Footballguys projection calls for a QB13 finish with 19 points. I expect a spike week, with the second-year man exceeding both those numbers to finish inside QB1 territory.
Out: Justin Fields, NY Jets vs. Denver (in London)
Fields is one of the best rushing QBs in the NFL, and he has three front-line weapons in wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall, and tight end Mason Taylor.
The Jets are the NFL's last remaining team without a win, but their offense is averaging just 0.8 fewer points per game than the Broncos. New York's squad is capable of making big plays and scoring points, and Fields threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns when he last played Denver in 2023.
He'll face a tougher task this time around.
Fields goes from one of the most favorable matchups in the Cowboys to one of the toughest in the Broncos, and, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft noted, if his mobility makes you less apt to fret about Fields' matchups, consider that a majority of his 21.9 fantasy points last week came in the final 19 minutes and 33 seconds and in clear garbage time. During this time, he had only two rushing attempts.
That passing success won't be easy to duplicate. Footballguy Devin Knotts noted in his Week 6 Passing Matchups that Fields sits inside the top ten at quarterback in fantasy points per game, but the passing component still trails the rushing value. He averages 7.1 yards per attempt, which is middle of the pack, and even that number is buoyed by last week's late push against Dallas.
Meanwhile, Denver is ranked top-10 defensively against quarterbacks, top-10 against the pass with at least a one-score lead, top-10 against the pass in the fourth quarter, and top-10 against mobile quarterbacks (giving up the third-fewest rushing yards to the position). From a fantasy perspective, the Broncos allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game, holding opposing signal callers to just 13.4 points per game.
Bottom line: Fields' Footballguys projection calls for a QB14 finish with 18.62 fantasy points. Given the matchup and the expectation of a negative game script, I'll predict Fields falls short of that spot.