RELATED: See other positions: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers
In the realm of fantasy football, many managers hold the belief that if a player is truly talented, their skill will become apparent early in their career. While this idea is logical, an analysis of some numbers was conducted to test this belief and better understand the extent to which early success matters for fantasy football assets. This discussion began with the quarterback position in the first article of the series, continued with running backs in the second piece, and wide receivers in the third. This fourth and final piece will focus specifically on the tight end position.
The Process
First, a baseline was needed. To find that, the average fantasy points per game scored by the 12th-best tight ends among players who participated in at least six games over the past 12 seasons was calculated. In a PPR scoring system, this average was approximately 10.3 points per game. This served as the baseline for a TE1 season. Using a similar strategy, it was also calculated that 7.1 points per game was an appropriate TE2 benchmark. After excluding one-hit wonders, we were left with 29 tight ends who finished above the 10.3 points per game mark since 2013. This list includes some absolute legends, such as Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, as well as solid players like Jared Cook and Jack Doyle. All in all, this collection is a list of successful fantasy football tight ends. The careers of these players were then examined, reviewing their performance over each season while tracking the fantasy points scored per game. The goal of analyzing the data was to understand the significance of early production for successful fantasy football tight ends. The question explored here: How early do successful fantasy tight ends provide production in their careers?
The Discovery
After looking at the numbers, every tight end fits into one of three major categories.
- Immediate Stars: Players who hit at least one TE1 season within their first two seasons.
- Early Producers: Players who at least had one TE2 season in their first two seasons without having a TE1 season.
- Late Bloomers: Players who did not hit either a TE1 or a TE2 season within their first two seasons.
Similar to the rest of the research, only seasons where the player played in six or more games were considered to avoid outlier numbers. The data from the entire 29-tight end sample:
About 48% of them were Immediate Stars, hitting the 16.1-point-per-game mark at least once in their first two seasons.
Approximately 21% of the players were Early Producers, having at least one TE2 season but no seasons that reached the TE1 baseline.
Overall, this indicates that about 69% of the sampled players provided some level of significant fantasy relevance within their first two seasons. This leaves a percentage of about 31%, representing our Late Bloomers, and four of these players did nothing of note within their first three seasons. If your tight end has not flashed much within their first three seasons, it would likely be unwise to bet on this player achieving TE1 success.
Here is a table of the data:
| Tight End | Stats Within First 3 Seasons of 6+ Starts | Career Stats | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE1 Seasons | TE2 Seasons | Seasons of 6+ Starts | TE1 Seasons | TE2 Seasons | |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennet | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 4 |
| Delanie Walker | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Eifert | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 3 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 7 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Asking if a tight end hit the Immediate Star category or not is essentially a yes or no question. After working through the entire sample, seeing a result so close to 50% indicates that neither answer has a significant edge over the other, meaning there is no discernible trend here. The data suggests that if your tight end has not hit the threshold of being a TE2 after two seasons, it does not matter much at all. Examining the Early Producer section, we can draw a more concrete conclusion: Seven out of every ten tight ends fell into this category or the Immediate Stars category. If you have been following along with the series and recall previous pieces, you will notice that these numbers are not nearly as concrete as those we saw in the quarterback or running back study, but are similar to the data in the wide receiver study.
What we can conclude is that while we should hope to see some level of production early, there is significantly more room for patience to be had in fantasy football tight end development compared to quarterbacks and running backs. We have been blessed with some young stars at tight end lately, with Brock Bowers and Sam LaPorta. This trend could be headed in that direction, but for now, we must stay strong in the fact that great tight ends can take time to develop and do not need to have so much success so early for us to consider them potentially impactful fantasy assets. Something to also add into context is that it is not very difficult to be a top twenty-four tight end in fantasy football. 7.9 points per game was easily the lowest top-24 baseline of the four positions; that points-per-game mark could be a stat line of 40 receptions, 547 yards, and 5 touchdowns in PPR scoring. That is a per-game stat line of 2.35 catches, 32.17 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns per game. Players who flash anything at all will likely get themselves into this conversation.
The 2024 Rookies
This study eliminated all one-hit wonders, so the rookie class cannot be included; however, rookies are players worthy of keeping an eye on. This year's tight end class had players worth noting in fantasy football.
Brock Bowers had arguably the best rookie tight end season of all time, breaking the all-time rookie record and leading the league in tight end receiving yards. He is a future superstar for sure and puts himself in the Immediate Stars category after his rookie season.
Theo Johnson fits in the Late Bloomers category. The 6-foot-6, 258-pound athletic pass-catcher flashed a little this past season, with a couple of games of five or more catches in the second half of the year. He unfortunately suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury last year, but played in New York's preseason debut against Buffalo, with two catches early in the game. Given the ambiguous receiving room, he could be a high-volume player in 2025 for New York if he takes the next step forward.
Ja'Tavion Sanders is currently in the Late Bloomers category as well. He made a couple of huge plays down the stretch for Carolina. Bryce Young is set to have an exciting 2025 campaign and needs all the help he can get at receiver. Sanders should have a feature role in 2025 and potentially enter a new category in year two.
Ben Sinnott is also in the Late Bloomers category, but he flashed very little as a rookie, catching five passes. He was an exciting prospect. But Zach Ertz is still on the team, and the Commanders also added wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. to their offense this offseason. Do not expect a big season from Sinnott until Zach Ertz is gone; then a conversation can be had. Another season of no production would be concerning for his future, given the numbers revealed in this study.
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