Top 5 Passing Matchups
Kansas City vs Washington
Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs' air attack started to rebound just before top wideout Rashee Rice returned. Now, Mahomes is working with his full range of weaponry, and few offenses are humming more right now. They've averaged 283 yards (7.9 per attempt) over the last 3 weeks, with 11 touchdowns to just a single interception. It feels safe to assume Mahomes has found his groove with this arsenal. Rice looked great in his return, drawing 10 targets and catching 7 of them. He'll soak up a heavy target share underneath and in the intermediate, while Xavier Worthy works downfield and on gadget plays. Suddenly, the Chiefs are in a position to use their more limited options (Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton) in specialist-type roles. The Commanders likely lack the talent in coverage to keep up.
The Washington pass defense survived 2024 as a tough, fundamental unit that made big plays in big moments. This group, however, looks like the polar opposite and is trending back towards the 2023 defense, which was among the worst in recent memory. They blitz a lot, but don't push the pocket much, and the secondary remains a disaster. There's no question where the Commanders' brass will focus the top of the 2026 Draft. Marshon Lattimore has become a liability in coverage, a shell of himself in his best days as a Saint. Lattimore's pesky, physical style simply doesn't work without the timing and burst he once had. The team had hoped to build around that, but they've already been forced to pivot him into a softer zone role, which has gone no better. Altogether, this group has given up massive days to Drake London (8 for 110 and 1), CeeDee Lamb (5 for 110 and 1), and even the Raiders' Tre Tucker (8 for 145 and 3). That doesn't even include George Pickens, who scorched both Lattimore and Trey Amos for deep balls en route to 4 for 82. Patrick Mahomes II' weapons are healthy, and his deep ball is coming around on schedule. He'll likely be able to pick and choose his spots downfield, and he'll produce for as long as the game is competitive.
Chicago at Baltimore
Caleb Williams hasn't had the striking success of classmates Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, nor has he enjoyed the team success of Bo Nix. Still, real progress has been made from Year One to Year Two. While there are still real holes in his actual game, Williams keeps showing signs of a fantasy dynamo. He's a true playmaker, sitting near the top of the league in both pocket time and aDOT. Williams has faced three bad defenses thus far and averaged 254 yards, at a stellar 8.1 per throw. Now, he gets to play against a battered Ravens defense that's been unable to stop anyone. His connection with Rome Odunze (25% target share) is obvious, though it's cooled a bit of late as Williams has spread the ball more. D.J. Moore and the rookie weapons are harder to trust, but all can benefit from Williams' gunslinging style.
The Baltimore defense is improving from its early-season woes, but really, they had nowhere to go but up. And frankly, that improvement is likely only on the stat sheet, inflated by lots of negative game flow. All told, this group has given up 255 yards a game, a mediocre but workable number. Situationally, though, they've been a wreck. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II (a combined 664 yards and 6 touchdowns) sliced this group apart, while C.J. Stroud and Matthew Stafford (8.0 per throw and 5 touchdowns) took it easy in lopsided wins. Only two teams have pressured the passer less than the Ravens, and none have fewer sacks, forcing a shaky secondary to hold downfield coverage far too long. Name value has not been kind to the Ravens: former lockdown cornerback Marlon Humphrey looks thoroughly washed, while Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie are pure non-factors, for various reasons. All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton can be only so effective when asked to make every downfield play. This veteran-laden unit looks destined for an overhaul this offseason; in the meantime, it's practically a fantasy free space.
Denver vs Dallas