There is a word that strikes fear into even the bravest of men. One word that sends a shiver down the spines of all who hear it. A word that inspires dread from the Dimrill Dale to the halls of Helms Deep.
That word is Sauron.
Wait. That's The Lord of the Rings, not fantasy football.
My bad.
No, the word that strikes the most despair into the hearts of fantasy managers is even worse than Sauron's all-seeing eye. More spine-chilling than Saruman and his army of Uruk-Hai.
Bust.
Drafting a player early who goes on to fall flat on his face can drag a season into the abyss faster than a Balrog. Busts can steal any chance of winning a championship from managers faster than that sniveling little jerk Gollum. Destroy any chance of victory more rapidly than the Witch-King of Angmar.
Wonder what percentage of people reading this have no earthly clue what the hell I'm talking about. If you don't, shame on you. Read the book(s). Watch the movies. Get some culture.
Some busts are all but unavoidable. They are harder to detect for mere mortals than Frodo wearing the One Ring. But with other players, there are warning signs galore that the season to come is fraught with peril, much like every second that Gollum draws breath.
Spoiler alert—he can't be trusted.
And for fantasy managers who do not heed those warnings, the 2026 season will end in certain doom.
Was that pouring it on a little thick?
Quarterback Busts
Jayden Daniels, Washington (ADP: QB5)
Two years ago, Daniels was a revelation as a rookie—the 25-year-old completed 69 percent of his passes, topped 3,500 passing yards, gained more rushing yards than any quarterback in the NFC and finished as a top-five quarterback in fantasy points. But Daniels' sophomore season was another story altogether—he played in just seven games and finished the year with fewer fantasy points than Joe Flacco and J.J. McCarthy.
Ouch.
Fantasy managers appear to expect Daniels to recapture his rookie glories in 2026, but the question is why? It's not just a matter of injury, although Daniels' tendency to try to gain every possible yard while scrambling doesn't help. Whether it's completion percentage, passing yards per game, or on-target percentage, Daniels' passing numbers all took a sizable hit in 2025. He's learning a new offense under a 30-year-old first-time coordinator. And the Commanders didn't do much to improve Daniels' passing-game weapons this year.
The top five isn't Daniels' fantasy ceiling. It's wishful thinking.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia (ADP: QB6)
Like Daniels, Hurts is learning a new offense (again) in 2026 under Sean Mannion. While speaking to reporters, Mannion said that he's trying to tailor his scheme around what his players (and quarterback) do well.
"It's about maximizing things for the players," he said. "How do we make the Eagles the best team we can be, and how to make the Eagles offense the best it can be, and how do we put all of our players in a position to really succeed and maximize their strengths."
That's all well and good, but in two of the past three seasons the Eagles have not been especially good offensively. Last year, Hurts had fewer yards and just one more touchdown pass than Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles added Makai Lemon at wide receiver but traded A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots. And Hurts has equaled this draft spot at season's end just twice in five years as Philly's starter.
Don't overpay just because he can run.
Running Back Busts
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: RB4)
This doddypoll has already stated more than once that drafting Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers as a top-three running back this year is begging for disaster. It's like calling Smaug a big scaly dummy and then smacking it on the snout.
It's a dragon—still beating the Tolkien thing to death.
But taking Taylor with the very next pick in Round 1 isn't much better. Yes, Taylor had a great 2025, rushing for almost 1,600 yards and pacing the league with 18 rushing touchdowns on the way to a fourth-place finish in PPR points. But from Week 11 on last year, Taylor wasn't even a top-20 fantasy back. There are multiple questions on offense in Indianapolis this year. The offensive line isn't what it once was. And perhaps most importantly, the last time Taylor had as many touches as he did in 2025, he missed six games the following year.
Taylor is far more likely to land outside the top 10 than inside the top five this year.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay (ADP: RB20)
Fantasy drafters have a rather nasty habit of trying their level best to talk themselves into believing that that which will not be repeated can be. That's the case with Tampa's Bucky Irving in 2026.
Irving had himself a year in 2024—as a rookie, he topped 1,100 rushing yards, caught 47 passes, scored eight times, and finished 14th in PPR points at his position. But last year was a far more depressing tale—Irving missed seven games, averaged a moribund 3.4 yards per carry, and didn't crack the top 30 in fantasy points.
Irving is still working his way back from shoulder surgery. The Buccaneers added Kenneth Gainwell in free agency, who surpassed 1,000 total yards in Pittsburgh a year ago. Tampa also brought back Sean Tucker, who led the team with seven rushing scores in 2025.
Explain to me where RB2 upside is coming from here. Explain it to me like I'm five.