My Footballguys Subscriber Contest Strategy

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The fantasy football landscape has evolved since the contest was first introduced on August 7th. Player values and projections have changed. Position battles have been resolved. Players have been traded to new teams. Injuries have taken their toll.

Let's look at several strategies for submitting (or revising) your contest entry to take advantage of these recent developments.

Your approach will lie somewhere on the spectrum between "wing it" and "compute it", influenced by the time you have available and your overall interest in mathematical analysis. The best approach is the one you're most comfortable with.

If you're curious to explore the analysis-heavy end of the spectrum, this article is for you.

We'll begin by discussing three strategies for constructing your action plan:

1. Maximize Return on Investment
2. Manage Bye Weeks
3. Handcuff Premium Starters

Then we'll finish up with a discussion of Team Defenses and Place Kickers.

Put on your analysis cap. Let's see what the numbers tell us.

Strategy 1 - Maximize Return on Investment (ROI)

In the context of entering the Footballguys Subscriber Contest, your investment is the $250 spending cap you have for your player selections. Your return is measured in projected fantasy points, which is determined by marrying projected performance statistics (passing completions, rushing yards, receptions, etc.) to the contest scoring rules.

A player's expected return on investment (FPs/$ or ROI) is the ratio of his projected fantasy points (Projected FPs) to his contest cap dollars (Contest $). The contest cap dollars are published as part of the scoring rules and will not change.

Strategy 1 thus boils down to selecting the set of players (within the contest guidelines) you project to score the most fantasy points. Ah, but there's a twist: these projected points must be distributed over the 17 weeks of the contest such that your roster stays above the survivor-style cut line every week. That's where your bye week distribution comes into play. More on that in our Strategy 2 discussion below. 

There are numerous sources of player projections. You can use those provided by your league host, the ones available through your Footballguys subscription, or you can make up your own. I'm partial to the numbers behind door number two, so for the analysis in this article, we'll reference the Footballguys expert projections as of August 30th.

In the following four sections, we'll explore the numbers for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Quarterbacks

Observations

1. Patrick Mahomes II has the 6th-highest projection at the 8th-highest contest price.
2. Justin Herbert has the best ROI of the 19 most expensive quarterbacks to acquire and is ranked as the QB12.
3. Daniel Jones has been named the Colts' starter. Assuming he keeps the job, his ROI - already better than any of the top-21 quarterbacks - will rise even more as he joins the ranks of low QB2s.
4. If you believe Joe Flacco can hold down the starting job in Cleveland for much of the season, his $8 price is a steal.
5. The prices for the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants quarterbacks imply that the starter situation is unresolved. Since Spencer Rattler has been named the Week 1 starter for New Orleans, his contest value is attractive.   

My Contest Strategy

I contemplated selecting Jayden Daniels to be my primary quarterback starter (and handcuffing him with Marcus Mariota), as he was the highest-ranked quarterback in the contest who had a handcuff. But I ended up rostering Patrick Mahomes II and Sam Darnold instead of Daniels and Mariota for the same $30 investment, giving me an additional quarterback starter.

Running Backs

To identify value selections at the running back position, let's look at players ranked in the top 40 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the running backs who meet those criteria, and are listed from highest projected fantasy points to lowest. The FPs Rank column shows the player's positional rank.

My Contest Strategy

I dropped 31.2% of my contest budget on four running backs listed in the above table (Chase Brown, James Conner, D'Andre Swift, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt) plus Woody Marks. They all have different bye weeks and will all be available from Week 13 on.

Wide Receivers

To identify value selections at the wide receiver position, let's look at players ranked in the top 60 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the wide receivers who meet those criteria, listed from highest projected fantasy points to lowest.

My Contest Strategy

Wide receivers have ROIs that are substantially higher than those for running backs, so I chose to spend 28.4% of my budget acquiring seven of them, all ranked in the top 55 at their position. One massive risk is that only four of the seven are scheduled to play in crucial Week 14. This configuration strategy features only one top-25 receiver (Stefon Diggs) and thus bets on weekly spike performances from one or two of the other six rostered wideouts.

Tight Ends

To identify value selections at the tight end position, we'll look at players ranked in the top 40 for both projected fantasy points and ROI.

The following table lists the tight ends who meet those criteria, ranked from highest projected fantasy points to lowest.

My Contest Strategy

I dropped just 12.8% of my contest budget on four of the tight ends listed in the above table: Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, Mason Taylor, and Ja'Tavion Sanders. They all have different bye weeks, and three of them will be available from Week 13 on. All four are top-24 tight ends with top-13 ROIs.

Weather Considerations