Welcome to Week 14 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
Let's roll...
Matt Waldman: I'm a huge proponent of the idea that if you "have no regrets," you haven't truly examined your life. Regrets can be the fuel for us learning valuable lessons.
Most regrets come from not taking action, but they can also come from being too risky. Name a player/situation you wish you believed in but had second thoughts about and now regret, or a player/situation where you were far too bullish and it proved reckless.
Jeff Bell: Here is where I should stop believing in Saquon Barkley, but I will go with a player who was nearly a Philadelphia Eagle if not for a Jalen Raegor draft pick: Justin Jefferson.
Many backed off from Jefferson this offseason, especially as adverse reports about J.J. McCarthy came swirling in. But I remained undeterred and viewed Jefferson firmly in the Top 7 tier of fantasy drafts.
I was wrong.
The talent is still undeniably present, and Jefferson is in the prime of his career, but we have seen fantasy receivers completely undone by their quarterback situation. Jefferson is one.
In a 2023 season that the Vikings operated without Kirk Cousins over the second half, Jefferson missed time with an injury. He posted a couple of dud performances upon his return, with 27 yards in Week 14 and 59 in the fantasy championships.
As much as I want to continue to believe in his talent and hope Kevin O'Connell has an answer, I think about the players on the board who could have been selected instead, even more.
Andy Hicks: Regrets . . . I've had a few.
This is a fantasy year I would rather forget. Trading away Trey McBride and then eschewing George Pickens when he was available at a great value. I was over-reliant on Brian Thomas Jr. as my lead wide receiver. I intentionally targeted lower-upside quarterbacks, valuing stability over potential breakout risk.
I will land on my reliance on Brian Thomas Jr. as my biggest regret. Having done the player spotlight for the website this year, I understood the difference in numbers for Thomas in his rookie year between Trevor Lawrence starting and Mac Jones under center. I paid too much attention to Thomas improving during his rookie season and didn't account enough for his lack of connection with Lawrence.
What really sold me was analyzing 1,000-yard rookie receivers from the last 30 years and seeing how they fared in their second season.
Before Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers this year, Michael Clayton of the Bucs was the only second-year receiver who could be labelled a flop. Nabers, however, had an excuse. Despite missing three games, Thomas still only ranks 47th in fantasy points per game.
Whether the issue is physical, temperament, or otherwise, he was not a player I should have relied on to carry my receiving group. I held on to him, played him when better options were available, and the sunk cost was detrimental to my fantasy season. Other situations didn't help, but Thomas was the straw that broke my fantasy season.
I have been playing fantasy long enough to know that some years do not go your way. Learn from your mistakes and determine whether they were preventable errors or unforeseen situations beyond your control.
Colton Dodgson: I was skeptical that Travis Kelce would ride into the sunset with a productive fantasy season in what seems to be his last dance. His efficiency metrics dropped in each of the last three seasons, and his ability to create after the catch seemed to have fallen off altogether in 2024.
The numbers supported that observation. Since Kelce's career-high 678 yards after catch in 2022, his figure had dropped by an average of 154.5 in each of the subsequent two seasons.
Beyond that, Kelce's route running -- something he's been fantastic at throughout his career -- didn't look the same as it did when he was breaking fantasy. My read was that a career season was one of the least likely outcomes for 2025.
I couldn't have been more wrong.
Through 12 games, Kelce's 0.51 expected points added per target is a career-high. His next touchdown reception will give him his highest season touchdown total since 2022. Kelce also got a chance at surpassing his career-best mark for yardage after the catch. His 407 yards after the catch are already more than he had last season, and he'll likely best his 2023 mark of 472.
In terms of his fantasy viability, Kelce's seven top-12 positional finishes are the third-most at the position. His four top-five finishes are tied with Tyler Warren for the third-most. Kelce is the TE2 in Half-PPR scoring, and his 11 points per game are tied with George Kittle for the fourth-highest average.
I ranked Kelce as TE11 in my final draft rankings in August. It's looking like Kelce might end up being one of my biggest whiffs of the offseason. Congrats to those of you who believed he could go out on a high note.