Roundtable: Rookie QB Roulette

The Footballguys roundtable staff discusses the current start-sit value of Shedeur Sanders and Tayler Shough.

Matt Waldman's Roundtable: Rookie QB Roulette Matt Waldman Published 12/11/2025

 © Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images roundtable

Welcome to Week 15 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

Let's roll...

Matt Waldman: Rookie quarterbacks often have a schematic advantage during the first 6-8 starts of their careers because opposing teams don't take too many defensive chances against them. NFL teams like to wait 4-6 weeks, at least, to use intel from scouting reports to act on what they've seen from the rookies.  

For the past three weeks, Shedeur Sanders and Tyler Shough have delivered top-12 production. 

Here are four quarterbacks with proven games, but who have delivered subpar fantasy value during the same period of weeks. They may have questionable value during the fantasy playoffs: 

Would you start one of these rookies ahead of these veterans? Which rookie and which veteran would you replace? It can be any range of answers: zero to all four.

Dave Kluge: Lamar Jackson looked a bit more like his usual self last week. Baker Mayfield is getting his healthy group of receivers back. Brock Purdy has really only had one bad fantasy game this year. Justin Herbert, however, terrifies me.

In the five games where Joe Alt has played at least 40 percent of the snaps, Herbert averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game. In the nine games without Alt, that number falls to 14.4. That is the difference between being the per-game QB1 and the QB30.

In addition to losing his bookend tackles, Herbert is dealing with a fracture in his non-throwing hand. I would comfortably start Shedeur Sanders and Tyler Shough ahead of him through the fantasy playoffs.  

Meng Song: Tyler Shough has produced well enough to be in consideration over a struggling Baker Mayfield and a one-handed Justin Herbert. Shough struggled on the road against an elite Rams defense in his first NFL start, but since then, the rookie has played well in three of four games. More importantly, Shough has been willing to run. He's now averaged seven rushing attempts per game in the last three weeks coming out of the bye. 

That rushing production gives him a fairly high fantasy floor and ceiling each week, as we saw on Sunday with two rushing touchdowns against the Buccaneers. The Panthers are a tough matchup for quarterbacks this week. However, Shough will be at home in a dome, and he's already torched Carolina for a career-high 282 passing yards and 2 touchdowns in their Week 10 upset win.

On the other hand, I absolutely would not bench Brock Purdy in the fantasy playoffs. In his three games since returning from the toe injury, Purdy has been fine. He finished as the fantasy QB5 in Week 11 against Arizona and was the QB16 even on the road facing an elite Cleveland defense in Week 13. He played poorly against Carolina in Week 12, but we've seen that the Panthers' defense is underrated and sneakily very good against the pass (bottom-five in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks).

More importantly, fantasy managers couldn't ask for a better fantasy playoff schedule than what Purdy has. This week, he's in warm weather at home facing a Tennessee defense that's allowed nine total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the last four games since their bye.

In Week 16, Purdy will be on the road in a dome facing an Indianapolis defense that could still be without their top cornerback, Sauce Gardner, due to a calf strain. And in the fantasy championship week, Purdy will be at home against a Chicago defense that's top-10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Assuming Purdy has a healthy Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle for the next three weeks, he could be a league winner.

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