The Top 10: Week 2

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 2 Matt Waldman Published 09/09/2025

© Brett Davis-Imagn Images fantasy football top 10

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 1'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section. 

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Michael Penix Jr. showed the decision-making, pocket poise, and legs to be a legit fantasy starter.
  2. We expected Emeka Egbuka to shine early, but Kayshon Boutte could deliver as a discount Egbuka. 
  3. Calvin Austin III is a more evolved Wan'Dale Robinson. He might emerge as a Tyler Lockett producer.
  4. Is Omarion Hampton good? Yes. Is he a bell-cow back? With big leads, yes. Otherwise, no. Najee comin'. 
  5. This year, DeAndre Hopkins could be that outlier WR with strong TD totals and low target share.
  6. Separation? We don't need no stinkin' separation for Keon Coleman with Joe Brady at the helm in Buffalo.
  7. Harold Fannin Jr. could be here to stay. What to monitor and when to invest.  
  8. Don't Be Deluded: Quick hits on players who should lead you to swoon or tilt. 
  9. Short-Term Rentals/Long-Term Potential: Who can help now, later, or now and later? 
  10. Rollercoasters: Whose values will be volatile, but potentially worth the ride? 

1. Michael Penix Jr. Is Worth the Investment

Whether it's dynasty or redraft, Michael Penix Jr. should be on your "invest" list. A superficial view of Atlanta's performance against Tampa Bay could leave you feeling uncertain: 

  • Atlanta's pre-snap execution of the offense was slow. 
  • Bijan Robinson wasn't involved enough on the ground to slow the pass rush.
  • Penix didn't attack enough downfield with his trademark arm.
  • There were few noteworthy plays from receivers and tight ends. 
  • The offensive flow felt tentative and out of sync. 

Most of these points are true. Now, let's examine them with supporting context. 

  • Tampa Bay used a lot of blitzes that forced Penix to make a lot of late pre-snap adjustments at the line.
  • Tampa Bay keyed 3-5 defenders on Robinson in the run game -- mitigating his value as a ball-carrier. 
  • Penix made excellent pre-snap adjustments to generate quick-hitting plays against a variety of blitzes.
  • Tampa's blitzes forced a lot more short and intermediate passing, often to backs and tight ends. 
  • The disguised blitzes, combined with all of Atlanta's shifts in its offense, led to Atlanta taking most of the 30-second clock to adjust and execute. 

The context shows that Penix managed the game like a veteran. He didn't turn the ball over, and he only took one sack despite the constant blitzing. 

Penix displayed what can happen when a quarterback plays mature football. 

Penix, with his arm and his legs, was one play shy of winning this game, and his performance took Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to the wire. Penix did it despite Drake London dropping three excellent throws that hit him on the hands, and Darnell Mooney being inactive. 

Penix even involved Kyle Pitts Sr., aka Milk Carton, enough to be open-minded about a possible (not probable, yet) fantasy resurgence as the season unfolds. 

Penix is no Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels as a ball carrier, but when he decides to run, he can move the chains and occasionally earn larger chunks of yardage. If there's a player with a shot to remind old-timers of Warren Moon, Penix is the best candidate. 

Congratulations if you drafted Penix this year. He's on a trajectory to become the bargain you anticipated. Add him if he's available. 

2. Emeka Egbuka and AKA "Big Lots Egbuka"

Egbuka was the least shocking fantasy development among wide receivers. The rookie learned all three positions in training camp in no time  -- something Baker Mayfield hadn't seen from a first-year option in the NFL. 

With Chris Godwin a month and some change away from contributing, Egbuka performed like a seasoned veteran. 

Egbuka also earned the game-winner on a well-executed deep post that earned a perfect throw from Mayfield. Expect Egbuka to deliver fantasy starter value for the next 5-7 weeks. Here's why: 

  • He's good and versatile, so he can earn targets with most routes and coverages anywhere on the field. 
  • Opposing defenses will be spending the first 5-7 weeks erring toward Mike Evans. 
  • Chris Godwin will need at least 5-7 weeks to reacclimate to the field. 
  • NFL teams usually accumulate 5-7 weeks of scouting data before they implement it into their game plans. 

Start Egbuka if you've got him. Chris Godwin's imminent return and 5-7 weeks of scouting intel on Egbuka, and the Buccaneers offense will increase Egbuka's volatility as a high-ceiling performer. Still, don't expect him to disappear after teams apply their research to the defensive game plan, like we saw with Chase Claypool.

If you don't have Egbuka, you're paying a premium to land him. In most cases, it won't be worthwhile. Instead, head over to Fantasy Big Lots and add Kayshon Boutte if you didn't pay attention to last week's recommendations to do so. 

Boutte looked every bit like the reliable and productive option who had the trust of Drake Maye that venerable beat reporter Tom E. Curran shared last week. Maye appeared most comfortable throwing to Boutte and Hunter Henry. 

Boutte, one of my favorite rookie options at the receiver position in 2023, looks like the mix of Robert Woods and Jarvis Landry that I saw from him at LSU. Sounds a little like Jakobi Meyers with Josh McDaniels.

Could Stefon Diggs emerge as a receiver who earns 6-8 targets per game and relegate Boutte to 4-6, flip-flopping the current dynamic? Possible, but not probable with Diggs' age, knee injury, and familiarity with Maye and the offense. 

Boutte was a first- or second-day talent whose injury and gambling forays sank his draft stock. He worked his way up within a Patriots organization that mostly gave him the side eye as a rookie. 

Mike Vrabel likes Boutte. Drake Maye trusts him. I valued him enough to trade Diggs and Tank Bigsby for Boutte and a second-round pick last week in our Footballguys IDP Dynasty league. I probably could have gotten more, but I didn't a lot of scrutiny of the offer. 

With Bigsby an Eagle and out of the running for the Jaguars' job, I think I can call this a win if Saquon Barkley stays healthy.

If you need a discount starter, Boutte could over-deliver this year. The price point was perfect last week. It might remain that way this week. Find out. 

3. There's Always Calvin Austin III AKA "WanDale with Upgrades"

If you want evidence that NFL organizations logo scout, Wan'Dale Robinson ahead of Calvin Austin III is a compelling argument. Robinson is a capable slot receiver. Scheme plays to get him wide open downfield, and Robinson will generate a big play. 

Robinson is not a strong boundary player with contested-catch skills and route-running against true cover corners. Austin can do everything Robinson can do and what Robinson can't. 

Robinson played in the SEC. Austin played for Memphis. And if you ask me, Central Michigan's Khalil Pimpleton was more compelling than Robinson, but he arrived in Detroit as an undrafted free agent with Amon-Ra St. Brown in tow. Pimpleton is tearing up the CFL as a leading receiver and return specialist for his squad.

The reason the stats haven't borne out Austin's superiority is three-fold: Austin has been injured, he has had equal-to-worse quarterback play for most of his Steeler career, and he has been used more often as an outside and/or downfield receiver. 

We saw signs from Austin throughout. Mitchell Trubisky talked up Austin as a rookie before an injury cost Austin legitimate playing time until later in the year, when he had some notable moments. In year two, Austin built on those with Russell Wilson, who compared Austin to a young Tyler Lockett. 

Enter Aaron Rodgers. Now, Austin has a quarterback who can pull the Lockett from him. 

Austin also drew a fourth-quarter defensive pass interference after beating the Steelers' man coverage on a vertical route.

DK Metcalf is the primary receiver, but he's an adventure in that role -- not always in the best sense. Rodgers will find ways to maximize Metcalf's size and speed as he works across the field and as a big-play option with play-action, but Metcalf has always been more volatile as a contested-catch weapon than his size leads you to believe. 

Austin might be the best all-around wide receiver on the Steelers when considering speed, routes, ball carrying, and contested-catch skill. At such a low price tag, it's worth adding him to find out if Austin can emerge as the Rust Belt's Lockett. 

4. Half A Glass: Omarion Hampton

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Tags:
fantasy football 2025 Matt Waldman Footballguys Top 10 Omarion Hampton emeka egbuka calvin austin DeAndre Hopkins Keon Coleman Breece Hall Kayshon Boutte Harold Fannin Jr. Michael Penix week 2
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