Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
The 2026 Season Has Begun
Some people still call it the offseason. If you're reading this, you know better.
There is no offseason.
Instead, we've entered a different, slightly slower phase of the NFL’s 365-day-a-year reality show.
And Footballguys will be here for all of it.
The NFL Scouting Combine is the first tent-pole event of the NFL season. This year's festivities take place in Indianapolis from February 23 through March 2. It's a week-long job interview that allows coaches and scouts to measure speed, strength, and agility, directly influencing draft stocks and millions of dollars in potential contracts.
Whether you're looking to prepare for, catch up on, or even get ahead of the process, we can help.
The Rookie Guide
The Footballguys 2026 Rookie Draft Guide is your complete blueprint for the 2026 NFL rookie class.
Our team of analysts has evaluated over 150 prospects with detailed scouting reports, player comparisons, range of outcomes, and consensus rankings to give you the edge in your dynasty and redraft rookie picks.
Version 1 is available now. Access it free of charge here.
But That's Not All
For serious fantasy players, Dynasty investors, or those (like me) who hit the best-ball draft rooms as soon as they open, it's nice to have some baseline numbers to serve as a starting point for creating strategies.
We have that.
Our own Jason Wood has created and posted his initial 2026 Footballguys Draft Projections and 2026 Draft Rankings. Fellow Footballguy Jeff Blaylock has made the initial Dynasty projections as well, and they're reflected in our 2026 Dynasty Rankings.
I'll be adding my own redraft rankings before the end of the month, and other staffers will do the same with more redraft, Dynasty, Salary Cap, and Individual Defensive Players (IDP) coming soon.
In addition, Footballguy Dave Kluge has posted his 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: The Post-Super Bowl Top 36, with analysis of the players listed.
Yes, all these projections and rankings are preliminary. They will evolve as developments change outlooks throughout the offseason.
A lot of those changes will come after the NFL Draft, which takes place April 23-25.
But there will be changes before then as well, because . . .
Free Agency is Coming
The 2026 NFL free agency signing period officially begins at 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, marking the start of the new league year. A two-day legal tampering period begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Monday, March 9, allowing teams to negotiate with agents of upcoming unrestricted free agents before contracts can be signed.
Part of the free agent process is assigning tags. Teams have the opportunity to issue the franchise tag as early as this Tuesday, February 17, through the March 3 deadline.
As CBSSports.com's Jonathan Jones explained, the franchise tag is often used as a placeholder. If someone is tagged at the start of March, they could have an extension before free agency begins a week later. If they don't, the team has until July 15 to strike a deal, or the player will play the season on the tag.
So all that will factor into our ever-changing projections and rankings.
It's also the kind of news we'll be tracking and analyzing in the Fantasy Notebook, setting baselines, assigning early values, and keeping you on top of stories of interest.
Let's get the ball rolling with something we've become accustomed to over time . . .
Receiving Drama!
The best part about reality shows? The inherent drama.
And there's no position where the storylines are more fraught with emotion, intrigue, irony, and pathos than wide receivers.
Of course, since it's still February, the conflict and turmoil haven't blossomed into full-blown spectacle territory.
But here are three wideouts whose current situations have the potential to become bigger issues.
Disgruntled or Nah?
Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown says he's excited to play in the new offense in Philadelphia this season.
Brown, the subject of speculation that he could be headed elsewhere in 2026, appeared on Micah Parsons' podcast and sounded like he wants to remain an Eagle, hopefully in an offense that can make better use of him this year.
The Eagles fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and hired Sean Mannion to replace him. Brown sounded excited about that, while being careful not to badmouth Patullo on his way out the door.
"Change is not a bad thing. I have the utmost respect for KP. He did a tremendous job, and he has a great heart. But I'm excited for the season. I'm excited for what's to come," Brown said.
But is "what's to come" necessarily going to come in Philadelphia?
Brotherly Love/Hate
As ESPN.com's Tim McManus reported, Brown's frustration has been apparent at various points over the last couple of seasons, including cryptic social media posts early in the 2025 season.
The Eagles were 4-0 in late September, but after asking coaches to be more aggressive following a win over the Rams in Week 3, Brown was held to two catches for 7 yards on nine targets against the Buccaneers a week later.
"If you're not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw," Brown posted on X after that Week 4 game. "Don't make a scene. Shrug your shoulders and be on your way."
As rumors of a strained relationship with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts swirled, Brown declined to speak to the media in the latter stages of the year -- a development that coincided with an on-field meeting with the team's CEO Jeffrey Lurie in mid-November, when he promised he would stop complaining publicly.
Still, the veteran wideout's broader willingness to air grievances helped fuel chatter that the team might move him ahead of the trade deadline.
The Eagles did not trade Brown before the November 4 cutoff, but his future with the team remained a topic of conversation after a heated sideline exchange with head coach Nick Sirianni and a crucial drop late in their playoff loss to the 49ers.
The Conversations Persist
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, some NFL executives believe Brown wants out of Philadelphia. Fowler went on to suggest that the wide receiver's "happy-to-be-here quotient in Philly is miserably low."
"It feels like it's time," Fowler wrote in late January. "Some league execs have felt that way since October."
The Athletic's Dianna Russini added to that on Super Bowl Sunday, noting that Brown's situation with the Eagles remains unresolved and that his relationship with the team remains tenuous.
"From what I'm hearing," Russini wrote, "substantial conversations about his future have not yet taken place, but expect talks to ramp up around the NFL combine in two weeks."
The Desired Outcome
Eagles general manager Howie Roseman doesn't sound eager to move Brown.
"It is hard to find great players in the NFL, and A.J. is a great player," Roseman said when asked about dealing Brown during his end-of-season news conference. For his part, Sirianni understands Brown's makeup and knows this is part of what comes with having a star pass-catcher who wants to play a bigger role in the offense.
Sirianni told reporters after the Buccaneers game that he questioned "nothing about [Brown's] desire to play football, his desire to be a good teammate, his desire to be here."
It's also hard to question the production.
Brown is a three-time Pro Bowler and the only Eagle to post multiple seasons with 1,400-plus receiving yards -- the two highest marks in franchise history.
The Most Likely Outcome
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper pointed out, Roseman never said no to the idea of trading Brown. The GM will have to weigh the attractiveness of any offers that come against everything -- good and bad -- that comes with having Brown in the locker room. That obviously includes what they get on the field.
Strip away the drama, and Brown pulled in 78 catches for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025 -- the fourth time he has eclipsed 1,000 yards in as many seasons since coming to Philadelphia.
And here's what matters to us: Brown finished the year as WR11 in total fantasy points and fantasy points per game.
While 2025 was a wild ride, and it often felt like the star receiver was falling short -- there were five games last year when he failed to catch a pass in the second half -- Brown didn't finish all that far from his WR10 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer.
But it's totally fair to wonder if another team wouldn't better -- or more fully utilize -- Brown, who opens as WR12 in our initial projections. Wherever he winds up, it's interesting to see Brown available as WR15 with a third-round price tag in our 2026 ADP data.
What Ifs?
Even if there's a non-zero chance that Brown gets traded, we shouldn't rule out the possibility that he stays with the Eagles. As Footballguy Cecil Lammey pointed out, the cap hit would be big if they deal him, but teams are more willing to take dead cap hits to move forward.
There are plenty of intriguing potential landing spots, with New England, Buffalo, Tennessee, Cleveland, New Orleans, and San Francisco, among the teams in need. It's not hard to understand why any of them might be interested. Brown would immediately upgrade any receiving corps he joins.
The Eagles, on the other hand, could build the passing game around DeVonta Smith and a high draft pick.
How it all unfolds will help determine fantasy values in Philadelphia -- and perhaps beyond.
Cowboys Ready to Play Tag
The Dallas Cowboys are expected to place their franchise tag on Pro Bowl wide receiver George Pickens, league sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter last weekend.
The projected cost of the one-year, fully guaranteed franchise tag for Pickens will be roughly $28 million.
But the Cowboys want to lock in Pickens for at least next season and, as owner Jerry Jones told the team's website, the long term.
As noted above, the Cowboys have a two-week window -- starting Tuesday -- to apply the tag.
But Schefter reports it "undoubtedly is coming," if for no other reason than to buy time on the negotiations necessary to keep him in Dallas beyond 2026.
The Problems
From the Cowboys' perspective, it's simple enough. The franchise tag -- which almost no player wants -- limits Pickens' free agent options and increases the chances he returns to Dallas.
"I'm talking to George all the time by virtue of my excitement for him," Jones said. "He's better than, as far as what he contributed to our team, showing the potential that he could contribute. I'm looking forward to getting things worked out so George can be a Cowboy a long time."
But the Cowboys are scheduled to have 15 unrestricted free agents this offseason, including Pickens, running back Javonte Williams, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.
Pickens, however, is coming off a breakout season in which he caught 90 passes for 1,409 yards and nine touchdowns -- all career bests.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said at the Pro Bowl Games that it was "vital" for Dallas to retain Pickens.
"I think it must be done," Prescott said. "I think obviously from Jerry to everybody down understands that, and the impact on this offense and the team and the great player that he is. We've got to find a way to keep him here."
Unfortunately, that objective is more difficult to accomplish with Prescott's $40 million base salary and $74.07 million cap hit in 2026. Add in CeeDee Lamb, who has a $25 million base salary and a $38.4 million cap hit, and, as our colleague Wood will tell you, having $140 million tied into three players on offense when you have the league's worst defense isn't wise.
The Negotiations
Pickens said he is "willing to do anything" when asked his thoughts on the franchise tag, but he makes clear his belief that his value increased after his career year.
The Cowboys traded with the Steelers for Pickens in the 2025 offseason. Prescott is the best quarterback Pickens has played with, and it showed. His previous best season was 63 receptions for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns in 2023.
"I would love to," Pickens said. "But when you can't control it, you kind of just hope for the best."
True. But leverage has a way of clarifying priorities.
The Sticking Point
Dallas needs to clear space to get under the 2026 cap. On Feb. 6, the league reportedly informed clubs it is projecting a salary cap in the range of $301.2 million to $305.7 million.
Dallas has contracts totaling about $330 million.
So, conservatively, the Cowboys will have to come up with $30 million to get under the cap.
If they place the tag on Pickens, that $28 million hits the cap immediately.
The Possible Outcomes
According to ESPN's Bill Barnwell, if the Cowboys decide to let Pickens test the open market and move on after one season, it would be stunning if he landed anything short of $30 million per year with a multiyear guarantee.
Remember, the Cowboys gave Lamb a deal worth $34 million annually two years ago.
Would they top that for Pickens? Would they have to?
The tag would open up other scenarios, like Pickens' availability in the voluntary offseason program and training camp. The Cowboys went through Parsons' hold-in during training camp last summer, and Pickens has the same agency -- Athletes First -- as Parsons.
A sign-and-trade is also a possible option for Pickens, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero, and Mike Garafolo.
Barnwell believes there will be teams wary of paying anyone Mike Tomlin and the Steelers wanted to let go, but there's no denying Pickens' talent and ability to impact games. He doesn't even turn 25 until March, making him one of the younger free agents this offseason.
The Likely Outcomes
The most likely scenario is that Pickens returns to the Cowboys in 2026 on the franchise tag. If he can prove that 2025 wasn't an outlier season, the Cowboys will be more inclined to sign him to a long-term deal.
Absent that, Pickens would hit the open market next season.
For now, though, the franchise tag is coming for one of the league's breakout stars.
Fantasy Outlook
We can expect Pickens, who is WR10 in our initial projections, to go in the second round of drafts this season. There's room for upside at that price, considering his WR6 finish last season.
For perspective, Lamb is WR6 with a first-round ADP (No. 8 overall).
Given the prices on the wideouts, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggests the best way to take advantage of this situation is to target Prescott, who should be in line for huge numbers if Pickens, Lamb, and his offensive line stay healthy.
Prescott is QB11 in our projections, which aligns with his initial ADP and seventh-round price . . .
Will a Rising Star Reset the Market?
As Billy Heyen of The Sporting News framed it, "Alec Pierce isn't like most modern wide receivers."
Heyen went on to acknowledge the NFL's passing game isn't as deep-ball focused as it used to be, but Pierce makes nearly all his plays quite a bit down the field for the Indianapolis Colts.
Barnwell contends that makes him a curious case as he heads toward free agency this offseason.
After all, Pierce averaged 22.3 yards per reception in 2024 and 21.3 yards per catch in 2025, leading the league both times.
The last time a player had two seasons with at least 30 catches while averaging more than 20 yards per reception over his first four pro campaigns was all the way back in 1994, when Alvin Harper did it in his third and fourth seasons for the Cowboys.
How do you pay a guy who isn't like the other wide receivers you'd consider in his place?
Paying the Speed Premium
Barnwell went on to remind readers that last offseason, teams desperate for speed overpaid to sign replacement-level talent at wide receiver in free agency.
The Rams brought back Tutu Atwell on a one-year, $10 million deal. They got 192 receiving yards over 10 games, as the move into 13 personnel groupings and the rise of Xavier Smith and Konata Mumpfield limited Atwell's playing time as the third wideout behind Davante Adams and Puka Nacua.
The Jaguars signed Dyami Brown to an identical contract after a hot postseason in Washington, yet despite Travis Hunter's knee injury, they lost interest in Brown after a slow start. Jacksonville traded for Jakobi Meyers and promoted Parker Washington ahead of the speedster in their lineup.
Brown played single-digit snaps down the stretch and was a healthy scratch in the season-ending loss to the Bills.
If speedy receivers who barely see the field are worth $10 million deals, Pierce's pending free agency poses an interesting question: What if a speedy receiver who was actually good hit the market?
No One-Trick Pony
Pierce narrowly topped 1,000 yards for the first time as a pro with a 132-yard effort against the Texans in Week 18, but his breakout wasn't really a product of better quarterback play in 2025.
His rate of off-target potential receptions was roughly the same in 2024 (23.5 percent) and 2025 (23.8 percent).
But Pierce isn't just fast.
Footballguy and Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman reminded me that Pierce was his WR7 in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he offered an interesting comparison.
"I felt Pierce could develop into a player closer in style to Justin Jefferson than many might have thought," Waldman said. "Because both players are skilled vertical weapons due to their hands, speed, timing, and toughness at the catch point, who can also deliver on timing routes."
Barnwell believes Pierce is one of the best wide receivers who could be available in free agency this offseason.
"I don't think it's wild at all to suggest that Pierce could be looking at something in the ballpark of $30 million per year in free agency, which brings the franchise tag into play," Barnwell writes. "The 2026 tag for wide receivers is projected to come in at $28.1 million. A second franchise tag in 2027 would be a minimum of $33.7 million.
Tag Incoming?
The franchise tag could also be a useful tool for the Colts if they really want to see Pierce maintain similar production for another season.
Indy is still figuring out the QB position and hoping Daniel Jones heals up to lead the way in the 2026 season.
If all the pieces work just fine in 2026, then Pierce gets his longer-term deal.
Or he may get it next month, with big money from another team.
It's definitely a fascinating case, one that could redefine the high-end of the wide receiver market and have an impact well beyond Pierce . . .
This and That: Get it on Your Radar Edition
As the official start of the new league year draws nearer, we'll use this spot to highlight a wide range of items likely to have fantasy impact . . .
