"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
--Rita Mae Brown
That must be me because this is the column where I take bold swings and strike out repeatedly. Usually, it's f--ing ugly. Last year? Let's take a look...
Last Year's Insanity
- J.K. Dobbins Delivers An RB1 Season:
- Jaleel McLaughlin Is A Fantasy Starter
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Disappoints
Dobbins finished as RB24 with 13 starts last year. He was RB14 from Weeks 1-12.
McLaughlin was RB46 -- not remotely a fantasy starter.
Harrison? This one I got.
With an Average Draft Position (ADP) of WR15, Harrison finished the season as WR30 in PPR formats. Citing Kyler Murray's flaws, Harrison's issues attacking and tracking specific targets, and Harrison's issues acclimating to NFL press coverage, I had Harrison as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
Overall, these calls were far from pristine, but not so ugly.
It doesn't mitigate the fact that most bold calls are f--ng ugly. Still, I'm not trying to make these bold calls a vanity column to market myself next summer.
It's more fun to wade into the darkness. Hit on a bold call that borders on insanity, and it can make a huge difference for your fantasy team. Hit on two, and you're winning championships. Hit on more than two, and you're winning every eligible prize your league offers on the way to becoming a legend.
If you whiff on a pick like these, you didn't make a huge investment. If you avoided the wrong player (see Tetairoa McMillan below), you probably got a commensurate value unless he became a historical exception.
Last year's bold predictions were just good enough that I didn't completely whiff. That snaps my disastrous streak with this annual exercise.
Regardless, you must have a cornerback's mentality with bold calls. A good set of reps doesn't mean you're immune from getting burned with the next one.
Insanity Call No. 1: Tetairoa McMillan Disappoints
ESPN has declared McMillan a league-winning fantasy pick after the Adam Thielen trade. Mike Clay projects a 132-target, 83-catch, 1,121-yard, and 7-touchdown rookie year.
McMillan has an ADP of WR25, placing him on equal terms with Xavier Worthy, DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, and Calvin Ridley. Five of these six options are proven receivers, and Worthy has shown enough to earn optimism within this tier, especially with Rashee Rice's suspension and injury rehab. Insanity.
McMillan's value is predicated on his first-round rookie status, which has ingrained latent biases for a receiver's size and college production. McMillan's street cred in fantasy circles earned further reinforcement when veteran Adam Thielen praised McMillan's knowledge of the game in May and June.
Thielen hasn't watched McMillan against primary corners, against press coverage, or catch the ball when the lights come on. Thielen's take isn't insanity; it's an excellent receiver with zero experience analyzing development at his position.
Combine these factors with Carolina lacking a true primary option in its corps, and McMillan is earning some of the Marvin Harrison Jr. treatment in fantasy drafts that we saw last year. McMillan's ADP is 10 spots lower than Harrison's for two reasons:
- McMillan didn't earn the "next great wide receiver" buzz that Harrison did.
- Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is an underrated emerging force rather than an overrated option like Kyler Murray. Betting on Murray to support multiple fantasy receivers with weekly value is insanity.
If McMillan earns significant time in the slot all year as the Drake London of Carolina, I can see how that translates to weekly fantasy value. McMillan's best immediate fit in the NFL is the big slot, because he must prove that he's much better against press coverage than his college tape.