Top 5 Passing Matchups
LA Rams vs Detroit
Matthew Stafford and the Rams are more of a pass-heavy team than even their stats indicate. While they're 13th in total pass attempts this season, the Rams frequently spend second halves salting away wins, which drags down overall volume. In neutral situations, Stafford drops back as often as almost any quarterback in football, and this matchup projects as anything but a quiet afternoon. With a total north of fifty points and a spread that suggests a competitive contest, Stafford should be asked to attack from the opening drive. His efficiency has been elite, particularly in the red zone, where he has thrown more passes and more touchdowns than any other passer. Davante Adams has been the primary beneficiary inside the twenty, with 56 catches and an incredible 14 scores that highlight their almost automatic timing near the goal line. Puka Nacua, meanwhile, dominates the field between the twenties and leads the league in both targets and receptions even after missing time. This passing game is highly concentrated around those two, which simplifies fantasy decisions and magnifies Stafford's outlook whenever the Rams are pushed. Against a depleted secondary, Stafford may not even need elevated volume to deliver a top-tier fantasy line.
Detroit's pass defense has struggled for most of the season and now enters its most vulnerable stretch. The Lions sit in the bottom third of the league in raw passing yardage allowed, and their efficiency metrics tell a similar story. Over the last three weeks, they have surrendered more than sixty combined fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through the air. Now they must navigate the rest of the season without Brian Branch, who served as the backbone of this secondary. Branch moved seamlessly between both safety spots and inside and outside cornerback alignments, and his ability to clean up mistakes and make plays on the ball helped cover for personnel issues around him. With Branch shelved, the Lions are left leaning heavily on D.J. Reed on one side and scrambling for answers elsewhere while also dealing with losses to Terrion Arnold and Thomas Harper. Although Harper may return this week, it does seem that he may be one more week away from returning. Detroit is now stretched thin at every coverage spot and lacks the versatility it once had to hide weaker matchups. The Rams could jump out quickly and tilt the game flow, which always introduces some risk that the passing volume tapers late. However, as long as this game remains competitive, Stafford will be throwing against a secondary that has lost its most important piece and no longer has the depth to match up with multiple high-end receivers for four quarters.
Seattle vs Indianapolis
Sam Darnold continues to look rejuvenated in Seattle and has assembled a body of work that demands attention. He leads the league in on-target throw rate and yards per attempt, which reflects not just scheme but real growth in processing and accuracy. Dating back to the start of 2024, only a small handful of passers have produced more yards or touchdowns, and Darnold sits firmly in that group. The Seahawks do not waste possessions. Their passing game is built around efficient reads that put Darnold in favorable situations and get the ball into the hands of their best playmaker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba has become the engine of this offense. He owns an extraordinary 36 percent target share, which leads the league, and he has turned that volume into at least 79 yards in twelve of thirteen games. That level of consistency is rare and mirrors some of the most dominant fantasy seasons we have seen in recent years. The rest of the receiving depth chart is comprised of role players who thrive when defenses tilt toward Smith-Njigba, and the Seahawks are content to ride that formula. In a week when the matchup tilts heavily toward the passing game, Darnold and his featured receiver project as one of the highest-ceiling combinations on the slate.
Indianapolis enters this game in crisis on both sides of the ball. The offense is reeling after the loss of Daniel Jones, which puts more pressure on a defense that was already struggling against the pass. The Colts rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed because opponents have recognized how difficult it is to run on them and have simply chosen to attack through the air. The team tried to address this weakness with a bold move for Sauce Gardner, but he is now unavailable, and the situation has worsened. Charvarius Ward, the other top cornerback on the roster, is also working through the league's concussion protocol after a third such incident this season. That leaves Indianapolis thin at the very positions it hoped would stabilize this defense. Recent opponents such as Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Stroud, and Patrick Mahomes II have had little trouble piling up production, and that was before the latest injury wave hit. Without Gardner and possibly without Ward, the Colts must lean on depth players who are not equipped to handle a wide receiver as dominant as Smith-Njigba or a quarterback as efficient as Darnold. The stage is set for Seattle to continue its passing surge against a defense that has been pushed to its breaking point.
San Francisco vs Tennessee
Brock Purdy has returned from injury and stepped back into a familiar rhythm, completing roughly two-thirds of his attempts in a three-game winning streak. The 49ers do not typically ask Purdy to carry the entire offensive burden. His average of around 32 attempts per game reflects more the comfort that comes with playing from ahead than any lack of faith. When needed, the structure of the offense clearly supports more volume. Mac Jones averaged 36 passes and 269 yards over eight relief starts, which shows how the system can scale. If Tennessee can keep this contest competitive, Purdy could easily push into that range. His supporting cast offers multiple paths to a strong passing line. George Kittle remains a mismatch at tight end, capable of exploiting seams and intermediate zones. Jauan Jennings thrives on physical routes that convert in high-leverage spots. Ricky Pearsall and Kendrick Bourne have each shown the ability to pop for 100-yard games when game plans tilt in their favor. Christian McCaffrey, finally, provides a catch floor that few backs can match, with at least four receptions in all but one game. Against a defense that just watched Dylan Sampson carve them up as a receiver out of the backfield, the 49ers have no shortage of ways to stress coverage.
Tennessee simply cannot find a consistent solution against opposing passing games. They sit in the bottom tier in passing yards allowed and near the basement in yards per attempt. Opponents often do not need to throw heavily because they build leads early, yet they still generate strong per-play efficiency. Last week's performance against the Browns was particularly alarming. Rookie Shedeur Sanders, who had stepped into a difficult situation, looked completely comfortable while throwing for 364 yards and three touchdowns. He did most of his damage on short and intermediate concepts, screens, and rhythm throws, but the Titans still could not rally to limit the damage. Their scheme too often leaves large cushions and wide open areas in the middle of the field. Tackling after the catch remains inconsistent, which leads to explosive plays from what should be modest completions. Timing-based offenses that work the middle and use play action have repeatedly exposed these flaws. Even with concerns about potential game flow if the 49ers jump ahead early, the matchup remains favorable because Tennessee has struggled to slow primary receivers and backs in the passing game. San Francisco can deploy multiple players as de facto WR1s on any given drive, and that versatility aligns perfectly with the Titans' greatest defensive weaknesses.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
